OM coiling below 0.222: Bullish grind targets 0.226–0.227 within 24 hours

Summary view

• Instrument: MANTRA (OM), USD quote
• Current price: 0.21984866
• Timeframe assessed: Daily trend context, 4H/1H/15m execution context from provided hourly series
• Thesis (24h): Mildly bullish continuation toward 0.222–0.227 after a constructive multi-session grind higher; best risk-adjusted entry on a shallow pullback into 0.218–0.2189, targeting a push into the 0.226–0.227 zone, with downside cushion at 0.216–0.217.

1. Multi-timeframe trend and structure Daily trend

• Post-parabolic spike (July 20 high ~0.3899) transitioned into a broad downtrend and then a multi-week base. Since Sep 1 low (0.2005), OM is building higher closes with intermittent shakeouts (notably Sep 15 close 0.2058), and has recovered back above the 20D mean.
• Higher-lows sequence (recent): 0.2005 (Sep 1) → 0.1998 (Sep 4 marginal) → 0.2068 (Sep 6) → 0.2094 (Sep 7) → 0.2058 (Sep 15 shakeout) → 0.2133 (Sep 16) → 0.2164 (Sep 17) → 0.2198 (today, in progress). Despite the Sep 15 dip, price reclaimed and is pressing higher.
• Key daily resistance shelf: 0.2215–0.2245 (recent closing resistance Sep 12–13). Above it, air pocket toward 0.227–0.233.
• Key daily supports: 0.2163–0.2167 cluster, then 0.2130–0.2146, 0.2094, 0.2068, and 0.2058.

Hourly trend (last 24h)

• Steady intraday uptrend with a sequence of higher lows: ~0.2142 → 0.2153 → 0.2163 → 0.2173 → 0.2191 → 0.21985.
• Multiple rejections have occurred near 0.2207–0.2210. This aligns with daily R1/pivot resistance (see pivots below). A clean 1H close above ~0.2212 should unleash momentum into 0.223–0.226.

2. Moving averages and mean-reversion anchors

• 20D SMA (approx): ~0.2124. Current price ~3.5% above, pointing to short-term bullish posture without being stretched.
• 50D SMA (approx): still above price (mid-0.23s), reflecting a broader, unfinished mean-reversion from the July spike. Near-term trend is up, higher timeframe trend neutral/bearish. This creates a “countertrend bounce within a larger consolidation.”
• EMAs (9/21) daily (approx): EMA9 > EMA21 and price > both, a short-term bullish alignment.
• 20D Bollinger Bands (approx):
  • Mid: ~0.212
  • Upper: ~0.226–0.227
  • Lower: ~0.198–0.199 Price is traveling from mid-band toward upper band; typical continuation target is a tag/near-tag of the upper band (~0.226x).

3. Momentum and oscillators

• Daily RSI(14) (computed from provided closes): ~66. This is constructive, short of overbought. It supports continuation but warns to expect supply near resistance bands.
• MACD (daily): Likely crossed above signal recently with histogram rising; bullish momentum building from a low base.
• Stochastic (daily, est.): Upper half of range (~75–80). No hard sell yet; can remain elevated during trends.
• Williams %R (daily, est.): Around -25 to -30; near, but not at, overbought.
• CCI (daily, est.): Positive (+80 to +120), indicating upside momentum.
• DMI/ADX (daily, est.): +DI > -DI; ADX still modest (~18–22), implying a nascent trend rather than a strong one. Enough thrust to carry into nearby resistance, but watch for stalls.

4. Volatility and range statistics

• ATR(14) daily (est.): ~0.008 (3.6% of price). A 1x ATR move from 0.2198 suggests 0.212–0.228 in 24h under typical conditions.
• Current positioning near the mid-to-high of recent ranges suggests a slight positive skew (upper tail to 0.226–0.228) given momentum and structure.

5. Volume and participation

• Volume has been moderate with upticks on green sessions. OBV (qualitatively) has edged higher in the recent bounce phase, consistent with accumulation. No blow-off signatures.
• Today’s hourly profile shows constructive demand near VWAP (~0.217–0.219 est.), with bids showing up on minor dips, a hallmark of controlled grind higher.

6. Price levels by multiple methods (confluence) Pivot points (Classic) using Sep 17 H/L/C (H=0.218131, L=0.206909, C=0.216352):

• P = (H+L+C)/3 ≈ 0.213797
• R1 ≈ 0.220685 (price is hovering just below/around this)
• S1 ≈ 0.209463
• R2 ≈ 0.225019
• S2 ≈ 0.202575
• R3 ≈ 0.231907 Observation: R1 is acting as the immediate gate. A breach/hold above R1 tends to target R2 (~0.225), and with momentum, the 50% retracement (see below) near 0.227 is reachable.

Fibonacci retracement (8/26 swing high 0.248521 to 9/15 swing low 0.205843):

• 38.2%: ~0.22215
• 50%: ~0.22718
• 61.8%: ~0.23220 Observation: Current price is beneath the 38.2% but approaching it; a clean move through 0.222 opens the pathway to 0.227 (50%), then 0.232 (61.8%). This aligns tightly with pivots (R2 ≈ 0.225) and Bollinger upper band (~0.226–0.227).

Supply/demand and horizontal structure

• Supply: 0.2215–0.2245 (recent closes and wicks), then 0.2269–0.2273 (FIB 50% and prior reaction zone), then 0.2330–0.2355 (daily congestion), then 0.241.
• Demand: 0.2180–0.2189 (intraday VWAP and prior breakout retest), then 0.2163–0.2167 (daily close cluster), then 0.2146/0.2130, then 0.2094 and 0.2068.

7. Ichimoku (approximate)

• Price is near or slightly above Tenkan and around Kijun, with a thin/flat forward cloud around current prices. This is typical of early-stage trend resumption; a 1H/4H close above 0.221–0.222 is consistent with a Tenkan-led lift toward the upper targets.

8. Heikin-Ashi / Candlestick read

• Recent sequence of small green bodies (Sep 16–18) resembles early “three advancing soldiers,” albeit with wicks, signaling controlled buying. No reversal pattern currently apparent on daily; intraday candles show shallow pullbacks and absorption near VWAP.

9. Regression/channel and Z-score context

• Short-window linear regression slope (last ~10–12 sessions) is positive.
• 20D Z-score vs SMA: (0.21985 − 0.2124) / ~0.007 ≈ +1.0 to +1.1σ. This leaves room toward +2σ (~0.226–0.227) before a high-probability mean-revert response.

10. Risk framework and scenario analysis (24h) Base case (55% probability)

• Price grinds higher, tags 0.2215–0.2225, breaks/holds, and extends into 0.225–0.227. Intraday high prints in the 0.226–0.2275 region (Bollinger upper band + Pivot R2 + Fib 50%).
• Expected range: Low 0.217–0.2185; High 0.226–0.2275.

Pullback case (30% probability)

• Failure on first attempt at 0.221–0.222; price revisits 0.2167–0.2180 demand, finds bids, and then a second attempt emerges later in the window. Range: 0.216–0.224.

Bear surprise (15% probability)

• A decisive rejection well below 0.221 followed by loss of 0.216 and VWAP, opening 0.213–0.214. Given improving momentum and constructive structure, this is less likely but must be respected.

11. Additional tool checks

• Parabolic SAR (daily, est.): Flipped below price since the Sep 16 recapture; trailing support likely near 0.214–0.215.
• OBV: Gradual upturn matching rising closes—accumulation bias.
• MFI (est.): 55–65, consistent with healthy buying without froth.
• Market microstructure: Intraday prints show buyers stepping in on shallow dips; repeated tests of 0.220–0.221 suggest impending break as overhead supply thins, provided no external shock.

12. Trade plan synthesis

• Edge source: Multi-factor confluence—price above 20D SMA, MACD improving, RSI constructive, R1/Fib/upper band cluster above offering a well-defined target, with nearby demand (0.216–0.218) for risk anchoring.
• Entry tactic: Use a patient limit on a minor dip to align with intraday VWAP and prior breakout-retest zone. If price runs without pullback, momentum entries above 0.2212–0.2215 can be valid, but the optimal risk-adjusted entry is still the dip.
• Targeting: First objective 0.226–0.227 (just under Bollinger upper band and near 50% Fib). This is also just past Pivot R2 (~0.225), capturing the likely extension after an R1 break.

13. What invalidates

• A decisive break and 1H close below 0.216 shifts the short-term to neutral/bearish, increasing the odds of a retest of 0.213–0.214 or even 0.209–0.210. For active risk control, a stop would typically sit just below 0.2147–0.2150 if operating a tactical long. (Not required in outputs, but relevant for risk.)

24-hour price prediction

• Bias: Bullish continuation.
• Expected range: 0.216–0.227.
• Most likely path: Early dip into 0.218–0.219, then a press through 0.221–0.222, extension into 0.226–0.227 by end of the 24h window if momentum persists.

Final conclusion

• The confluence of (i) price reclaiming and holding above the 20D SMA, (ii) RSI in the mid-60s, (iii) MACD improving, (iv) hourly higher lows with absorption near VWAP, and (v) nearby overhead objectives (Pivot R2, Fib 50%, Bollinger upper) supports a Buy-the-dip setup. The optimal open is a limit buy around 0.2188, targeting 0.2268 within 24h if 0.221–0.222 breaks and holds.