OM slips beneath 0.21: sell the S2 retest, aim for S3 into 0.196

Thesis in one sentence: OM has broken a well-defined 0.21–0.213 daily support with increasing intraday sell pressure; expect a weak bounce into 0.203–0.206 that should fail and roll toward 0.196 (pivot S3/June base). Optimal plan: sell the retest of broken support and cover into 0.196x.

1. Multi-timeframe price action and structure

• Higher timeframe (Daily):

  • Clear downtrend of lower highs/lower lows since the July 20 blow-off (H: 0.3899). Post-spike retracement has unwound back toward the pre-pump base (0.195–0.201). Recent daily closes: 8/29 0.2137, 8/30 0.2214, 8/31 0.2117, now 0.1996 intraday — a decisive break below the 0.21–0.213 shelf from late Aug.
  • Key supports: 0.201–0.205 (now converted to resistance intraday), 0.196–0.197 (pivot S3 and June swing zone), 0.1953 (6/22 low), 0.191–0.192 (measured extension risk). Resistances: 0.2039–0.206 (S2/pullback sell zone), 0.210–0.213 (broken shelf), 0.221–0.224 (8/30 high/volume node).
  • Pattern view: August consolidated in a descending channel with a small bear-flag between 8/22–8/28 (0.229–0.235) that broke on 8/29, was retested on 8/30, and is now continuing lower. Today’s sub-0.20 print confirms momentum.

• Intraday (Hourly):

  • Sequence of lower highs/lows all day 9/1. Acceleration candle at 20:00 UTC dumped to 0.1984 on higher volume, then a small uptick to 0.1996. Typical behavior after such a flush is a weak mean-reversion pop toward immediate resistance, then continuation lower.
  • Liquidity map: Thin pocket 0.198–0.204 from earlier; expect price to probe back into 0.203–0.205 (prior intraday support and daily S2) to fill, where sellers likely reassert.

2. Trend and moving averages

• Daily SMA/EMA:
  • 20D SMA ≈ 0.241 (estimated from last 20 closes) — price is ~17% below, indicating strong downside momentum and an extended state relative to the mean.
  • 50D SMA ≈ mid-0.25s; 200D likely higher still. Bearish alignment (price < 20SMA < 50SMA) confirms macro downtrend.
  • EMAs (12/26): price is below both; the gap has widened since 8/29, reflecting momentum expansion.
• Intraday MAs (1H): fast EMAs are fanned bearishly and above price; any rally into the 1H 21/34 EMA cluster near 0.204–0.206 is a short setup.

3. Momentum and oscillators

• RSI (Daily 14): drifting in the mid-30s with a fresh downswing today; not yet deeply oversold on daily, leaving room for continuation.
• RSI (1H 14): oversold into the 20:00 UTC dump (likely high-20s/low-30s), supportive of a small bounce before another leg down.
• MACD (Daily): negative and diverging; histogram has been expanding since 8/28–29, indicating increasing downside momentum.
• Stochastic (1H/D1): 1H embedded bear with potential brief reset on bounce; daily crossing down and likely to remain pressured below 20 until price stabilizes near 0.196.

4. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) Daily: approx 0.011–0.013. From 0.1996, an average move implies 0.187–0.211 in 24h. This brackets a likely reversion test to ~0.204–0.206 and a continuation swing into ~0.196 ± 0.002.
• Hourly ATR: ~0.002–0.003, consistent with an initial bounce attempt of a few tenths of a cent followed by push lower.

5. Bollinger, Keltner, and bands

• Bollinger Bands (20,2) Daily: mid-band ≈ 0.241; lower band estimated ≈ 0.20–0.202. Current price is at/just beneath the lower band, a typical area for a short-lived mean-reversion bounce but, within a trend, often a “walk-the-band” continuation after the first rebound fails.
• Keltner Channels: price hugging/breaching the lower KC supports continuation after minor reversion.

6. Volume, OBV, and money flow

• Volume profile: Heavy nodes in 0.22–0.24 (now far above). The 0.203–0.206 zone had recent participation and should act as supply on retest. The 20:00 UTC hour saw elevated sell volume relative to the day, suggesting a momentum continuation day.
• OBV/CMF (inferred): distribution since 8/28–8/31; negative money flow bias aligns with price action.

7. Pivots and levels (Classic, based on 8/31 H/L/C = 0.22245/0.21128/0.21171)

• Pivot P ≈ 0.21515, R1 ≈ 0.21901, R2 ≈ 0.22631, R3 ≈ 0.23018
• S1 ≈ 0.20784, S2 ≈ 0.20398, S3 ≈ 0.19668
• Current price 0.1996 sits between S2 and S3. High-probability behavior: rally attempt toward S2 (≈0.204) followed by a test of S3 (≈0.1967). This lines up with structural supports (June lows ~0.195–0.197).

8. Fibonacci and extensions

• From the July blow-off (0.3899) to the August downtrend, price has retraced the majority of the move and is testing the pre-pump base. Using the 8/21–8/30 swing (approx 0.2436→0.2113), the 1.272–1.414 downside extensions project ~0.199–0.196 — precisely where price is now headed. A full 1.618 extension would target ~0.191–0.192 on overshoot.

9. Ichimoku (contextual)

• Daily: price below cloud; Lagging Span beneath price and beneath cloud; future cloud thin and red — strong bearish regime.
• 4H/1H: price below cloud with conversion/base lines above price; rallies into the Tenkan/Kijun area (~0.204–0.207) are typically sold in such regimes.

10. Market microstructure and liquidity

• Break of 0.21–0.213 swept resting liquidity and triggered stops. The next dense liquidity cluster is 0.196–0.197 (S3/June lows). Expect algorithms to push into that pocket after a bounce refills short inventory at 0.204–0.206.
• If 0.196 breaks cleanly on momentum or broader market weakness, a fast liquidity vacuum to ~0.191–0.192 (1.618 ext) is possible before a sharper mean-reversion.

11. Risk, invalidation, and scenario planning (24h)

• Base case (60%): bounce to 0.203–0.206 in early Asia/Europe, fail under 0.207, then grind/drop to 0.196 ± 0.002; possible intraday wick to ~0.194–0.195; late session close ~0.198–0.200.
• Bear extension (25%): shallow bounce stalls ≤0.203, momentum resumes, breaks 0.196 quickly, tags 0.192 ± 0.001.
• Bull surprise (15%): reclaim 0.207–0.209, then 0.210–0.213; daily close back above 0.211 would neutralize immediate downside and open 0.219–0.224 retest. Invalidation for the short thesis intraday is sustained trade >0.209–0.211 with volume.

12. Trade plan synthesis

• Edge: short the retest of S2/old support at ~0.204 where multiple frameworks converge (hourly EMAs, Ichimoku Tenkan/Kijun underside, Bollinger mid on 1H, and daily S2).
• Target: cover ahead of S3/June base at ~0.196 to front-run reactive buying. Secondary stretch target (not required but noted) ~0.191–0.192 on extension.
• Why not long here? Although daily lower band suggests a bounce, the higher-timeframe trend and fresh breakdown favor rallies being sold. Better R:R to fade the bounce than to knife-catch into a heavy downtrend.

Forecast next 24 hours: Expect a recovery attempt to 0.203–0.206 early, followed by renewed selling into 0.196; tails can probe 0.194–0.195 if momentum persists. Any sustained reclaim above 0.209–0.211 would invalidate the short bias and shift to neutral/mean-reversion.

Decision: Sell (Short) on a bounce into 0.2039; take profit at 0.1962. Optional protective stop (not requested): 0.2096 to keep RR ≈ 1.3–1.5, with extension profits available if 0.196 breaks.