From Panic Wick to Neckline Retest: OM Set Up for a 0.16 Reclaim

Note: This is market commentary for education, not financial advice. Crypto is highly volatile—use your own judgment and risk controls.

Executive summary

• Multi-month downtrend remains intact on the daily chart, but short-term momentum flipped bullish after a capitulation wick on 2025-10-10 and a strong 10/13 rebound.
• Intraday (1h) structure shows a clean inverse head-and-shoulders breakout with a textbook neckline retest near 0.142–0.145.
• Base case for next 24 hours: a continuation toward 0.155–0.162, with pullbacks likely supported at 0.141–0.143 and deeper at 0.136–0.132.

Top-down context and market structure

• Higher timeframe (daily):
  • July spike to ~0.39 (7/20) followed by persistent distribution and lower highs/lows into Sept/Oct.
  • Breakdowns: 0.21 area lost in late Aug; further slide to 0.175 (9/22) and 0.158 (9/25) before a modest Oct bounce.
  • 10/10 flash-crash wick to ~0.0408 with a close at 0.1068 signaled capitulation/liquidation. Since then, constructive recovery: 0.1019 (10/11) → 0.1128 (10/12) → 0.1422 close (10/13). Current 0.1449 is holding gains.
  • Implication: Daily trend still bearish, but a strong mean-reversion rally is underway from an oversold/washed-out state.
• Intermediate (4h approximation from d/h data):
  • Range development 0.12–0.165 after the rebound, with value migrating higher.
  • Key supply overhead: 0.160–0.165 (10/13 high zone and prior HVN from early Oct).
  • Demand forming: 0.120–0.123 (golden pocket), 0.129–0.132 (hourly base), 0.141–0.143 (neckline retest).
• Short-term (1h):
  • Asian/EU session drifted down to 0.120–0.125, then built higher lows.
  • 18:00–19:00 UTC breakout to 0.154 on expanding volume, followed by an orderly pullback to 0.147–0.145.
  • Structure: Inverse H&S with left shoulder ~0.136, head ~0.120–0.121, right shoulder ~0.128–0.130; neckline ~0.142–0.144. Breakout and retest in progress—bullish continuation setup.

Key levels (spot zones)

• Supports: 0.141–0.143 (neckline), 0.136–0.138 (intraday shelf), 0.129–0.132 (prior base), 0.120–0.123 (61.8%–78.6% retracement cluster), 0.106–0.113 (post-crash acceptance).
• Resistances: 0.150–0.154 (local supply from 19:00 high), 0.160–0.165 (day high/supply), 0.171–0.179 (early Oct range ceiling), 0.20 (psychological and prior range floor).

Indicator-by-indicator assessment

1. Moving Averages (Daily 20/50/200):

• Price remains beneath the likely 20D/50D MAs (~0.17–0.20) and well below the 200D. That confirms the dominant higher-timeframe downtrend.
• However, distance below the 20D supports potential mean reversion upward over a few sessions.

2. EMA Ribbon (1h):

• Following the 18:00 UTC surge, price pushed above short-term EMAs; ribbon likely flipped long (EMAs stacked upward). Pullbacks toward the 20–50 EMA band (~0.141–0.145) tend to be bought in early trend transitions.

3. RSI (Daily and 1h):

• Daily: recently sub-30 on the crash; now recovering toward mid-40s. This favors a bounce continuation rather than immediate rollover.
• 1h: likely mid-50s after breakout, cooled from overbought—healthy for continuation.

4. MACD:

• Daily: Bullish momentum turn from extreme negative territory; room to run before reaching zero-line resistance.
• 1h: Positive cross and expanding histogram into the breakout; post-break pullback likely compressing histogram—typical before another push.

5. Stochastic RSI (1h):

• Likely reset from overbought after the surge; a fresh upturn from mid-range would align with a continuation push.

6. Bollinger Bands:

• Daily: Bands widened on 10/10; price rebounding toward the middle band. Mean-reversion dynamics favor drift toward the 20D mid-band (estimated high 0.16s) if support holds.
• 1h: Squeeze earlier in the day, expansion on breakout; price retesting mid-band—often a springboard for the next leg.

7. Ichimoku (1h):

• Price above Tenkan/Kijun post-break; bullish TK cross likely occurred near 18:00 UTC.
• Cloud ahead is probably thin to moderate up to 0.155–0.160, allowing price to traverse if momentum resumes.

8. Supertrend/Trend-following filters (1h):

• Likely flipped bullish on the breakout, with stop-line around 0.136–0.138. As long as price stays above, upside probes favored.

9. Volume, OBV, and participation:

• 10/13 showed heavy participation on the advance; 10/14 breakout candles had strong follow-through volume.
• Pullback volumes lighter than breakout—constructive absorption rather than aggressive distribution.
• OBV on 1h would be trending up; no obvious distribution signature yet.

10. VWAP/Anchored VWAP:

• Price sits above intra-day VWAP post-break; dips toward VWAP typically attract buyers in newly-formed uptrends.
• Anchored VWAP from the 10/10 panic low likely sits below 0.135; trading above it implies buyers have average cost advantage from the capitulation pivot.

11. ATR/Volatility regime:

• Volatility elevated post-crash (wide daily ranges). Intraday ATR supports 3–7% hourly swings; risk sizing should reflect that.
• Elevated vol plus constructive structure tends to produce impulse-continuation patterns.

12. Fibonacci mapping (10/11 swing low ~0.099 to 10/13 high ~0.165):

• 38.2%: ~0.139; 50%: ~0.132; 61.8%: ~0.123.
• Today’s low (~0.120–0.121) kissed the golden pocket and reversed—bullish. Now back above 38.2% (~0.139), which often precedes retests of the swing high and 1.27–1.618 extensions (~0.176–0.186) over a multi-session horizon.

13. Pattern analytics:

• Inverse head-and-shoulders on 1h with neckline ~0.142–0.144; measured move projects into 0.165–0.167. Retest of the neckline zone is underway—textbook continuation setup if it holds.

14. Candlestick/price action:

• Breakout candle at 18:00 was long-bodied with high close, followed by controlled retracement into prior resistance (now potential support). Lack of aggressive selling wicks at 0.145–0.147 suggests acceptance above the neckline.

15. Mean reversion vs trend continuation:

• Higher timeframe still favors selling rallies, but immediate-term signal stack (RSI/MACD/pattern/volume) aligns for a tactical long toward nearby supply before daily sellers likely re-engage near 0.160–0.165.

16. Scenarios for next 24 hours

• Base case (55%): Hold 0.141–0.145, push through 0.150–0.154, and probe 0.158–0.162.
• Bullish extension (25%): Strong momentum squeeze breaks 0.165, tags 0.168–0.172.
• Bearish risk (20%): Lose 0.141 neckline; slide to 0.136–0.132. A deeper failure could revisit 0.123–0.120 golden pocket before attempting another bounce.

Trade plan and risk framework

• Bias: Buy dips into the neckline retest; momentum-backed continuation expected.
• Entry: 0.1428–0.1445 limit zone aims to capture the retest; current price 0.1449 is within that band.
• Target (next 24h): 0.160–0.162 (first major supply). Conservative take-profit near 0.162 improves fill probability under volatility.
• Risk management (suggested): Protective stop below 0.135 (below intraday shelf and EMA band), acknowledging the 10/10 aberrant wick.
• Reward-to-risk: From 0.1438 entry, TP 0.162 (+12.6%) vs stop 0.135 (-6.1%) ≈ 2.1:1.
• Execution: Use limit orders; avoid chasing wicks. Consider partials at 0.154 and trail remainder toward 0.160–0.162.

What invalidates the setup?

• Clean hourly close below ~0.141 followed by failure to reclaim, or a heavy-volume breakdown through 0.135 turning that zone into resistance. That would favor a revisit of 0.129–0.132, then 0.123–0.120.

Conclusion

• The confluence of an inverse H&S breakout/retest, supportive intraday momentum, golden pocket reaction, and constructive volume suggests a tactical long into 0.160–0.162 within 24 hours—while respecting that the daily downtrend likely caps upside near 0.165 on first test.