OM coiling under 0.15: Ascending triangle eyes a high-0.14s push within 24 hours

Comprehensive multi-timeframe technical assessment for MANTRA (OM) over the next 24 hours

1. Market structure and context

• Regime: A violent liquidation on 2025-10-10 (intraday low ~0.0408; daily close ~0.1068) reset the structure from a 0.16–0.22 range into a high-volatility, price-discovery phase. Since then, price carved a capitulation hammer (10/10), secondary low (10/11), and a sharp relief rally (10/13), followed by choppy consolidation.
• Current price: 0.1349, sitting just above the 10/14 daily pivot area (~0.1355). Volume remains elevated (10/14–10/15), consistent with basing after capitulation.
• Short-term structure (1H): Higher lows forming around 0.1296 → 0.1315 → 0.1323 with a relatively flat ceiling 0.148–0.150. This sketches an ascending triangle beneath resistance, a constructive continuation setup if volume expands on the break.

2. Trend diagnostics (multiple timeframes)

• Long-term (50D/200D): Price is far below declining 50D and 200D MAs; primary trend remains bearish.
• Intermediate (20D): Likely ~0.17 area and falling; price is below the 20D SMA/EMA, but the gap has narrowed after the rebound—typical of early basing behavior post-liquidation.
• Short-term (1H/4H): 1H 20/50 EMAs are clustered ~0.136–0.138 with price oscillating around them; the 200H EMA is likely ~0.143–0.145. That places OM in a neutral-to-slightly-bullish micro regime (price near/just below 200H), where a reclaim of 0.145–0.150 would shift momentum decisively constructive.

3. Momentum and oscillators

• RSI(14) Daily: Approx 36—recovering from oversold but not overbought. This favors a corrective bounce with room to rise before momentum exhausts.
• RSI(14) 1H: Ranges mid-40s to low-50s, consistent with coiling. No immediate overbought risks; can fuel a push into resistance if volume comes in.
• Stochastics Daily: Lifted off sub-20 levels and moving through 30–40; constructive for continued mean-reversion, yet not overheated.
• MACD Daily: Below zero, histogram improving; classic post-capitulation early-stage recovery. A bullish cross is either recent or imminent; upside follow-through often tracks such inflections if supported by volume.
• MACD 1H: Whipsaws near the zero line; requires a clean break >0.148–0.150 to produce a decisive positive expansion.
• MFI (inferred): Rising off deeply depressed levels as up-days carried stronger volume than down-days since the 10/10 low—suggesting early accumulation.

4. Volatility and bands

• ATR Daily: Elevated after the crash, implying 24h swings of roughly 8–12% are reasonable. Risk and reward both higher than normal.
• Bollinger Bands (20D): Width expanded materially. Price bounced from the lower band (~0.10–0.11) to near the mid-band area (~0.14–0.15). %B resides below 0.5 but rising; a test of upper band would likely coincide with a break toward 0.16+.

5. Support, resistance, and pivots

• Fibonacci (from 10/06 high 0.1790 to 10/11 low 0.1019; Δ=0.0771): • 23.6%: ~0.1201 (passed, support) • 38.2%: ~0.1314 (current support zone) • 50%: ~0.1405 (near-term resistance) • 61.8%: ~0.1495 (key resistance; confluence with intraday highs) • 78.6%: ~0.1626 (stretch target on breakout)
• Classical daily pivots (from 10/14 H/L/C = 0.1543/0.1198/0.1324): • Pivot P ≈ 0.1355 (today’s magnet; current price hovering here) • R1 ≈ 0.1512 (aligns with Fib 61.8% 0.1495) • R2 ≈ 0.1700 (aligns with pre-crash micro resistance cluster) • S1 ≈ 0.1167; S2 ≈ 0.1010
• Horizontal levels: • Supports: 0.131–0.133 (Fib 38.2% + intraday basing), 0.129, 0.120–0.121, 0.106–0.113 (capitulation base) • Resistances: 0.140–0.141 (Fib 50%), 0.148–0.151 (Fib 61.8% + R1), 0.154–0.155 (10/14 spike high), 0.165–0.167 (pre-crash shelf)

6. Volume, OBV, and profile

• Volume: 10/13–10/15 shows persistent activity. Spikes during 10/15 04:00 UTC into 0.1485 suggest overhead liquidity near 0.149–0.151. Expect sell walls around those levels; a break needs strong, sustained inflow.
• OBV (qualitative): Off the lows, OBV is improving; up-days carry better volume than down-days. This supports the ascending triangle thesis—buying on dips and capping at known resistance until a push clears supply.
• Volume Profile (recent): A high-volume node (HVN) appears to be forming in 0.132–0.136; a low-volume notch likely sits ~0.146–0.149, which can facilitate a quick move through if offers thin out—provided buyers overwhelm sellers.

7. Ichimoku perspective

• Daily: Price below the Kumo; Kijun likely ~0.16+ and Tenkan rising off lows ~0.12–0.13. Tenkan > price recently then price reclaimed Tenkan—mildly bullish in the very short term. Kijun acts as mean-reversion target only if 0.150–0.155 is reclaimed first.
• 1H: Price frequently interacts with the cloud; bullish if it can sustain above the cloud top near 0.140–0.142 and then convert 0.148–0.150.

8. Pattern analysis

• Ascending triangle (intra-day): Higher lows into a flat resistance 0.148–0.150. Measured move if it breaks: height (~0.148 - 0.130 ≈ 0.018) projects to ~0.166—consistent with Fib 78.6% and prior micro resistance. Probability improves during Asia/Europe overlap if volume supports.
• Candles: 10/10 hammer and 10/13 wide-range up candle signaled capitulation + first impulse. 10/14 long upper wick reflected heavy supply at 0.154. 10/15 intraday shows buy-the-dip behavior above 0.132–0.133.
• Heikin-Ashi (qualitative): Shrinking lower wicks vs 10/10–10/11, with small bodies—consolidation before directional move.
• Elliott micro (qualitative): Wave-1 (10/11→10/13), Wave-2 pullback (10/14 dip to ~0.12), an attempted Wave-3 extension stalled at 0.1485 on 10/15 04:00; current consolidation could be sub-wave iv; a final push (v) into 0.149–0.152 is plausible before a corrective pullback.
• Harmonics: 61.8% retrace near 0.149–0.150 forms a potential PRZ; rejection likely on first touch without volume expansion. A successful breach with acceptance above 0.151 would invalidate the PRZ and open 0.162–0.167.

9. Statistical/quant signals

• Mean reversion: Z-score vs 20D MA remains negative but improved; typical dead-cat bounces often reach 0.5–1.0σ toward the mean (i.e., ~0.145–0.151) before meeting heavier supply.
• Hurst/Fractal bias: Post-shock clustering implies lower persistence/higher mean-reversion at first, transitioning to trendiness only upon a clear level break (≥0.149–0.151).

10. Correlation/flow context (qualitative)

• Cross-market beta: If broader crypto risk stabilizes, relief rallies extend. Elevated idiosyncratic volume here suggests OM-specific flows dominate; still, sudden BTC/ETH risk-off could push OM back into 0.129/0.121 supports.

11. 24-hour scenario map and probabilities

• Base/Range scenario (45%): Chop between 0.131–0.149, magnet around 0.136; fades near 0.140–0.141 with dips bought ~0.132–0.133.
• Breakout scenario (35%): Price presses 0.148–0.150; if 1H closes hold >0.151 on rising volume, extension into 0.162–0.167 likely before stalling.
• Breakdown scenario (20%): Loss of 0.131 leads to 0.129 first, then 0.121–0.122 sweep; deeper flush only if broader market turns risk-off.

12. Trade plan logic (tactical)

• Bias: Mildly bullish for the next 24h with a range-to-breakout tilt. Favor buying dips into 0.132–0.134 support and taking profits just before the heavy supply band 0.149–0.151.
• Optimal entry: A buy-limit on pullbacks slightly under the pivot but above 38.2% Fib—0.1332 gives good R:R and high fill probability without chasing.
• Profit objective: 0.1478, front-running the 0.149–0.151 supply/Fib 61.8%/R1 confluence to increase the probability of fill before potential rejection.
• Risk control (not requested but essential): A protective stop under 0.1290 (below recent 1H lows and below the 38.2% cluster) yields ~3.2–3.8x R:R versus the 0.1478 target.

Conclusion and 24h directional call

• Expect a retest of 0.140–0.141, and if momentum persists, a push into 0.147–0.149. Dips to 0.132–0.134 are attractive buys. A sustained 1H close above 0.151 would unlock 0.162–0.167, but that likely requires an additional impulse. Net: Buy dips for a tactical 24h long toward the high-0.14s.