OM’s Post-Crash Snapback: Targeting the 61.8% Retracement on a Buy-the-Dip Setup

Executive summary

• Context: OM suffered a capitulation on Oct 10 (intraday low ~0.04083, daily close ~0.10681) after a multi-week downtrend from the late-July spike. Since Oct 11, price has stabilized and is staging a low-timeframe rebound. As of Oct 12 20:56 UTC, price is ~0.11518, up from a local hourly low ~0.0983 earlier today.
• Bias for next 24h: Short-term bullish momentum within a broader bearish higher-timeframe context. Expect a shallow pullback into 0.111–0.113 to reset intraday momentum, then an attempt to extend toward 0.119–0.122 (61.8% retracement magnet and recent intraday expansion target). Risk: rejection at the 0.116–0.119 supply zone could force a deeper retest of 0.108–0.106.
• Actionable plan: Buy the dip (limit) near 0.1122 with a tactical take-profit around 0.1214 within 24h. This aligns with intraday supports (Kijun/MA clusters, anchored VWAP bands, prior breakout base) and targets the next logical resistance cluster (Fibo 61.8% and measured move). Suggested protective stop (not executed here due to format) would be ~0.1078 to keep R:R ≥ 1:2.

Multi-timeframe trend and structure

• Higher timeframe (Daily):
  • Trend: Down. Price trades materially below the 20D and 50D SMAs (20D ≈ 0.164; current 0.115). The Oct 10 crash broke the 0.16–0.17 demand shelf, shifting structure bearish.
  • Volatility regime: Expanded (daily ATR spiked on Oct 10). Expect mean-reversion attempts but within a high-volatility environment.
  • Market structure: Post-breakdown basing/repair. After a cascade, assets often attempt a 50–61.8% retracement of the crash leg before deciding on continuation vs. repair. We are approaching that magnet.
• Intraday (Hourly since Oct 11):
  • Structure: Series of higher lows and higher highs from ~0.0983 to ~0.1156; a clean micro uptrend channel. 14:00–17:00 UTC saw an impulsive breakout, followed by controlled consolidation near highs.
  • Key levels: Supports 0.106–0.108 (prior acceptance), 0.111–0.113 (breakout base/volume shelf). Resistances 0.1156–0.116 (local supply), 0.119–0.121 (Fibo 61.8% confluence), stretch 0.123–0.126.

Price action details and pattern diagnostics

• Intraday ascending structure: From 11:00–20:00 UTC, candles show steady bid with minimal downside follow-through. The 15:00–17:00 expansion printed higher highs with healthy body closes, then tight-range consolidation near 0.115 suggests absorption, not aggressive rejection.
• Micro ascending triangle: Flat-ish tops around 0.115–0.116 with rising lows from ~0.111; measured move of triangle height (~0.0025–0.003) projects to ~0.118–0.119 on breakout.
• Mean reversion window: After hugging upper bands, price often mean-reverts to the 1h midline/short MAs; expect a controlled dip toward 0.112–0.113 where demand likely re-emerges.

Moving averages (trend filters)

• Daily: 20D SMA ≈ 0.164 (down-sloping), 50D SMA materially higher (bearish). Price well below these—higher timeframe headwinds persist.
• Hourly: 9/12/21 EMAs fanned bullish and below price; dynamic support likely around 0.112–0.113. A retest would be healthy before another leg up.
• 200H SMA (approximate): Still above recent range pre-crash; however, given regime change, it’s less informative in immediate 24h horizon than EMA cluster and VWAPs.

Oscillators

• RSI (Daily): Likely recovering from oversold (post-crash), now around mid-30s to low-40s—room to bounce before overbought on daily.
• RSI (1H): Estimated high-60s/low-70s after the afternoon impulse—suggests momentum is strong but due for a brief reset; a pullback to 0.112–0.113 could drop RSI to the 50–55 zone, priming the next push.
• Stochastic (1H): Near overbought; cross-down on a minor dip would be constructive if it resets without breaking structure.

Momentum (MACD)

• Daily MACD: Deeply negative but histogram is likely contracting after the bounce—early mean-reversion signal, not yet a confirmed daily reversal.
• 1H MACD: Bullish cross occurred during the 14:00–16:00 thrust; histogram positive and flattening—consistent with a consolidation/pullback before another attempt higher.

Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (1H): Expanded after a prior squeeze; price has been riding the upper band into ~0.115. Expect a tag of the mid-band (approx 0.112–0.113) if momentum pauses—ideal buy-the-dip zone.
• Keltner Channels (1H): Price near/above upper channel—signals trend strength but also a tendency to mean-revert to the EMA centerline on pause.
• ATR (1H): Elevated (~0.003–0.004 est.). A 0.003–0.004 retrace from 0.115 implies 0.112–0.111 is very plausible within normal intraday noise.

Volume, accumulation, and flow

• Daily volume: Massive spike on Oct 10 (capitulation), still elevated on Oct 11–12—classic capitulation then absorption/repair sequence.
• Intraday profile: Notional volume increased on the move from 0.107 to 0.115, with no climactic blow-off. OBV (1H) rising—accumulation bias.
• Volume shelves: Acceptance zones around 0.103–0.105 and 0.111–0.113. Thin air between 0.114–0.118 increases the chance of swift travel on breakout, but also faster reversals.

VWAPs

• Session VWAP (Oct 12): Price trading above intraday VWAP—bullish intraday positioning.
• Anchored VWAP from crash low (Oct 10): Likely in the 0.095–0.100 region; price above it, indicating buyers from capitulation are in profit—supports continued repair toward 0.119–0.121 as long as above 0.106–0.108.

Fibonacci mapping (using swing high Oct 9 ~0.16745 and crash low Oct 10 ~0.04083)

• 38.2%: ~0.0900 (already reclaimed decisively)
• 50%: ~0.1041 (reclaimed, now a secondary support)
• 61.8%: ~0.1191 (next key resistance/magnet; expect first response here)
• 76.4%: ~0.1377 (ambitious for 24h unless momentum accelerates further) This strongly supports a tactical long targeting the 0.119–0.121 pocket after a small reset.

Ichimoku (heuristic)

• Daily: Price well below Kumo; Tenkan/Kijun overhead—bearish HTF. However, post-crash Tenkan can flatten/turn up quickly; first resistance cluster sits above.
• 1H: Price above Tenkan and Kijun; cloud likely thin and turning positive ahead. Pullbacks to Kijun (~0.112–0.113) tend to be bought in this phase.

Donchian channels and Parabolic SAR

• Donchian (1H, ~20): Upper around 0.115–0.116 just printed new highs, middle near ~0.106–0.108, lower ~0.0983. Break of upper band indicates trend continuation; pullback toward mid-channel is typical before continuation.
• Parabolic SAR (1H): Likely below price and trailing near ~0.109–0.110; would flip only on a deeper violation—currently supports a buy-the-dip bias.

Elliott wave sketch (intraday)

• Wave count since 0.0983 low: Impulsive 5-wave structure into 0.115–0.116. Expect an ABC corrective drift toward 0.112–0.113 (A/B/C) before initiating a new impulse toward 0.119–0.122.

Gann/levels confluence

• Gann 1/8–7/8 partitions of the crash range place a confluence near ~0.118–0.120, aligning with Fibo 61.8% and the measured move objective—strong confluence for profit-taking.

Heikin Ashi read (intraday)

• Smooth series of green candles post 14:00 suggests trend health; a few smaller bodies near 0.115 hint at brief distribution/absorption rather than reversal.

Wyckoff lens

• Capitulation Spring (Oct 10), Automatic Rally (Oct 11–12), potential Secondary Test on a minor dip (0.112–0.113) before Markup toward the next resistance shelf (0.119–0.121). Volume behavior supports absorption and early accumulation.

Risk scenarios and probabilities (next 24h)

• Base case (55%): Shallow dip to 0.112–0.113, then breakout toward 0.119–0.121 with intraday wicks possibly to 0.122–0.123. Close in the 0.118–0.120 area if momentum sustains.
• Bearish alternative (25%): Rejection at 0.116–0.118 area without proper reset; drift down to 0.109–0.108. Break of 0.106 opens 0.103–0.104 (50% retracement) but requires risk-off shift.
• Bullish extension (20%): Minimal pullback; clean break over 0.116 leads to a quick tag of 0.119–0.121 and, if volume surges, a probe into 0.123–0.126. Less likely without a brief reset.

Catalysts and dependencies

• Crypto beta: If broader market (e.g., BTC/ETH) remains steady or risk-on, OM’s repair rally has tailwinds. A sudden risk-off could enforce the 0.109–0.106 test.
• Liquidity pockets: Thin order book zones between 0.114–0.118 can accelerate moves in both directions; plan entries at supports, not at highs.

Trade plan synthesis

• Why Buy (not Sell): Multiple intraday tools align for a continuation after a minor reset: bullish EMA stack, positive 1H MACD, OBV up, price above session VWAP, and a clear magnet at the 61.8% Fibo (~0.119). Shorting into first serious resistance with momentum still rising is lower probability unless there’s a clear rejection. Given daily headwinds, keep the horizon tactical (24h) and take profits into resistance.
• Entry: 0.1122 (limit) aligns with 1H mid-band/EMA cluster, Ichimoku Kijun zone, prior breakout base, and a small volume shelf.
• Target: 0.1214—inside the 0.119–0.122 resistance pocket; captures the measured move while front-running heavier supply near 0.122–0.123.
• Implied stop (for risk context): ~0.1078 (below local structure and SAR trail). R:R ≈ (0.1214–0.1122)/(0.1122–0.1078) ≈ 0.0092/0.0044 ≈ 2.1x.

What would invalidate

• A clean hourly close below 0.109 with rising sell volume would weaken the structure and increase odds of a slide to 0.106/0.104. In that case, stand down on longs and reassess near 0.104 (50% retracement) for fresh signals.

24-hour path expectation

• Early-session: Controlled pullback to 0.112–0.113.
• Mid-session: Re-accumulation and breakout through 0.116–0.118.
• Late-session: Tag 0.119–0.121 with possible wick to ~0.122–0.123, then consolidation.

Bottom line

• Tactical long favored: buy-the-dip near 0.1122, target 0.1214 within 24h, respecting the 0.109–0.108 risk zone. Momentum supports a push into the 61.8% retracement before the higher-timeframe bears attempt another say.