OM
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Prediction
BULLISH
Target
$0.1329
Estimated
Model
trdz-T5k
Date
2025-10-16
21:00
Analyzed
MANTRA Price Analysis Powered by AI
After the Shock: OM Tests 0.12 – Oversold Bounce Setup Aiming for 0.13 Supply
Executive summary
- Bias (next 24h): Tactical bounce higher favored from 0.118–0.122 support toward 0.130–0.134 supply; broader trend remains bearish.
- Setup: Mean-reversion long after intraday capitulation into daily support and multiple confluences (Fib 61.8% of post-crash rally, classic S2 pivot, lower Bollinger vicinity, intraday VWAP deviation).
- Risk: Breakdown through 0.118–0.117 opens fast air to 0.112–0.107 (prior capitulation shelf).
Market structure and context (daily)
- Structural trend: Clear downtrend from late July highs (~0.39) to Sep range (0.16–0.22), then a sharp capitulation on 2025-10-10 to a 0.0408 intraday low and 0.1068 close. Subsequent reflex rally peaked 2025-10-13 at 0.1648 and has been retracing lower highs since. Current 0.1219 sits above the capitulation close but below the rally’s midpoint: bearish structure with potential for oversold bounces.
- Key levels (daily):
- Resistance: 0.132–0.136 (10/14–10/15 closes and intraday distribution), 0.142 (10/13 close), 0.149–0.154 (10/15–10/14 highs), 0.165–0.18 (pre-crash shelf).
- Support: 0.121–0.118 (current retest zone), 0.112–0.1068 (78.6% retrace zone and 10/10 close), 0.1019–0.0983 (10/11–10/12 closes/low).
- Candles: 10/10 formed a major capitulation candle (long lower shadow), often a medium-term reference low. The retrace from 10/13’s rally has produced a descending triangle feel into 0.12; triangles often break with momentum, but the first touch of a clean base frequently produces a tradable bounce.
Multi-timeframe indicators
- Simple/Exponential MAs (daily):
- 5D SMA ~0.1291; 10D SMA ~0.1352; 20D SMA materially higher (~0.16–0.17). Price 0.1219 is below all: trend bearish, but distance to short MAs implies reversion potential.
- RSI (14D, est.): Low-to-mid 30s after the crash and subsequent fade; approaching oversold but not extreme—supports bounce risk more than breakout.
- MACD (daily): Below zero with widening negative histogram today as price slips—trend pressure remains down; any bounce is tactical.
- Bollinger Bands (20,2): Bands expanded on 10/10; lower band now likely near the low-0.12s. Price sitting at/just below lower band suggests mean reversion potential to mid-band (~0.15 over time), with 0.130–0.136 as a nearer magnet.
- ATR (14D, est.): Elevated (~0.014–0.02) post-crash; expect 8–15% daily ranges. Position sizing and stops must respect this.
Intraday (hourly, 2025-10-16)
- Price action: A steady drip from ~0.135 at 00:00 to ~0.122 at 20:55 with lower highs/lows. The last two hours printed marginal new lows but with diminishing follow-through—early signs of seller fatigue.
- Intraday VWAP: Roughly around 0.129–0.130; price is ~5–6% below VWAP—statistically stretched and prone to reversion tests into 0.127–0.130 if sellers pause.
- Hourly momentum: RSI likely sub-30; Stochastics buried in oversold. A bullish stochastic cross from sub-20 typically fuels a 1–3 bar bounce into resistance.
- OBV/Volume: Heaviest volumes occurred during crash and 10/13 rally; today’s intraday volumes are moderate and tapering into lows, consistent with a potential intraday base.
Support/Resistance confluence and classical pivots
- Classic pivots derived from 10/15 (H=0.14915, L=0.12882, C=0.13610):
- Pivot P ≈ 0.13802; R1 ≈ 0.14722; S1 ≈ 0.12690; R2 ≈ 0.15835; S2 ≈ 0.11770.
- Current price 0.1219 sits between S1 and S2 and is nearing S2 (0.1177)—a frequent mean-reversion zone.
- Fibonacci retracement (10/12 low 0.09827 → 10/13 high 0.16476):
- 50%: 0.13151; 61.8%: 0.12367; 78.6%: 0.11260.
- Current 0.1219 ≈ golden pocket zone; below is 0.1126 (last-ditch support) before 0.1068.
- Supply zones above: 0.130–0.134 (congestion + 50% Fib) and 0.136 (10/15 close)—prime magnet for a bounce.
Pattern and quantitative reads
- Descending channel/triangle (since 10/13): Price pressing the base. First test of a clean base often yields a bounce; repeated tests increase break risk. This is the first clean daily retest of the 0.12 area post-rally.
- Mean-reversion signal: Price deviations from 5D SMA (
-5.6%) and from intraday VWAP (-6%) are in the 1–2 sigma pocket for this post-crash regime—short-term edge favors a pop toward the nearest supply. - Heikin-Ashi (conceptual): Consecutive red bodies with shrinking size into the last bars—slowing bearish momentum into support often precedes reversal candles.
- TD Sequential (conceptual on 1H): The sequence likely nearing 8–9 into today’s close, implying local exhaustion risk for shorts.
Risk scenarios and invalidation
- Bullish (base holds): 0.118–0.122 stabilizes, hourly momentum turns up, squeeze toward 0.127–0.134, potentially tagging 0.136 if momentum/volume improve.
- Bearish (base fails): A clean hourly close <0.118 with volume likely accelerates to 0.112–0.110; a further liquidity run can tag 0.106–0.107. In that case, the bounce thesis is invalid and a momentum short would have edge.
Strategy selection and trade plan (next 24h)
- Rationale to go long: Confluence of golden pocket (0.1237 vicinity), S2 (0.1177), lower Bollinger touch, intraday VWAP stretch, hourly oversold—all into a well-defined horizontal support (0.12). Probability-weighted path favors at least a test of 0.127–0.132 before any further decision.
- Entry: Place a limit near the top of the demand stack to capture a brief undercut while avoiding slippage—0.1198.
- Target: 0.1329 (front-runs the 0.1315 50% Fib and sits just under the 0.132–0.136 supply, improving fill odds).
- Stop (for risk control; not part of the required fields but recommended): 0.1120 (below 78.6% Fib and prior micro-base). Risk ≈ -6.5% vs reward ≈ +10.9%; R:R ≈ 1:1.7.
- Alternate trigger (if price lifts without dipping): Momentum add-on above 0.126 on an hourly close with rising volume, aiming 0.132–0.136; risk managed beneath 0.122.
Probability and expectations
- Base case probability: ~55–60% for a bounce toward 0.130–0.134 within 24h.
- Bearish break probability: ~40–45% for a liquidity sweep toward 0.112–0.107 if 0.118 fails on volume. Respect invalidation.
Execution notes
- Use limit orders; spreads widen during thin liquidity. Consider scaling: 50% at 0.1202, 50% at 0.1184 to improve average if a wick forms; target remains 0.1329.
- Watch hourly RSI/Stoch cross, VWAP reclaim attempts, and reaction at 0.1269 (S1) and 0.1315 (Fib 50%). Failure rejections at these levels argue for tightening stops.
- If a swift spike tags 0.132–0.134 before entry, stand aside rather than chase into supply; wait for a pullback toward 0.126–0.128 for a secondary attempt.
Bottom line
- Tactical long is favored for a mean-reversion pop into nearby supply. The broader daily trend is still down; treat it as a counter-trend bounce with disciplined risk management. If 0.118 breaks decisively, abandon the long view and reassess for a momentum short toward 0.112/0.107.