Bears Seize MANTRA: S2 Lost, S3 in Sight — Sell the Bounce Toward $0.153, Target $0.138

Executive summary and 24h path

• Bias: Bearish continuation with a relief bounce. The structure has shifted from a multi-week 0.165–0.179 range into a downside break; fresh multi-month low printed at $0.1449.
• 24h path (base case): Reflexive bounce toward $0.151–0.153 (broken S2 / supply), then continuation lower toward $0.139–0.141 (S3 / fib extension confluence). Invalidation if price reclaims and holds above $0.156–0.158.

1. Market structure and price action

• Regime: After a sharp distribution phase in late September (9/22 gap-down to ~0.175), OM entered a grinding downtrend, repeatedly failing at ~0.176–0.179 and making successive lower highs/lows. Today broke the 0.156–0.158 shelf decisively.
• Intraday character (1H): A high-volume impulse sell at 15:00 UTC pushed from ~0.161 to ~0.154 (marubozu), follow-through to ~0.149, minor pause, then another flush to $0.1449. Structure: clean sequence of lower highs/lows, price hugging lower bands, below VWAP all session.
• Key levels from recent structure: • Broken support: 0.156–0.158 (now resistance) • Intraday supply: 0.151–0.153 (prior S2 pivot, breakdown retest zone) • Fresh low: 0.1449 (weak hands may defend 0.145 psych) • Next magnet: 0.140–0.142 (confluence of S3 daily pivot and 1.618 fib ext)

2. Trend analysis (MAs)

• Daily SMA20 ≈ 0.168–0.170 (est.), price at $0.1449 trades ~14–15% below: strong bearish trend extension.
• Daily SMA50 well above (~0.18–0.19), confirming a mature downtrend. No bullish MA crossovers on any timeframe.
• 1H EMAs (9/21/50) are stacked bearishly and acting as dynamic resistance; each intraday rally stalls near the EMA ribbon.

3. Momentum indicators

• RSI (Daily): Likely in the 27–32 zone after today’s selloff (oversold but in-trend). Oversold in a downtrend tends to produce bounces into resistance rather than full reversals.
• RSI (1H): Sub-30 on the flush with minor bullish divergence attempts on the last leg, supportive of a short-lived bounce to retest broken levels.
• MACD (Daily): Below zero, widening negative histogram—bearish momentum building.
• MACD (1H): Deeply negative; flattening histogram suggests a pause/bounce is near, not necessarily a trend change.

4. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (Daily, 20,2): Mid ~0.170, lower band ~0.156 (est.). Price at $0.1449 sits well below the lower band (overshoot). BB expansion + price walking the band = trend acceleration; however, deviations of >2σ often mean-revert into the band before continuation.
• Keltner Channels (Daily, EMA20 ± 1.5 ATR): Lower KC ~0.159 (est.). Price is outside the KC—classic trend extension/overshoot, consistent with a reflexive bounce then continuation.
• ATR(14) Daily: Expanding versus earlier October, confirming a volatility regime shift; risk and range targets should be set wider than earlier this week.

5. Volume, flow, and VWAP

• Volume profile: Heavy node around 0.165–0.167 (prior value area) that broke; thin pocket 0.150–0.153 allowed today’s fast move; next substantive interest likely emerges ~0.140–0.142.
• Intraday volume: 15:00 and 19:00 UTC candles showed elevated sell volume—distribution rather than capitulation-only (no immediate V-reversal signature).
• OBV (conceptual): Rolling over and making new lows—confirms supply dominance.
• VWAP (session): Price remained below VWAP throughout and extended away during the selloff. Expect mean reversion toward VWAP on a bounce, but with sellers reloading below 0.153–0.156.

6. Ichimoku (trend model)

• Daily: Price below Tenkan (~0.168) and Kijun (~0.171), below a bearish Kumo. Span A < Span B and lagging span under price—textbook bearish alignment. Any bounce into Tenkan/Kijun is a shorting zone in trend.
• 1H: Price well below a downward Kumo; baseline above price—sellers in control.

7. Fibonacci mapping and measured moves

• Local swing: 10/06 high 0.1790 to 10/09 close 0.1651 (Δ ≈ 0.0139). 1.618 extension from 0.1651 ≈ 0.1426; 2.0 extension ≈ 0.1372. Current $0.1449 sits between 1.272–1.618 extensions, implying the next magnet is ~0.142–0.140; deeper target ~0.137 if momentum persists.
• Range break measured move: Broke down from the 0.165–0.179 range (width ~0.014). Target ≈ 0.165 − 0.014 = 0.151 (already met). Extensions point to 0.140–0.137 for follow-through.

8. Pivots (Classic, using 10/09 H=0.167445, L=0.156097, C=0.165138)

• Pivot P ≈ 0.16289
• S1 ≈ 0.15834 (lost)
• S2 ≈ 0.15155 (tagged/broken; ideal bounce retest zone)
• S3 ≈ 0.14020 (next key downside target)
• R1 ≈ 0.16969; R2 ≈ 0.17424 (well above; unlikely in 24h absent regime flip)

9. Candles and patterns

• 1H marubozu down candle at 15:00 with expansion in volume—impulsive sell wave.
• Post-impulse small-bodied candles near lows imply a pause/bear flag rather than reversal; wicks up likely get sold.
• Daily print shaping into a large red candle closing near low—continuation signal.

10. Statistical and risk framing

• Z-score vs 20D mean: roughly −3 to −4σ on the close—ripe for a bounce, yet in downtrends oversold can persist. Fade bounces into resistance rather than knife-catching.
• Expected 24h range: Using current ATR regime, +/- 0.007–0.010 from mid-point; with trend skew, downside tails larger.
• Scenario weights (qualitative): • Bearish bounce-then-continue: 55% (bounce to 0.151–0.153, then drive to 0.139–0.141) • Straight continuation with shallow bounce: 30% (minor pop to ~0.149–0.150, then 0.140 test) • V-shaped recovery reclaiming 0.156–0.158: 15% (low odds without catalyst)

11. Trade plan synthesis

• Edge: Short the first decent retracement into broken supports where supply is stacked. Confluence at 0.151–0.153 (S2 pivot, intraday supply, thin-profile area that often retests) offers asymmetric entry with nearby invalidation and attractive reward toward S3.
• Entry: 0.1515 (ideal limit into the retest pocket; acceptable scale-in 0.149–0.153). Avoid chasing sub-0.146 unless momentum is extreme; R/R deteriorates.
• Target: 0.1380 (front-run S3 at 0.1402 and fib 2.0 at ~0.137 to ensure fills in high-volatility conditions). Partial profit-taking around 0.141–0.142 prudent; full TP ~0.138.
• Invalidation/stop (guidance): Above 0.1565 (back over broken shelf 0.156–0.158), or conservatively 0.1585 if giving room for a squeeze to the shelf.
• R/R estimate: Entry 0.1515, stop 0.1565 (risk 0.0050), TP 0.1380 (reward 0.0135) → ~2.7R.

12. What flips the view

• A strong reclaim and hold above 0.156–0.158 with rising volume, hourly closes above VWAP/EMA ribbon, and MACD histogram crossing positive would signal a failed breakdown and open a path to 0.165–0.169 (R1). Absent that, rallies are sells.

Bottom line forecast (next 24h)

• Expect a relief bounce toward $0.151–0.153, then continuation lower to probe $0.139–$0.141. Strategic stance: Sell the bounce; target $0.138 before reassessing.