OM poised for a one-ATR snapback: Tactical long from the pivot toward 0.086

Executive summary

• Bias for the next 24 hours: Tactical bounce likely from deeply oversold conditions within a broader daily downtrend. Expect mean reversion toward 0.084–0.086 before overhead supply reasserts.
• Trade idea: Buy the dip on a pullback toward 0.080–0.081 with a take-profit near 0.086 (first heavy resistance cluster). If momentum accelerates, extension to ~0.088 is possible, but base case is a one-ATR bounce.

1. Market structure and price action

• Primary trend: Bearish. Since mid-October, OM has made a sequence of lower highs and lower lows. Key lower highs: 0.1023 (Nov 10), 0.0972 (Nov 13), 0.0914 (Nov 14), 0.08796 (Nov 15), 0.08625 (Nov 16), 0.08321 (Nov 17), 0.08273 (Nov 18), 0.08163 (Nov 19). New swing low printed on Nov 19 at 0.07558.
• Current price context: 0.08223 is a rebound off the new low; price has reclaimed yesterday’s pivot and is probing above R1 (see pivot section). This is consistent with a short-term relief bounce inside a descending channel.
• Candlestick read: Nov 19 formed a small real body with a long lower wick (hammer-like), suggesting dip demand. Today’s push above pivot R1 confirms a short-term attempt to mean-revert.
• Support and resistance (nearest): • Supports: 0.0793 (Nov 19 close), 0.0777–0.0780 (Nov 17–18 lows), 0.0756 (new swing low), 0.0728 (S2 calc).
  • Resistances: 0.0827–0.0832 (Nov 17–18 micro-swing highs), 0.0849 (R2), 0.0862–0.0863 (Nov 16 high, Fib 38.2% of local leg), 0.0914 (Nov 14 high), 0.097–0.102 (heavy supply area).

2. Momentum and oscillators

• RSI(14): ~39 at yesterday’s close; intraday bounce likely lifts RSI toward low-40s. Interpretation: Bearish regime but edging out of oversold; room to bounce before hitting the midline at 50.
• Stochastic(14,3,3): Using 14-day high 0.1066 and low 0.0756, today’s %K ≈ 21%. Yesterday’s close implied ~12%. This rising-from-oversold cross often precedes a 1–2 day pop in downtrends.
• MACD(12,26,9): Negative and below the signal on the daily, but histogram contraction has started (bearish momentum waning). A minor bullish turn in the histogram is typical at the early phase of mean reversion.
• Bullish divergence: Price made a lower low (0.0756) vs. prior lows, while RSI did not materially undercut prior troughs—subtle positive momentum divergence.

3. Trend-following baselines

• Moving averages (approximations):
  • 5-EMA ≈ 0.081–0.082; price is attempting to reclaim it.
  • 20-SMA ≈ 0.093; price below—primary downtrend intact; mean-reversion target into 0.084–0.089 before the 20-SMA acts as strong resistance.
  • 50-SMA ≈ 0.12; far overhead, confirming the larger bearish regime.
• Ichimoku (daily, qualitative): Price well below a likely red cloud; Tenkan < Kijun and both above price. Any bounce likely stalls below the Kijun/Cloud boundary, reinforcing 0.086–0.091 as resistance zone in the next 24–48 hours.
• ADX(14) qualitative: Trend strength moderate; DI- > DI+. However, ADX likely flattening as the latest down-leg decelerates—fertile ground for a short-term countertrend bounce.

4. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands(20,2): Mid-band near ~0.093, lower band near ~0.074–0.076. Yesterday’s low kissed the lower band; current price is rebounding off it. Base-case move is toward the mid-lower band region (0.084–0.086) before sellers re-emerge.
• Keltner Channels(20,ATR1): Price is lifting from the lower KC; reversion to the middle line aligns with 0.084–0.086.
• ATR(14): ~0.006. One-ATR from 0.080–0.081 projects to ~0.086–0.087, matching resistance confluence.

5. Volume and flow

• Volume trend: After October’s capitulation spikes, recent sessions show declining volume into the new low—classic sign of seller exhaustion. Yesterday’s washout with a long lower wick and lighter volume hints at absorbed supply.
• OBV (qualitative): Down over the past month but stabilizing over the last 3–5 sessions; mild positive divergence versus price.
• MFI (qualitative): Likely in low-30s/40s, echoing RSI—liquidity outflows slowing; scope for a liquidity-backed bounce.

6. Pivots and intraday reference levels (Classic) Using Nov 19 H/L/C: H 0.08163, L 0.07558, C 0.07929

• Pivot P = 0.07883
• R1 = 0.08209 (now marginally reclaimed)
• R2 = 0.08489
• S1 = 0.07603; S2 = 0.07278
  Interpretation: Trading above R1 supports a push toward R2 (0.0849). If momentum persists, next natural magnet is 0.0862 (prior swing high / micro-supply).

7. Fibonacci mapping

• Local swing: 0.10227 (Nov 10 high) → 0.07558 (Nov 19 low).
  • 38.2% = 0.0858, 50% = 0.0890, 61.8% = 0.0921.
  • First bounce objective aligns at 0.0858–0.0863, overlapping prior highs and R2+ region.
• Larger swing: 0.179 (early Oct) → 0.0756 (Nov 19 low).
  • 38.2% = ~0.115. Not relevant to a 24h horizon but underscores how far below major MAs price sits; any larger retrace would face heavy supply well before 0.115.

8. Channel, regression, and z-score

• Descending channel: Price is rebounding from the lower boundary; median line sits near 0.084–0.085 in the near term.
• 20-day z-score: (0.082 − 0.093)/~0.009 ≈ −1.2. Historically, −1 to −2 sigma prints often revert toward the mean band within 1–3 sessions.

9. Pattern and Wyckoff lens

• Wyckoff read (micro): Potential spring/terminal shakeout at 0.0756, now testing back above the breakdown zone (0.079–0.081). A successful test typically drives price to the top of the short-term range (0.085–0.087) before encountering supply.

10. Scenario analysis (24h)

• Bullish mean-reversion to 0.085–0.086: 55%
• Range-bound churn 0.079–0.083: 30%
• Breakdown to new lows <0.0756: 15%
  Edge justification: Multiple oversold signals (RSI/Stoch/Bands), pivot reclaim, decelerating downside momentum, and declining sell volume favor a bounce, albeit within a dominant downtrend.

11. Risk management and execution plan

• Strategy: Countertrend long with tight risk. Buy a pullback toward 0.080–0.081 to improve reward-to-risk; target the first resistance cluster 0.0858–0.0863.
• Stop-loss (not part of the asked fields, but crucial): Below 0.0754 (under yesterday’s low and S1–S2 buffer).
• Reward-to-risk: From 0.0806 entry to 0.0862 target = +0.0056. Risk to 0.0754 = −0.0052. R:R ~1.1:1. This is acceptable for a short-duration mean-reversion setup with >50% probability. For more conservative traders, either wait for a deeper dip (0.0795) or partial scale-outs near R2 (0.0849) to lock gains.

12. Confluence summary

• Bullish for 24h: Oversold Stoch rising, RSI below but approaching 40s, MACD histogram contraction, hammer-like wick at fresh low, pivot R1 reclaimed, Bollinger/Keltner lower-band reversal, decelerating volume on the down-leg, minor bullish divergence.
• Bearish medium-term: Price below 20/50-day MAs and below Ichimoku cloud; descending channel intact; significant overhead supply between 0.086–0.091 and 0.097–0.102.
  Net: Favor a tactical Buy targeting 0.0862 in the next session, then reassess for potential fade.

Prediction for next 24 hours

• Expected range: 0.0765–0.0865. Base-case path: early pullback toward 0.080–0.081, then push to 0.0849–0.0862 into overhead supply.