Sell the Relief: Fading OM’s Bounce into the 0.170–0.172 Supply Wall

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Expect an early relief bounce toward 0.169–0.172, then supply to fade price back toward 0.162–0.164. Strategy: sell strength into 0.170–0.172.
• Rationale: Dominant daily downtrend, overhead supply clusters at 0.170–0.175, confluence with Fibonacci 61.8% and prior pivot closes, hourly momentum rebound likely to exhaust into those levels.

Context and structure

• Regime: After a July 20 blow-off (H 0.3899, C 0.3609), OM entered a persistent downtrend with successive lower highs/lows. September 22 printed a high-volume breakdown (C ~0.1757 after intraday sub-0.161 sweep), shifting the 0.20–0.22 area from support to overhead supply.
• Current: 0.1658 (near the lower third of the recent range). Intraday (9/30) shows a base 0.160–0.162 and a late-session push to 0.1658.

Multi-timeframe trend analysis

• Daily trend: Bearish. Price is well below the presumed 20/50/200-day MAs (visual inference from the sequence of closes: 20D ~0.205–0.21, 50D ~0.225+, 200D >0.24). Lower highs since 9/27 (H 0.1851) and lower lows culminating in 9/29–9/30 retests. The 0.171–0.175 band has acted as a ceiling since the 9/22 break.
• 4H/1H structure: Hourly shows a descending channel from ~0.171 down to 0.158–0.163 with a minor break back above intraday VWAP late in the day. Momentum uptick is visible from the 15:00–20:00 sequence (0.1582 low to 0.1658 close), consistent with a relief rally inside a larger downtrend.

Key levels (support/resistance)

• Immediate supports: 0.1653 (intraday pivot/close ref), 0.1637 (9/29 low), 0.1618/0.1613 (intraday shelf), 0.1582 (9/30 hourly low), 0.1579/0.1562 (9/25 close/low).
• Overhead resistance/supply: 0.1684 (50% retrace of 9/25→9/27 leg), 0.1703–0.1714 (9/24 close 0.1703; 61.8% retrace confluence; repeated daily closes 0.171–0.1715), 0.1757–0.1788 (9/23 close 0.1711; 9/27 close 0.1788; local swing high zone), 0.1851 (9/27 high). Major supply overhead remains 0.20–0.22.

Momentum indicators

• RSI (daily, qualitative): Likely mid-30s to high-30s after the 9/22 dump and subsequent drift—weak but not deeply oversold. This supports a mild mean-reversion bounce but not a trend shift.
• RSI (hourly): Rebounded from oversold after tagging ~0.158. Now likely ~50–55, showing bullish momentum that often stalls into nearby resistance (0.168–0.171).
• MACD (daily, qualitative): Below zero, histogram negative but flattening—typical of bear-market bounces.
• MACD (hourly): Bullish cross from deeply negative territory, consistent with a relief rally toward the next resistance cluster.
• Stochastics (hourly, qualitative): Recovering from oversold and approaching upper band; prone to turning down near resistance bands.

Volatility and ranges

• ATR (daily, qualitative): Elevated after 9/22 but has compressed in the last few sessions. Expected 24h realized range: roughly 0.158–0.171 (about 7–8 cents of total spread in percentage terms ~8%).
• Bollinger Bands (daily, qualitative): Price recently tagged/approached the lower band near 0.160 and reverted inward. Mid-band estimated around 0.171–0.173, aligning with the resistance zone—prime spot for a fade in a downtrend.
• Keltner Channels: Price hugging/below lower KC on daily suggests trend pressure remains down; rallies to the middle channel tend to be sold.

Volume/flow analysis

• 9/22 breakdown volume spike (133.6M) marked a regime shift; subsequent sessions show lower volume on rebounds versus heavier volume on down days, signaling distribution.
• OBV (qualitative): Sloping down since late July; no decisive positive divergence.
• Intraday 9/30: An uptick during the late push to 0.165–0.166, but not a surge—more consistent with a routine bounce than accumulation.

Fibonacci confluence

• 9/25 low (0.1562/0.1579 close) → 9/27 high (0.1851):
  • 38.2%: ~0.1659 (at/just above current price)
  • 50%: ~0.1684 (first resistance)
  • 61.8%: ~0.1709 (key fade level)
• 7/20 high (0.3899) → 9/25 low (~0.1562):
  • 23.6%: ~0.2127 (far overhead supply)
  • 38.2%: ~0.2465 Interpretation: Any rally under 0.212 remains a counter-trend move within a broad downtrend.

Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Daily: Price below cloud; cloud red; Kijun above price. Strongly bearish regime. Tenkan < Kijun. No cloud support until materially higher prices.
• Hourly: Price has reclaimed/approached Tenkan and Kijun, with a thin forward cloud up near 0.169–0.171. Expect resistance into cloud top and/or a quick rejection.

Market structure and patterns

• Descending channel: Lower highs since 9/27 (0.1851) and lower lows to 9/30 (0.1582 hourly). Current move appears to be a channel mid-line test.
• Candlestick context: 9/25 printed a long lower wick near 0.1562, but follow-through fizzled by 9/28–9/30. Today’s hourly shows a hammer at ~15:00 followed by higher closes—classic bounce into resistance.
• Mean-reversion vs trend-following: Trend-followers will look to sell rallies below the daily 20EMA; mean-reverters may buy the 0.160–0.162 shelf, but with modest targets capped by 0.171–0.175.

Elliott wave (lightweight, contextual)

• From 9/27 high (0.1851), a potential 5-wave push down into 9/30 ~0.158 suggests the present move is an A–B–C corrective bounce. Typical C termination aligns with 0.168–0.171 (50–61.8% of the prior downswing), before resuming the larger downtrend.

Liquidity and profile

• Local HVNs around 0.171 (multiple daily closes) and 0.165. LVN pocket 0.168–0.170 implies a swift move if 0.168 breaks, but immediate supply at 0.171–0.172 likely stalls price.

Scenario map (next 24 hours)

• Primary (55%): Relief rally extends to 0.1684 → 0.1709/0.1715, stalls, then fades to 0.163–0.164 by session end.
• Secondary (30%): Range-bound chop 0.163–0.168 without decisive breakout; closes near 0.165–0.166.
• Adverse (15%): Momentum overextends through 0.172, probes 0.175–0.176 liquidity before fading later. Trend shift unlikely unless sustained above ~0.178–0.180.

Trade plan and execution

• Edge: Sell the rally into confluence (50–61.8% Fib, prior pivot closes, hourly cloud resistance) at 0.170–0.172, targeting a revert to the 0.161–0.164 demand shelf.
• Entry: Prefer limit sell at 0.1709 (61.8% retrace) to exploit optimal R/R and high-probability failure.
• Target: 0.1620 (near hourly shelf/one ATR lower bound), aligned with 9/30–9/29 supports.
• Risk management (informational): A logical invalidation sits above 0.1758 (9/23–9/27 zone). That preserves a favorable R/R (~1.7–2.0 depending on exact stop) while targeting the body of the range.

Why Sell and not Buy?

• While a short-term bounce is likely, the dominant daily trend, overhead confluence at 0.170–0.172, and supply history favor fading strength rather than chasing. The buy setup from 0.160–0.162 has inferior asymmetry now that price has lifted into mid-range.

Bottom line

• Expect a pop into 0.170–0.172 to be met with sellers. Optimal plan is to Sell (short) near 0.1709 and cover at ~0.1620 within 24 hours, barring an invalidation break over ~0.176.