MANTRA (OM): Coiled Under Resistance — Set Up for a Lower Fib Sweep

Step 1 — Context and market structure (Daily timeframe)

• Regime: Persistent downtrend since late August (0.22 ➝ 0.08). Structure of lower highs/lower lows is intact despite a sharp bounce on Nov 26.
• Notable events:
  • Sep 22 break to 0.175 (trend acceleration lower).
  • Oct 10 capitulation wick to ~0.0408 with V-shape recovery to ~0.10.
  • Oct 13–15 heavy-volume redistribution (0.14–0.15 rejected), then consistent stair-step lower into mid-Nov.
  • Nov 21 local low ~0.07035; Nov 26 high-volume spike to 0.0873; now consolidating near 0.081.
• Current microstructure: Tight range 0.0795–0.0820 over the last 24h, suggesting a volatility contraction beneath multi-day resistance.

Step 2 — Trend and moving averages

• SMA(20) ≈ 0.0830 (est.). Price 0.0811 is below the 20SMA ➝ short-term bearish bias with potential mean reversion magnet near 0.083 on counter-moves.
• SMA(50) well above (≈0.10+ by inspection of prior prices) ➝ medium-term trend remains down.
• EMA(9)/EMA(21) (est.): 9EMA rising but still below 21EMA; no bullish crossover confirmation.
• Linear regression slope (last 30–40 sessions) remains negative; recent bounce merely tested the regression midline. Conclusion: Dominant trend is down; near-term is a countertrend pause under resistance.

Step 3 — Momentum

• RSI(14) ≈ 45 (calc. from recent closes). Neutral-bearish; failed to push through 50 on the Nov 26 bounce.
• Stochastic (est. ~35–40): points to weak momentum, no strong overbought/oversold edge.
• MACD (12,26,9) qualitative read: Below zero; histogram flattening after the Nov 26 thrust but no clear bullish cross-through. Momentum uptick stalled.
• Williams %R/CCI (qualitative): hover in mid-range; neither shows strong accumulation pressure. Conclusion: Momentum has stabilized but not flipped bullish; downside follow-through risk remains.

Step 4 — Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) daily (est.) ≈ 0.0045–0.0060. A 24h move of ~5% is feasible.
• Bollinger Bands(20,2): Mid-band ≈ 0.083. Upper ≈ 0.098; Lower ≈ 0.068 (est.). Price sits between lower band and mid-band, reflecting a weak state with room to drift lower without being oversold.
• Keltner Channels vs. BB: BB width has contracted relative to late-Oct/early-Nov; volatility squeeze setting up beneath resistance favors a break in the direction of the primary downtrend. Conclusion: Compression beneath resistance increases probability of a downside release to test recent supports.

Step 5 — Volume and flows

• Nov 26: outsized volume spike on the bounce to 0.0873. Next two sessions saw fading volumes into a stall near 0.081–0.082, implying lack of follow-through buying.
• OBV/CMF (qualitative): OBV uptick on Nov 26 partially unwound; CMF likely near neutral to slightly negative as price faded under resistance.
• Wyckoff lens: This looks like a markdown environment with the Nov 26 rally as an LPSY (Last Point of Supply) — a rally that fails beneath prior resistances where supply re-enters. Conclusion: The bounce appears distributive rather than accumulative.

Step 6 — Support, resistance, and confluence

• Resistance
  • 0.0821–0.0825: 0.382 Fib of the Nov 21–27 swing; intraday selling showed up here.
  • 0.0836–0.0850: Multi-day cluster and likely anchored-VWAP gravity from the Nov 26 spike; also near the 20SMA.
  • 0.0873: Nov 26 close; failure here would mark a regime change (not base case).
• Support
  • 0.0799–0.0800: 50% retracement of the 0.07035 ➝ 0.08945 swing.
  • 0.0776: 61.8% retracement; strong technical magnet if pullback accelerates.
  • 0.0735–0.0721: Late-Nov cluster and prior low; next downside target on a heavier break.
• Classic pivots (Nov 27 H=0.08945, L=0.08148, C=0.08153)
  • Pivot P ≈ 0.08415; R1 ≈ 0.08683; S1 ≈ 0.07885; S2 ≈ 0.07618. Current price is below pivot, between P and S1 ➝ bearish bias toward S1. Conclusion: Layered resistance above (0.082–0.085) vs. nearby supports (0.080, 0.0776). Risk-reward favors short entries into 0.082–0.083 with targets near 0.078–0.0776.

Step 7 — Fibonacci and harmonic context

• Swing low (Nov 21) 0.07035 to swing high (Nov 27) 0.08945 yields:
  • 38.2%: ~0.08215 (current underside resistance)
  • 50%: ~0.07990 (first support/magnet)
  • 61.8%: ~0.07764 (key target)
• Price is oscillating between 38.2% and 50% levels; failure to reclaim 38.2% usually implies a drift to 61.8%.

Step 8 — Pattern diagnostics

• Potential bear flag/descending channel post-bounce: Lower highs into the 0.082–0.083 shelf.
• Candlesticks: Two sessions of small-bodied indecision/spinning-top behavior near resistance indicate supply absorption and likely continuation lower.
• Heikin-Ashi equivalent would show reduced body size and lingering upper wicks — typical of stall phases in a downtrend.

Step 9 — Intraday (hourly) microstructure

• Tight coil 0.0796–0.0819 with repeated rejections just under 0.082.
• Small spurts of volume on upticks are getting sold; bid supports around 0.080 get tested repeatedly — risk of slip to 0.0799 then 0.078x.
• VWAP (session) roughly near current; failure to hold above intraday VWAP on pushes is indicative of seller control.

Step 10 — Auxiliary indicators

• ADX(14) (est.) low–mid teens to ~20: weak trend strength but sufficient for a push to next support.
• Parabolic SAR likely overhead near 0.084–0.085; still on sell mode.
• Donchian 20-day: High ~0.102; Low ~0.070. Current in lower-middle of channel, not in breakout position.

Step 11 — Probability-weighted 24h outlook

• Base case (60%): Range-to-down break. Retest 0.0820–0.0825 fails; price fades to 0.0799 and probes 0.078–0.0776 (Fib 61.8%).
• Neutral range (25%): 0.0795–0.0835 equilibrium persists with whipsaws; no decisive break.
• Bullish surprise (15%): Squeeze above 0.0835–0.0850 triggering stops, extending toward 0.087–0.089; this would challenge the short thesis and imply regime change if sustained.

Step 12 — Trade plan and risk management (short bias)

• Rationale: Primary trend down; price compressed under 0.382 Fib and below 20SMA; momentum neutral-bearish; fading volume after one-day spike; pivot model points to S1/S2.
• Optimal entry: Short on a minor pop into 0.0822 (confluence of intraday rejection zone and 0.382 Fib), avoiding chasing at 0.0810.
• Take-profit: 0.0776 (61.8% Fib) — within one ATR and a high-probability magnet in a failed-bounce scenario.
• Invalidation/stop (not an order field, but critical): Above 0.0849–0.0855 (20SMA/cluster). A decisive reclaim would indicate a push toward 0.087–0.089.
• Risk/Reward from 0.0822 ➝ 0.0776: reward ≈ 0.0046; suggested stop ≈ 0.0852 (risk 0.0030) ⇒ R:R ~1.5:1 (improvable if scaling adds near 0.0830–0.0835).

Bottom line

• The weight of evidence favors a Sell-the-rally setup over the next 24 hours, targeting a drift to 0.0776 if 0.0822 holds as resistance. If price cleanly reclaims 0.085 on strong breadth/volume, the short thesis is invalidated.