MANTRA (OM) Teeters at S1: Fade the Pivot Bounce Toward 0.205

Executive summary

• Bias (next 24h): Mildly bearish. Expect a relief bounce toward 0.218–0.221 followed by continuation lower into 0.206–0.209. A downside test of 0.203–0.205 is possible if momentum accelerates.
• Strategy: Fade the bounce. Optimal short entry around the daily pivot zone near 0.219–0.220 with tight invalidation above 0.223–0.226. Target the 0.205–0.206 liquidity pocket.
• R/R: Entry 0.2198, stop 0.2249 (−2.3%), take profit 0.2056 (+6.5%). Risk-reward ~2.8:1.

Market structure and trend

• Higher-timeframe trend (daily): Downtrend since the Jul 20 spike to ~0.39. Lower highs (0.276 on Jul 23, 0.274 on Jul 25, ~0.262 on Aug 1, ~0.252 on Aug 22, ~0.236–0.233 on Aug 28) and lower lows culminating in Aug 29 low ~0.2095. Current price 0.2141 is below all recent swing pivot areas. Structure is bearish.
• Medium timeframe (4h): Descending channel from late July. Upper bound ~0.233–0.236, lower bound ~0.208–0.211. Price trades near the lower rail; mean-reversion bounces are failing below prior 4h lower highs (now ~0.222–0.224). This favors selling rallies rather than chasing breakdowns.
• Intraday (1h): Sequence of lower highs in the last 24h: ~0.2223 → ~0.2198 → ~0.2166 → ~0.2162 → ~0.2147. Lows stair-stepping down. Microstructure supports a bounce-to-sell setup.

Support and resistance (confluence levels)

• Immediate supports: 0.2147 (S1 from prior day pivot), 0.2122 (Aug 30 low), 0.2095 (Aug 29 low), 0.206–0.205 (projected extension and band support), 0.201–0.200 (June swing and psychological), 0.196–0.195 (June 22 low zone).
• Immediate resistances: 0.2188 (classic pivot from 08/30 H/L/C), 0.2205–0.2215 (intraday supply), 0.223–0.2266 (Aug 28 supply and R1/R2 band), 0.230–0.233 (daily supply, late Aug closes), 0.236–0.240 (dense supply cluster), 0.248–0.252 (major supply shelf).

Moving averages (daily approximation)

• 20D SMA is trending down and sits well above spot (~0.24–0.245). Price is below the 20D SMA: bearish momentum regime.
• 50D SMA likely in the ~0.25–0.26 region, also above price: confirms higher-timeframe downtrend.
• EMAs (12/26): 12D EMA below 26D EMA; the spread has been widening since mid-August. No bullish crossover risk near term.

Momentum indicators

• RSI (daily, est.): Mid-30s, weakly oversold but not extreme; this supports small bounces that get sold. RSI(1h) likely in 35–45 range on pumps, failing to crack 50–55: bearish intraday momentum.
• Stochastic (daily): Hovering near oversold; can fuel an intraday bounce, but trend pressure remains down.
• MACD (daily): Below zero with histogram negative/slightly contracting; any bounce likely produces a weak bull histogram that stalls under the signal.

Volatility and range

• ATR (daily, est.): ~0.011–0.013. With current price ~0.214, a 24h typical range of ±0.008–0.013 is consistent with a bounce to ~0.219–0.221 and a drop toward ~0.206–0.209.
• Bollinger Bands (20D, est.): Mid-band ~0.245, lower band in the ~0.205–0.215 area. Price camping near the lower band: supports a bounce attempt, but sustained closes below the band mid are bearish until a mean reversion overtakes 0.233–0.236.

Ichimoku (daily/4h qualitative)

• Price below Kumo, Tenkan below Kijun, and Chikou below price/cloud: fully bearish stack on daily.
• On 4h, price below cloud with flat Kijun around ~0.226: suggests magnetic pull to ~0.224–0.226 on strong bounces, but failure there typically resumes downtrend.

Fibonacci analysis

• Major swing: Jul 20 high 0.3899 to Aug 29 low 0.2095.
  • 23.6%: ~0.252 (rejected Aug 22).
  • 38.2%: ~0.279 (failed end-July/early-August). Staying below 0.252 keeps bears in control.
• Minor intraday swing: Aug 30 low 0.21216 to Aug 30 high 0.22297.
  • 61.8% retrace: ~0.2158 (recently broken, now resistance on microstructure).
  • 78.6%: ~0.2141 (exact current area). Failure to reclaim 0.216–0.217 suggests a measured move extension to ~0.206.

Classical pivot points (using 08/30 H=0.222966, L=0.212162, C=0.221388)

• Pivot P: 0.21884
• R1: 0.22552 | R2: 0.22964 | R3: 0.23632
• S1: 0.21471 | S2: 0.20804 | S3: 0.20391 Interpretation: Spot is near S1 and below P; the high-odds intraday play is a mean reversion to P (0.2188–0.2190) that fades back toward S1/S2. R1 unlikely without strong buy bursts; if R1 trades and holds, bears stand aside until 0.229–0.230.

Channel/Donchian context

• 20D Donchian high well above (0.2998 on Aug 11) and low ~0.2095 (Aug 29). Price hugging the lower third indicates trend persistence. Break below 0.2095 unlocks 0.203–0.205 quickly.

Volume/flow

• Volume peaked July 20–22 and has since waned. Recent down days (Aug 28–29) carried heavier volume than up days → distribution. Aug 30 bounce to 0.223 printed lighter volume and failed to advance: classic bear-market rally behavior.
• OBV/CMF (qualitative): No evidence of accumulation; balance of flow favors supply on rallies.

Candles and intraday patterns

• The last 24h show small-bodied candles with lower highs and persistent closes near session lows, consistent with supply overhead. No authoritative reversal pattern (no bullish engulfing or hammer on strong volume) is present.

VWAP

• Intraday/daily VWAP likely sits near the pivot region (~0.219). Price below VWAP → sell rallies into VWAP until proven otherwise.

ADX (trend strength)

• Daily ADX estimated low-to-mid 20s: established but not extreme trend. That supports continued drift lower with episodic mean-reversion pops.

Scenarios (next 24h)

1. Base case (60%): Bounce toward 0.218–0.221 (pivot/VWAP), failure below 0.223, roll over to 0.209–0.206. Potential late-session wick toward 0.203–0.205 if liquidity thins.
2. Bear acceleration (20%): Minimal bounce; swift sweep of 0.212–0.210, continuation to 0.205 with momentum. Shallow bounces capped under 0.217.
3. Bull surprise (20%): Acceptance above 0.223 on 1–4h closes, squeeze to 0.229–0.233. Larger sellers likely defend 0.233–0.236; only a sustained reclaim of 0.236 flips the daily bias.

Trade plan and risk

• Setup: Short the pivot bounce (fade into resistance with trend alignment).
• Entry: 0.2198 (limit). This places the fill slightly above the classic pivot and near intraday supply, increasing R/R and probability of fill.
• Stop (invalidation guidance): 0.2249–0.2266 zone. A firm hourly close above 0.2249 indicates supply absorption and opens R1/R2. For planning we use 0.2249.
• Take profit: 0.2056, in front of S2 (0.2080) and ahead of the 0.2039–0.2050 liquidity shelf, to increase fill probability within 24h.
• Optional scaling: Add 30% more at 0.2215 if momentum stalls under 0.223 (keeps average ~0.2205) with the same stop.
• If no bounce: Consider a momentum add-on only after a clean 1h close below 0.212 with a tight stop back above 0.2147; however, primary plan is to wait for the bounce to improve R/R.

Why short, not long?

• Trend alignment: Price below key MAs, below daily pivot, below intraday VWAP; lower highs persist.
• Resistance clustering: 0.2188–0.221 and 0.223–0.226 stack multiple frameworks (pivot, fib, prior supply, Ichimoku levels).
• Limited upside vs nearby heavy supply; downside air pockets exist to 0.206–0.205, especially if 0.212 gives way again.

Invalidation and flip

• If price reclaims and holds above 0.223–0.226 (hourly close and follow-through), abandon shorts and reassess for a squeeze toward 0.229–0.233.

Time expectation

• Bounce attempt likely within 4–10 hours as Asia/Europe sessions rotate; follow-through lower by 12–24 hours as US/late-session liquidity thins.

Summary call

• Short-term rallies are for selling until 0.223–0.226 is reclaimed. Use 0.219–0.220 to initiate, target 0.205–0.206 within 24 hours.