OM at a Crossroad: Fade the 38.2% Bounce Into VWAP Supply

Summary view

• Regime: Post-capitulation downtrend with a weak corrective bounce. Structure remains lower highs/lows on the daily chart; price is trading well below the 20/50-day MAs and under a heavy Ichimoku cloud. Bias: mildly bearish for the next 24h with risk of a retest of 0.162–0.159.
• Thesis: The rebound stalled precisely at a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and under the daily Tenkan/Kijun and 20D SMA. Intraday is losing momentum near an anchored VWAP supply zone. Expect mean reversion lower toward the recent demand ledge (0.165→0.162 → 0.158) unless price reclaims 0.178–0.180 with conviction.

Step-by-step technical analysis

1. Price action and structure (Daily)

• July 20 blow-off spike to ~0.39 was followed by a multi-week markdown into the 0.23–0.20s and then a sharp break on Sep 22 to 0.175, with a lower low on Sep 25 to 0.1579. The bounce to 0.1788 (Sep 27) set a lower high; today pulled back to 0.1706. The daily swing sequence remains bearish.
• Key daily levels: • Resistance: 0.1788 (Sep 27 high/38.2% retrace), 0.1851, 0.2005–0.206 (gap fill/old support), 0.213–0.222 supply cluster. • Support: 0.1700 (round/VWAP pivot), 0.1654 (intraday shelf), 0.1625, 0.1579 (cycle low). A break of 0.165 opens 0.162/0.158.
• Pattern context: The sharp down-leg followed by a choppy upward drift is consistent with a bear flag/weak corrective channel. Rejection at 0.178–0.179 fits a corrective 38.2% retracement stall.

2. Moving averages

• 20D SMA ≈ 0.199 (computed from the last 20 closes). Price at 0.1706 is well below, indicating downside momentum vs. mean. Mean-reversion attempts into the 20D have failed for weeks.
• 50D SMA (approx) sits much higher (mid-0.23s) after weeks of distribution and July spike; this reinforces the broader downtrend.
• Daily price < 20D < 50D = classic bearish alignment.

3. Bollinger Bands (20,2)

• Middle band ~ 0.199; lower band estimated near 0.159. Sept 25’s tag of ~0.158 coincided with the lower band and produced a reflex bounce to ~0.179. Current price is between the lower and middle bands and rolling over below the midpoint, which commonly resolves in a retest of the lower band area (0.161–0.159) if the mid band is not reclaimed.

4. RSI/Stochastics (Daily)

• RSI(14) collapsed into oversold on the Sep 22–25 dump, then rebounded. By construction of the recent changes, RSI is recovering from mid-20s/low-30s into the mid-30s/upper-30s range but remains below 50, consistent with a weak bounce in a downtrend. No confirmed bullish divergence vs. the 0.1579 low because momentum improved only modestly.
• Stochastics likely rolled over from a short-lived rebound; that aligns with the loss of thrust after 0.178–0.179.

5. MACD (Daily)

• MACD line below signal and below zero across the broader window; histogram improved during the bounce but is flattening/contracting beneath the zero line. That’s classic of a failing mean-reversion rally.

6. Ichimoku (Daily)

• Tenkan (9) ≈ (last-9 high + low)/2 ≈ (0.211 + 0.158)/2 ≈ 0.1845.
• Kijun (26) ≈ (0.227 + 0.158)/2 ≈ 0.1925.
• Price (0.1706) is below Tenkan and Kijun; Senkou A ≈ 0.188, Senkou B higher given prior range; cloud is above price and bearish. Chikou span is beneath price. Net: full bearish Ichimoku stack.

7. ADX/Trend strength (Daily)

• ADX(14) likely in the mid-20s to low-30s after the strong leg down, indicating a moderate bearish trend that has not fully dissipated. A corrective pause with ADX gradually easing is typical before another attempt lower if key resistances aren’t reclaimed.

8. ATR/Volatility and expected range

• Daily ATR(14) estimated ~0.012–0.014 (7–8% of price) post-break. A 1×ATR projected 24h envelope from 0.1706 gives a rough 0.158–0.183 band. Given momentum and overhead supply, skew is to the lower half of that range.

9. Fibonacci levels

• Using Sep 21 swing ~0.2111 (pre-break) to Sep 25 low 0.1579: • 38.2%: 0.1782 (tagged and rejected at 0.1788) • 50%: 0.1845 (near Tenkan) • 61.8%: 0.1900 (near Kijun/20D underbelly)
• Rejection at 38.2% in a downtrend often implies another leg lower or at least a retest of the lows before any deeper retrace.

10. Volume/OBV/Participation

• Massive distribution volume on the September breakdown; bounce volume on Sep 27 was solid but not trend-changing. OBV on a daily look would still be trending down. Today’s intraday volumes lack follow-through at highs, consistent with seller control at supply.

11. VWAP/Anchored levels

• Intraday anchored VWAP from the Sep 22 breakdown likely tracks ~0.170–0.172. Today’s inability to push and hold above that band suggests supply dominance there. That forms a tactical sell zone for fade setups.

12. Pivot levels (from Sep 27 data)

• P ≈ (H+L+C)/3 = (0.18506 + 0.16245 + 0.17884)/3 ≈ 0.17545.
• R1 ≈ 0.18845; S1 ≈ 0.16584. Price is currently between S1 and P, reflecting overhead resistance density and nearby support shelves.

13. Hourly chart read

• The hourly session drifted lower into 0.165–0.166, bounced to 0.171, and is stalling around 0.170–0.171. Minor higher lows intraday (0.1628 → 0.1654) but capped by supply at 0.171–0.173 and the 0.1788 daily pivot. Hourly momentum is tepid (RSI ~45–50 zone), and candles around 16:00–20:00 show waning thrust near resistance.
• Micro levels: 0.171–0.173 is a sticky supply pocket; 0.1689–0.1694 is an inflection; a loss of 0.167 opens 0.1654 → 0.1628.

14. Wyckoff lens

• Post-markdown rally shows qualities of an automatic rally to 0.178–0.179 and secondary test failure. Without absorption above 0.173–0.176, the path of least resistance is to probe prior demand at 0.165/0.162.

15. Elliott wave framing (heuristic)

• Down impulse to 0.1579 (wave A), corrective wave B to 0.1788 (~38.2%), and potential wave C developing toward 0.158–0.152 if support fails. Invalidation for near-term C-wave: firm close >0.184–0.185.

16. Confluence synthesis

• Bearish: Below 20/50D MAs, under Tenkan/Kijun and cloud; MACD < 0; RSI < 50; rejection at 38.2% fib; anchored VWAP resistance 0.171–0.173; pivot P above price.
• Bullish: Local intraday higher lows since 0.1628; oversold bounce energy; BB lower band nearby may cushion first test.
• Net: Confluence slightly favors a tactical short-on-strength into 0.173–0.176 with targets back to 0.162–0.159, while respecting invalidation above 0.179–0.180.

24-hour outlook

• Base case (55–60%): Fade into 0.171–0.174 sells off toward 0.166–0.163, with a possible liquidity sweep 0.160–0.159 before rebounding.
• Alternate bullish (25–30%): Acceptance above 0.174 leads to a test of 0.178–0.179; if reclaimed, a squeeze toward 0.184–0.185 (50% fib/Tenkan) before stalling.
• Bear spike (10–15%): Quick breakdown through 0.165 triggers a drive to 0.156–0.154; low probability unless broad risk off accelerates.

Risk management and trade plan (short)

• Entry zone: 0.173–0.176 (limit sell preferred). This aligns with anchored VWAP supply, 38.2% fib rejection zone, and just below the daily pivot.
• Invalidation/Stop (not part of requested fields but crucial): 0.1792–0.1805 (above 0.1788 high and round 0.18). A daily/hourly close above 0.18 would flip the 24h bias to neutral/up.
• Profit target: 0.161–0.159 cluster, front-run at ~0.1608 to capture fill ahead of the band and the Sep 25 low.
• Reward-to-risk (approx): (0.1732 − 0.1608) / (0.1792 − 0.1732) ≈ 2.1×.

Bottom line

• The bounce appears corrective within a dominant downtrend. Without a decisive reclaim of 0.178–0.180, probabilities favor another probe lower toward 0.162–0.159 over the next 24 hours. I prefer selling a retest of 0.173–0.176 with a take-profit near 0.160–0.161 and a tight invalidation above 0.18.