After the Capitulation: OM’s Next 24 Hours Likely Bleed Below $0.10

Summary view

• Context: OM suffered a shock event on Oct 10 with an extreme intraday low near 0.04083 and a close at 0.10681. Today (Oct 11) price attempted to stabilize ~0.111–0.113 early, then bled lower to ~0.102 into the close of the provided data. Current price: 0.10196.
• Thesis for next 24h: Post-capitulation dynamics typically show a reflex bounce (already seen up to ~0.113) followed by a secondary test/retest lower. The tape now shows supply overwhelming demand below the session VWAP and the daily pivot, with a developing intraday bear flag that has already started breaking down. My base case is a grind/bleed below $0.10 toward $0.095–0.091, with a possible liquidity swipe into $0.088–0.090 before responsive buyers appear. Strategy: Sell the bounce into resistance; target the next demand pocket just under $0.09.

Step-by-step multi-tool analysis

1. Market structure (multi-timeframe)

• Daily: Clear markdown. After a July blow-off (high ~0.39 on Jul 20) price cascaded into a broad range (0.16–0.22) through September, then broke down. The Oct 10 candle is a selling climax (SC) with a massive lower wick but a weak close relative to the range. That is characteristic of capitulation followed by only a modest automatic rally (AR) and no sign of sustainable absorption.
• 4H/1H: Lower highs and lower lows from the 10/11 morning high ~0.113. The afternoon session produced a descending channel/bear flag that started to resolve lower after 19:00 with the breakdown to 0.1041 and then to 0.1027 and 0.1020. Market structure remains bearish below 0.111–0.113.

2. Key levels (from price action, volume clustering, round numbers)

• Immediate resistance: 0.1045–0.1068 (daily pivot P and prior daily close), then 0.1099–0.1131 (hourly supply shelf and morning high), then 0.115–0.118 (next minor shelf). Acceptance back above 0.113 is required to neutralize immediate bearish pressure.
• Immediate supports: 0.1000 (psych round), 0.098–0.096 (measured move/flag projection and prior intraday pause), 0.094–0.091 (extension target cluster), 0.089–0.088 (liquidity pocket). Extreme tail risk: a disorderly sweep back toward 0.07–0.06; less likely in 24h but not impossible given ATR expansion.

3. Volume, OBV, and participation

• Daily volume exploded on Oct 10 (123M) indicating capitulation. Today’s intraday volumes were front-loaded during the morning stabilizing phase and then declined as price drifted lower—classic bearish drift below VWAP (no strong dip-bid). On-balance volume (OBV) across the last weeks would be decisively down; no sustained positive divergence is observable in the provided intraday action.

4. Volatility/ATR and Bollinger Bands

• Daily ATR has spiked materially from prior 0.01–0.02 to a regime where 10–30% intraday ranges can occur. Price is riding the lower side of the daily Bollinger envelope after a volatility expansion; in such regimes, “band walks” are common and oversold can stay oversold. Intraday Bollingers show mid-band rejections near ~0.110–0.111, consistent with a weak tape.

5. Momentum (RSI, Stoch, MACD)

• Daily RSI likely sub-30 post-crash (oversold), but there’s no confirmation bounce: failure to reclaim RSI midline on lower timeframes suggests momentum remains negative. Hourly RSI has been making lower highs from the morning bounce—no bullish divergence at session lows. Stoch RSI rolling over from mid-zone supports near-term downside continuation. MACD (daily and hourly) is below zero with a bearish histogram; no bullish cross is apparent intraday.

6. Moving averages (trend filters)

• Daily: Price is far below 20/50/200 SMAs/EMAs (20D likely ~0.17, 50D ~0.20, 200D ~0.24+). This is a firmly bearish stack. Any mean-reversion risk is to the upside but remains unlikely to trigger strongly in the next 24h unless a reclaim of 0.113–0.118 occurs on volume.
• Hourly: Price is below the 20/50 EMAs; rallies to the 20/50 EMA bands (~0.106–0.111) have been sold. The EMA ribbon is fanned bearishly.

7. VWAP and anchored VWAP

• Session VWAP for Oct 11 hovers roughly ~0.109–0.110 (based on the bulk of volume around 0.111–0.112 and subsequent drift). Price has remained below VWAP for most of the back half of the session—bearish. Anchored VWAP from the Oct 10 capitulation event would sit above current price (high 0.16, low 0.0408, close 0.1068); the morning’s failure to sustain above 0.112 implies supply dominance.

8. Pivot points (classic) using Oct 10 H/L/C

• H=0.16627, L=0.04083, C=0.10681
• Pivot P ≈ (H+L+C)/3 ≈ 0.10455
• R1 ≈ 0.16826; S1 ≈ 0.04309
• Price traded below/around P and failed to reclaim it into the latter hours, which is bearish for the next session. The only attainable pivot reference is P (~0.1045), now acting as resistance.

9. Fibonacci work

• Intraday bear-flag pole: 0.1131 → 0.1040 ≈ 0.009. Break from 0.104 suggests measured target ≈ 0.095. Extensions from 0.1068 (prior close) project 1.272–1.618 targets near 0.096–0.093. These cluster with round-number and volume-based supports near 0.095–0.091.

10. Ichimoku (daily/hourly)

• Daily: Price well below Kumo; Tenkan below Kijun (bear cross), Lagging Span under price and cloud—full bearish setup. Kijun mean reversion sits far overhead (likely ~0.16–0.17), not immediately relevant to a 24h horizon.
• Hourly: Price below cloud; repeated Tenkan/Kijun rejections intraday. Until an hourly close back above ~0.111–0.113 (cloud base), the path of least resistance is down.

11. Candlestick reads

• Oct 10 daily shows a long lower shadow (hammer-like), but confirmation requires a close above the hammer’s midpoint and follow-through above resistance—neither occurred. Failure to follow a hammer is often a strong bearish tell (bulls expended energy without reclaiming structure). Oct 11 intraday prints mostly small-bodied candles rolling over—classic bear-flag behavior.

12. Regression channel and trend slope

• A simple linear regression fit to Oct 11 hourly prices slopes downward. Price is at or below the lower half of the channel, which can produce brief mean-reversion pops, but the slope and momentum favor selling those pops rather than fading breakdowns.

13. Wyckoff lens

• We appear in the Markdown phase following a Distribution range through September. Oct 10 was the Selling Climax (SC) with an Automatic Rally (AR) peaking near 0.113. A Secondary Test (ST) lower is typical within 24–72 hours. That ST often probes near the SC zone but usually holds above the SC low initially; a dip into 0.095–0.089 would fit this playbook.

14. Elliott Wave sketch (heuristic)

• From the early-Oct local high ~0.179, the cascade into Oct 10 looks like a wave 3 capitulation. The small rebound toward ~0.113 is a wave 4; today’s rollover suggests the start of a wave 5 minor that commonly terminates around 0.618–1.0 extensions of the prior micro-leg—again pointing to ~0.095–0.091, with stretch risk to ~0.088.

15. Liquidity and round-number dynamics

• The $0.10 handle is a high-visibility liquidity magnet. Given failed attempts to reclaim above and a seller’s market below VWAP, a stop run through $0.10 is probable. Liquidity pools are likely around 0.098, 0.095, and 0.090. Expect wicks into those zones and responsive bounces.

16. Scenario analysis for next 24 hours

• Base case (60%): Bear-flag continuation. Early bounce into 0.1045–0.1065 gets sold; price breaks $0.10 and grinds into 0.095–0.091, with a possible liquidity spike to 0.088–0.090 before a reflex bounce. Close near 0.094–0.098.
• Bull case (25%): Strong reclaim of 0.111–0.113 on rising volume puts 0.115–0.118 in play (gap-fill toward session VWAP/cluster). This would neutralize the immediate short but still sit within a broader downtrend.
• Tail risk (15%): Disorderly sell/liquidation cascade revisits 0.08 or even lower (unlikely without a fresh catalyst but ATR permits large wicks).

17. Trade plan logic (to decide Buy or Sell)

• With price below VWAP, below daily pivot, momentum negative, and a resolving bear flag, shorting strength offers the best expectancy within 24 hours. The invalidation is clean: an hourly close above ~0.113 on expanding volume would negate the short thesis. Targeting the 0.089–0.095 demand pocket is consistent with measured moves, liquidity mapping, and the Wyckoff ST expectation.

Prediction (24h)

• Expect a bounce to ~0.104–0.107 that fails, a breakdown through $0.10, and a probe into 0.093 ± 0.004. Tail wicks to ~0.088 possible; end-of-window stabilization likely back near 0.096–0.098 if buyers respond.

Operational notes

• Entry preference: Use a limit to sell a bounce at/near the daily pivot/supply shelf (0.1045–0.1068). If no bounce materializes, an alternative is a momentum entry on a clean break <$0.100, but the primary plan is to sell strength.
• Risk management (context only): A logical soft stop is above 0.113 hourly close; a tighter execution stop can be 0.1118–0.1125 depending on fill. Not part of the requested output but important for implementation.