MANTRA (OM): Post-Capitulation Coil Under Resistance — Fade Rallies Into 0.120, Target 0.115

Summary view

• Thesis for next 24 hours: OM is consolidating after a major capitulation break and remains in a higher-timeframe downtrend. Into the next day, rallies into 0.1196–0.1205 are likely to meet supply, with risk of a drift back toward 0.115–0.114. Base case: fade strength (short the pop), target a re-test of lower range support. Alternate: quick scalp long only if 0.1180 pivot is reclaimed and held with rising volume.

Context and market structure

• Regime shift on Oct 10: A violent break (10-10 low 0.0408, close 0.1068) transformed the structure from a grinding downtrend to a capitulation-and-range regime. Subsequent bounce attempts (10-13 to 10-15) stalled below key Fibonacci retracements, then bled lower into 10-21/10-22.
• Current price: 0.11760674. Intraday range has tightened; the last 24h traded roughly 0.1156–0.1196.
• Daily market structure: clear series of lower highs and lower lows since early October. The most recent swing high cluster is 0.124–0.125 (R1 area) and 0.131–0.133 (38.2% retracement and 20D mid-BB). Bulls need to reclaim those to change the daily picture.
• Microstructure (hourly): higher lows intraday (0.1156 → 0.1163 → 0.1169) against a flat ceiling 0.1196 suggests a small ascending triangle, but context is bearish; such patterns in downtrends often fail into supply.

Support and resistance (precision zones)

• Immediate resistance: 0.1196–0.1200 (intraday high cluster and supply). Above that: 0.1248–0.1251 (daily R1 from 10-23 pivots), then 0.131–0.133 (38.2% retracement and 20D SMA area).
• Immediate support: 0.1160–0.1163 (hourly demand and VWAP vicinity), 0.1142–0.1150 (61.8% pullback of 10-23→10-24 upswing at ~0.1143), stronger 0.1110–0.1113 (daily S1 and prior close on 10-22). If 0.111 breaks cleanly, air pockets down to 0.104–0.106 (S2 zone) appear.

Moving averages and trend filters

• 5D SMA ≈ 0.1174: price marginally above, hinting at very short-term stabilization.
• 10D SMA ≈ 0.1211: price below, indicating near-term trend still down.
• 20D SMA ≈ 0.1327: price well below, confirming a broader bearish regime.
• Stacking (5 < 10 < 20) biased downward. Until price reclaims/holds above ~0.121–0.123, rallies remain suspect.

Bollinger Bands (20,2)

• Mid-band ≈ 0.1327; price is in the lower half of the bands. Bandwidth has compressed significantly after the capitulation spike—typical of a coil. Compression inside a downtrend tends to resolve with a continuation lower unless a catalyst flips momentum.

Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) daily (est.): low-to-mid 40s—bearish-neutral. Not oversold; room exists for a push lower without a momentum-constraint.
• Stochastic daily: likely in the middle zone, curling but not signaling a robust trend change.
• MACD daily: below zero with a flattening histogram—momentum loss after the capitulation bounce, but no bullish cross confirmation yet.

Volatility and range

• 14D ATR (est.) ~0.012–0.015. With current compression, realized range near-term is tighter: intraday ATR on the hour ~0.0008–0.0012. Expect a 24h realized range roughly 0.006–0.010 unless a volatility shock hits.
• Expected 24h range: 0.114–0.121 base case; tail scenarios stretch to 0.111 or 0.125 on stop runs.

Volume, flow, and participation

• Volume peaked massively during 10-13/10-14. Since then, participation has receded, consistent with post-capitulation digestion.
• OBV (qualitative): stabilized and slightly upticked since 10-22 but not enough to negate prior distribution.
• Rising into 0.1196–0.1200 lacked aggressive buy-through; repeated taps without expansion suggest supply is still in control there.

Fibonacci mapping

• Swing 10-06 high 0.1790 to 10-11 low 0.1019: key retracements at ~0.1314 (38.2%), 0.1405 (50%), 0.1495 (61.8%). Price failed at 0.1422 and 0.1491 mid-October, validating these as overhead resistance layers. Current price is below 38.2%—bearish posture.
• Micro swing 10-23 low 0.11093 to 10-24 high 0.11964: 61.8% at ≈0.1143; dip risk into that zone on any intraday roll.

Pivots and VWAP

• Daily pivot for 10-24 (from 10-23 H/L/C): P ≈ 0.117996; R1 ≈ 0.12506; S1 ≈ 0.11129; R2 ≈ 0.13177; S2 ≈ 0.10422.
• Current price toggles around P; failing to hold above P favors tests of S1.
• Intraday VWAP (approx.) sits roughly around 0.118–0.1183; price fluctuating just below/around it—neutral to slightly heavy. Persistent rejection above VWAP/RTH midpoint aligns with sell-the-rip.

Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Price below cloud; cloud likely red ahead. Tenkan near 0.118–0.119, Kijun closer to ~0.122–0.123. Price under Kijun with Tenkan ≈ flat to slightly up typically caps rallies unless a decisive reclaim occurs.

Parabolic SAR and Heikin-Ashi (qualitative)

• SAR likely above price on daily—a continuing downtrend state.
• Heikin-Ashi candles show smaller bodies recently—compression, not trend reversal confirmation.

Supply/demand and liquidity map

• Supply: 0.1196–0.1205 (intraday); 0.1248–0.1255 (R1 shelf); 0.130–0.133 (prior acceptance + 38.2%).
• Demand: 0.1160–0.1163; 0.1142–0.1150 (fib support); 0.1110–0.1113 (pivot S1 / prior close). Expect liquidity sweeps around round levels 0.1200 and 0.1150.

Regression and channels

• 30–45 day linear regression slope remains negative; price oscillates in the lower half of the channel. Mean reversion to the channel midline would target ~0.123–0.125, but probability weighted by trend suggests fades are higher expectancy until slope flattens.

Elliott/structure viewpoint (lite)

• Impulsive down leg into 10-10 (wave 3-like), followed by a choppy corrective complex. Current move looks like a small degree B wave within a flat/triangle that often resolves with a C leg lower toward established supports (0.114 → 0.111).

Catalysts and timing

• Weekend liquidity typically thins; in crypto this can exacerbate stop runs but also often means mean-reversion dominates without strong catalysts. With no clear positive catalyst and heavy overhead supply, base case is a drift lower or range.

Scenario analysis (next 24h)

• Base case (55%): Price rejects 0.1196–0.1200, rotates down toward 0.115–0.114; potential wick to ~0.1143 (fib 61.8). Close near 0.116–0.117.
• Bull case (30%): Quick reclaim/hold above pivot 0.1180 plus a clean break/hold above 0.1196 opens a push into 0.1218–0.1230; extension to 0.125 (R1) if volume expands.
• Bear extension (15%): A decisive break of 0.114 with momentum tests 0.111–0.1113 (S1). Only a cascade or news shock likely presses to S2 ~0.104.

Trade bias and plan

• Bias: Sell strength within 0.1195–0.1205, targeting 0.1148. This aligns with trend, pivots, and repeated supply response near 0.1196.
• Optimal entry: 0.1195 (limit short into the supply shelf just under the session high 0.11964).
• Take profit: 0.1148 (above micro 61.8% support at ~0.1143 to increase fill probability). Conservative exit acknowledges weekend liquidity.
• Invalidation/stop (not requested but prudent): 0.1209–0.1216 above the local shelf and round number; above there, 0.1248–0.125 becomes the next magnet.

Risk notes

• Given the compression, a brief stop-run above 0.1200 is possible before rotation down. Stale shorts may be flushed first; stagger entries or allow for a small overrun.
• If price reclaims and holds above 0.1196 then builds value >0.1205 with rising delta/volume, abandon the short bias and consider the alternate long toward 0.1218–0.1235 and possibly 0.125.

Bottom line

• Higher-timeframe trend is down, price is below 10D and 20D means, momentum is weak, and supply is respected at 0.1196–0.1200. The probabilistic edge favors a short near that shelf aiming for a rotation back to 0.115–0.114.

Prediction

• Likely path: 0.1188–0.1200 probe → rejection → 0.116–0.115 drift; intraday wick toward ~0.1145 is plausible before closing around 0.116–0.117. This supports a Sell-the-rip strategy for the next 24 hours.

Note: This is market commentary/education, not financial advice. Crypto is volatile; size positions appropriately and reassess if price acceptance occurs above 0.1205.