Selling the 0.126 Lid: Fade MANTRA (OM) Rallies Into a 24h Drift Back to 0.118

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Slightly bearish to range-bound. Expect chop between 0.118–0.126 with a downward tilt; a clean break under 0.118 could extend to ~0.113–0.112, while a squeeze above 0.126 would test 0.128–0.132.
• Trade idea: Fade strength into the 0.126 area (38.2% Fib and intraday lid), targeting a re-test of 0.118 support.

1. Multi-timeframe price structure and context

• Long-term (Jul → Oct): Persistent downtrend from ~0.33 in July, a mid-Sep stepdown (~0.21→0.17), then the 10 Oct flash-crash to 0.0408 low intraday, recovering to close ~0.1068. Despite a sharp rebound to ~0.15 on 13–15 Oct, price has since made lower highs and lower lows. Structure remains bearish.
• Intermediate (late Sep → today): Range 0.16–0.22 broke down 22 Sep to ~0.175; then compressed to 0.165–0.179 into 9 Oct, followed by the crash and a weak bounce. Post-bounce lower highs: 0.154 (14 Oct) → 0.149 (15 Oct) → 0.136 (16 Oct) → ~0.131 (17 Oct) → ~0.125 (18–19 Oct). Lows have also stair-stepped down (0.1288 → 0.1214 → 0.1190 → 0.1174). That’s a descending channel/descending triangle with a horizontal base near 0.118.
• Near-term intraday (19 Oct hourly): Rallyed to ~0.1251 around 11:00 UTC, repeatedly rejected; drifted to ~0.1225–0.123. Price is coiling under a persistent lid at 0.125–0.126 and holding a soft floor at 0.118–0.120. Intraday structure suggests supply sitting above 0.125 and bids defending ~0.118–0.120.

2. Key levels (confluence of S/R, Fib, pivots)

• Resistance: 0.125–0.126 (intraday top and 38.2% retrace of 10 Oct low → 13 Oct high), 0.1283 (R2 from classic pivots), 0.132–0.133 (daily supply and 50% retrace), 0.136, 0.142, 0.149.
• Support: 0.120 round, 0.118–0.1185 (multiple daily/interday touches), 0.1128 (12 Oct close), 0.1068 (10 Oct close), 0.1019 (11 Oct close) and 0.0983 (12 Oct low) as tail risk if capitulation resumes.
• Classic pivots (based on 18 Oct H/L/C ≈ 0.12499/0.11740/0.11975):
  • P ≈ 0.1207; R1 ≈ 0.1240; S1 ≈ 0.1164; R2 ≈ 0.1283; S2 ≈ 0.1131; R3 ≈ 0.1316.
  • Today stayed around P and R1, rejected below R2, reinforcing 0.125–0.126 as a tactical sell zone.
• Fibonacci (10 Oct low 0.1019 → 13 Oct high 0.16476):
  • 38.2% ≈ 0.1259 (current cap), 50% ≈ 0.1333, 61.8% ≈ 0.1406. Price is pinned just below 38.2%, typical of a weak retracement in a dominant downtrend.

3. Trend and moving averages

• 7D SMA ≈ 0.1284; 14D SMA ≈ 0.1355. Price (≈0.1229) is below both → short-term and swing downtrends intact.
• EMAs (approx): 9 EMA ~0.126–0.127, 21 EMA ~0.133–0.137, 50 EMA well above (~0.19), 200 EMA much higher (~0.24+). Bearish alignment (fast < slow; price < all) with slight flattening of the fastest lines indicates potential for brief mean reversion bounces but no trend reversal signal yet.

4. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) daily: Estimated mid-to-high 30s (≈35–40). That’s weakly oversold/neutral. After the crash, the bounce alleviated extremes; current RSI south of 50 suggests sellers retain control. Room exists for a minor push down before reaching oversold extremes.
• Stochastic (daily): K ~35–45, struggling to cross D; intraday stoch reached overbought during the 11:00 UTC pop then cooled. Not a strong bullish impulse.
• Williams %R: Hovering around -70/ -80, consistent with pressure near lower ranges without capitulation.

5. MACD and histogram

• Daily MACD remains below zero; histogram contracted off the crash lows but has started flattening. A weak bear-market rally setup; signal line crossover is not confirmed. Until MACD flips positive or shows strong bullish divergence, rallies are sellable.

6. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Midline (≈20SMA) likely around 0.15; lower band near 0.11–0.12 after elevated post-crash volatility. Price is riding the lower half of the bands, leaning toward the lower band—typical of a grind lower with occasional snapback to the midline. BB-Keltner suggests modest compression vs last week; a directional break is possible, with the path of least resistance still down while below 0.126–0.128.
• ATR(14): Elevated versus pre-crash but contracting. Expect 24h realized range roughly 0.007–0.012 (~6–10%).

7. Ichimoku Cloud (approx)

• Tenkan (9) ≈ (HH+LL)/2 over 9 days ≈ (0.1648 + 0.0983)/2 ≈ 0.1315; Kijun (26) ≈ 0.162–0.163. Price far below both, below a likely thick bearish Kumo. TK distance suggests some mean-reversion potential toward Tenkan (~0.131), but cloud state and bearish span B imply rallies should be capped below 0.13–0.133 unless momentum regime changes.

8. ADX/DMI

• ADX rolling down from post-crash spike (trend exhaust), DI- still above DI+ but spread narrowing. Translation: bearish trend remains but losing intensity; in such regimes, “sell-the-rip” strategies outperform “sell-the-break” until a fresh expansion.

9. Volume and money flows

• Volume: Peak on 14 Oct during distribution after the rebound. Subsequent days show diminishing volume on drift lower—classic post-bounce supply overhang with temporary seller fatigue. Today’s intraday volumes rose on failed tests above 0.125, indicating active supply at the lid.
• OBV: Down since mid-Oct, flattening the last 1–2 sessions. No bullish accumulation signal yet.
• MFI/CMF (approx): MFI ~40–45, CMF modestly negative—weak inflows, net outflows persist.

10. Candles and patterns

• 10 Oct: massive lower wick (flash-crash), 13 Oct: strong green body (automatic rally), then a series of lower-high candles and small bodies (spinning tops) indicating indecision under overhead supply.
• 18–19 Oct: multiple rejections near 0.125–0.1255 with higher intraday tails, while lows are defended near 0.118–0.120 → descending triangle characteristics. Measured move for a clean break below 0.118 projects ~0.110–0.111 (height ≈0.008 from 0.126 to 0.118).
• Heikin-Ashi read (qualitative): Smaller bodies with lower shadows, no clear reversal series yet.

11. VWAP/intraday microstructure (19 Oct)

• Intraday VWAP (qualitative estimate) clustered around 0.123–0.124 during EU/US sessions. Repeated failures above VWAP and quick fades from 0.125–0.1255 imply responsive sellers dominating upticks. Buyers are price-sensitive near 0.118–0.120 but have not chased breakouts.

12. Regression and mean-reversion views

• Linear regression on closes from 13–19 Oct shows a negative slope; extrapolation for the next 24h centers ~0.121 with 1-σ envelope ~0.117–0.125. This aligns with the pivot/momentum picture and favors fading into the 0.125–0.126 area.

13. Wyckoff/Elliott interpretation

• Wyckoff: 10 Oct as Selling Climax (SC), 13 Oct Automatic Rally (AR), now a Secondary Test (ST) zone 0.117–0.120. However, the AR was weak relative to the drop, and current lower highs suggest redistribution rather than a firm accumulation base unless 0.118 continues to hold and volume shifts to absorption.
• Elliott (heuristic): Post-crash A up (to mid-Oct), B/C down likely unfolding; a marginal new low to ~0.112–0.115 would complete a corrective leg before any base-building. This supports a short swing into support.

14. Risk scenarios and catalysts (next 24h)

• Base case (≈60%): Range with bearish drift; rallies to 0.125–0.126 are sold; price oscillates 0.118–0.126, likely settling 0.120–0.123 by 24h end.
• Bear extension (≈25%): 0.118 breaks on a volatility expansion; quick slide to 0.113–0.1128 where buyers attempt to defend prior daily close; tails likely.
• Squeeze risk (≈15%): Sustained reclaim above 0.126 (38.2% Fib/overhead supply) triggers stops, pushing to 0.1283 (R2) and possibly 0.132 (50% Fib/first real daily supply). A daily close above ~0.133 would start to neutralize the near-term bear case.

15. Strategy synthesis and trade plan

• Rationale to sell strength:
  • Price below 7/14/21/50-day MAs, below Ichimoku cloud, MACD negative.
  • Clear intraday supply at 0.125–0.126 (Fib 38.2 + pivot cluster) with multiple failed forays.
  • Descending triangle/descending channel with base ~0.118 suggests downside break risk remains.
  • Momentum oscillators not oversold enough to prevent another push down; ADX weakening favors mean reversion sells at resistance over breakdown shorts at support.
• Execution
  • Entry (short): Scale/limit into 0.1256–0.1262, primary trigger 0.1259.
  • Take-profit: 0.1185–0.1180 zone; set TP at 0.1185 to front-run bids.
  • Invalidation/stop (not part of output fields, but essential): Above 0.1322–0.1335 (50% Fib + supply). A tighter tactical stop could be 0.1286–0.1292 if only day-trading the range.
  • Optional add: If price spikes to 0.1283 (R2) without breaking 0.129, add with caution; reduce if 0.126 fails to cap on a closing basis.
• Position sizing and risk: Given ATR compression vs last week but still elevated historically, size modestly; avoid over-leverage. Skew risk:reward ≈ 1:2 if entry around 0.1259, TP 0.1185, stop 0.1292 (tactical) or 0.1330 (swing).

Conclusion and 24h outlook

• Expect continued rejection near 0.126 with a drift back to 0.120–0.118. Absent a catalyst, bears control the lid. A decisive close above 0.1265–0.128 would force reassessment; until then, sell-the-rip remains the higher-probability tactic.