MANTRA (OM) VWAP Rejection Signals Another Leg Down: Short the Bounce, Aim for a 0.102 Sweep

Note: This is a market-education analysis, not financial advice. Use strict risk management.

Summary view (next 24 hours): Bias moderately bearish. Expect chop with a downward drift toward 0.102–0.104, with a possible liquidity sweep to the 0.100–0.102 area. Optimal plan: fade a bounce into 0.109–0.111 (near intraday VWAP/pivot R1) for a short back to 0.102–0.103.

1. Multi-timeframe trend and structure

• Higher-timeframe (daily): Persistent downtrend from early August highs ~0.29 to current ~0.106 (drawdown >60%). Lower highs and lower lows intact. The Oct 10 capitulation (intraday low ~0.0408, daily close 0.1068) reset the volatility regime but did not reverse trend.
• Intermediate structure (post-crash): Reaction rally to 0.142–0.154 (Oct 13–15) failed; since then a sequence of lower highs: ~0.136 -> 0.124 -> 0.123 -> 0.121 -> 0.119 -> 0.118 -> 0.113 and now intraday spike to 0.1178 (Oct 31 03:00) that was sold hard. Market structure remains bearish below 0.117–0.118.
• Intraday (hourly): Today’s profile shows a morning impulse to 0.1178 on heavy volume followed by steady distribution and a grind down to ~0.106. This is classic “sell the rip” behavior in a downtrend.

2. Moving averages and trend filters

• 20D SMA: ≈0.1186 (computed from the last 20 closes). Price is below the 20D by ~10.7%, confirming bearish momentum on daily.
• 50D SMA: Likely in the ~0.16–0.17 area (owing to higher September prints). Price far below, reinforcing primary downtrend.
• 9D/12D EMAs (qualitative): Rolling over ~0.112–0.114; price sits beneath both. No bullish crossovers in sight.
• 1H EMAs: Price is hugging/under the 9/21 EMA stack after rejecting 0.1178. EMA fans are downward sloping. Interpretation: Trend filters across frames remain negative; rallies into MA clusters are for selling until proven otherwise.

3. Momentum oscillators

• RSI (daily, 14): Likely mid-30s to low-40s after multiple down closes; not deeply oversold but weak. Room for further downside without triggering an immediate mean-reversion impulse.
• RSI (1H): Recovered during the 03:00 spike, then rolled back below 50; momentum failed at resistance. Near-term RSI suggests distribution rather than accumulation.
• Stochastics (1H/4H): Likely crossed down from mid/high levels post-spike; supports a short-on-bounce approach.
• MACD (daily): Below zero with a flat-to-slightly improving histogram; no confirmed bullish crossover. On 1H, MACD ticked up on the spike but rolled over—bearish continuation setup. Interpretation: Momentum is weak; failed momentum on intraday spikes is characteristic of bear control.

4. Volatility and Bollinger Bands

• Daily Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid-band ≈0.1186; lower band roughly ~0.094 (given current stdev); upper band ~0.143. Price resides in the lower half, not tagging the band currently—room to ooze lower without extreme oversold conditions. Mean reversion target would be the mid-band ~0.1186, but overhead supply has capped bounces far sooner (0.113–0.118).
• ATR (14D): Contracted since the crash; current realized daily moves typically ~0.005–0.01. A 24h swing to 0.102–0.104 is reasonable; 0.099–0.100 possible on a liquidity sweep. Interpretation: Volatility is manageable; downside probes to big round 0.100 likely attract stop runs and quick wicks.

5. Fibonacci and pivots

• Swing used: Oct 13 rebound high 0.16476 to Oct 30 low 0.10213. Retracements: 23.6% ≈0.11691; 38.2% ≈0.12605; 50% ≈0.13345; 61.8% ≈0.14086.
• Today’s high 0.1178 essentially kissed the 23.6% and failed—textbook shallow retracement rejection inside a prevailing downtrend.
• Classical daily pivots (based on Oct 30 H/L/C: 0.11153/0.09982/0.10213):
  • PP ≈ 0.10449
  • R1 ≈ 0.10917
  • R2 ≈ 0.11620
  • S1 ≈ 0.09746 Interpretation: R1 (~0.1092) and R2 (~0.1162) align with today’s intraday supply. The market already rejected near R2-equivalent (23.6% fib), making R1 a prime zone to fade.

6. Volume, VWAP, and order flow

• Volume footprints: Large volume burst on the 03:00 candle to 0.1178, but the candle closed at 0.1136 and subsequent hours unwound—suggests distribution into strength.
• Intraday VWAP (today): Approx in the 0.108–0.110 area (skewed higher by the heavy volume on the spike). Price now sub-VWAP, indicating sellers control the session.
• OBV/Volume trend: Downward bias overall post-Oct 15; no persistent accumulation. Today’s spike did not convert into rising OBV—another distribution tell. Interpretation: Sub-VWAP trade following a high-volume rejection is a reliable signal to sell bounces back to VWAP.

7. Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Daily: Price below Tenkan and Kijun; cloud above and thickened—bearish regime.
• 1H: Price below cloud after rejection; Kijun likely ~0.109–0.110, Tenkan ~0.106. A mean reversion to Kijun/VWAP (0.109–0.110) is a high-probability sell zone. Interpretation: Expect pullback toward Kijun/VWAP, then continuation lower.

8. Market profile, supply/demand, and liquidity

• Supply zones: 0.113–0.118 (today’s spike failure and multiple recent rejections); 0.132–0.136; 0.142–0.154 overhead. The nearest actionable supply is 0.109–0.111 (intraday microstructure) and 0.113–0.118 (if a larger bounce occurs).
• Demand zones: 0.102–0.104 (recent base/high-volume node); psychological 0.100. Below 0.100, thin air to ~0.097–0.098 (S1).
• Liquidity: Obvious stops likely sit below 0.102 and at 0.100; a stop-hunt wick toward 0.099–0.0985 is plausible if 0.102 fails. Interpretation: Attractive asymmetry to sell into 0.109–0.111 and cover near 0.102–0.103; optional trailing cover if a wick prints sub-0.100.

9. Pattern read and candlesticks

• Intraday: Long upper wicks into 0.115–0.118; lower highs forming a descending channel. Today’s post-spike candles are small-bodied with lower highs—classic rollover.
• Daily: Oct 30 printed a bearish wide-range candle closing near lows. Today’s session is an inside-to-narrow day so far under key MAs—continuation risk remains. Interpretation: No reversal pattern; this is distribution in a downtrend.

10. DeMark/Sequential (qualitative)

• No clear daily 9/13 exhaustion; recent counts likely mid-sequence. Hourly counts after the spike have reset and are building a bearish progression. Interpretation: No exhaustion buy signal yet.

11. Scenario analysis (24h)

• Base case (60%): Fade into 0.109–0.111 fails; price revisits 0.103–0.104 and tests 0.102. Close in the 0.103–0.106 band.
• Bear extension (25%): 0.102 gives; quick sweep 0.100–0.0985 (toward S1 0.0975) before mean reversion back above 0.101.
• Bull surprise (15%): Sustained reclaim of 0.112 with acceptance above 0.116 (R2/23.6% fib) opens 0.120–0.123; daily mid-band ~0.1186 becomes magnet if 0.116 holds as support. This is the invalidation path for the short.

12. Trade plan logic and risk

• Thesis: Sell strength in a primary downtrend after a failed 23.6% retracement and VWAP rejection. Align entry with confluence at R1/VWAP/Kijun (~0.109–0.110). Target the demand shelf and liquidity pocket 0.102–0.103.
• Entry: 0.1092–0.1100 zone; prefer 0.1092 (daily R1) as the first touch short.
• Target (TP): 0.1018–0.1025 range. Choose 0.1018 to be hit by a sweep while front-running the 0.101–0.102 bid wall.
• Stop (for risk control; not part of the required fields but strongly advised): 0.1148–0.1165. Above 0.1162 (R2 / 23.6% fib) the short thesis is compromised; 0.1148 is a tighter stop just above local supply if you want a better R:R.
• R:R example: Entry 0.1092, stop 0.1148 (+5.1% risk), TP 0.1018 (-6.8% reward) = ~1.33 R. If using 0.1165 stop, risk widens but reduces whipsaw risk. You can improve R:R by scaling in 0.1092 and 0.1112 and averaging to ~0.1102.

13. Key levels to watch

• Supports: 0.1045 (PP), 0.103–0.104 shelf, 0.102 pivot lows, 0.100 psych, 0.0975 (S1).
• Resistances: 0.1092 (R1/VWAP/Kijun area), 0.1120–0.1135 (micro supply), 0.1162 (R2 / 23.6% fib), 0.1186 (20D mid-band).

14. Why not long here?

• Counter-trend longs from 0.106 carry poor reward unless capturing 0.116–0.118 within 24h; this requires a VWAP reclaim and acceptance above 0.112 first. Until then, bounces are better entries for shorts.

15. 24-hour price path projection

• Likely range: 0.100–0.112, with time-at-price concentrated 0.104–0.109. Path: Early bounce to ~0.109, fail near R1/VWAP, fade to 0.103–0.104, with a late-session probe toward 0.101–0.102 if liquidity thins.

Risk notes

• Thin liquidity and weekend transition can produce sharp wicks. Use limit orders and avoid chasing breakdowns under 0.102; better to let price come to the planned entry and to take profits into the 0.102–0.103 bid zone. Always size appropriately.