OM at the Brink: Fade the 78.6% Retrace — Short the Bounce Toward 0.082

Summary view

• Ticker: MANTRA (OM)
• Current price: $0.079535
• Regime: Primary downtrend since early Oct; brief dead‑cat bounce on Nov 26 faded; price now below 20D SMA and under key retracement levels. Intraday closes near lows signal supply dominance.
• 24h bias: Sell rallies. Expect a lower‑high bounce toward 0.081–0.0825, then continuation to 0.077–0.075 range if support breaks.

1. Price structure and trend

• Macro context (Sep → Nov): OM fell from ~0.21 (early Sep) to ~0.16 (late Sep), capitulated Oct 10 (intraday low ~0.0408; close ~0.1068), rebounded to ~0.142 (Oct 13) and then trended lower through Nov. Another notable volume/price spike occurred Nov 26 to ~0.0981; that rally has since retraced deeply.
• Market structure: A series of lower highs and lower lows remains intact. The Nov 26 spike looks like a sharp corrective rally within a broader downtrend. Since then, daily candles: down (Nov 27), up (Nov 28), down (Nov 29) with a lower high, suggesting a developing bear flag that is rolling over.
• Support/resistance map (confluence driven): • Supports: 0.0788 (78.6% retrace of Nov 21→26 swing), 0.0771 (Nov 25 close pivot), 0.0749 (Nov 24–26 range floor), 0.0735 (Nov 21 swing low).
  • Resistances: 0.0815–0.0825 (20D SMA ≈ 0.08221 and micro supply), 0.0840–0.0851 (Nov 28 high/23.6% of larger downswing), 0.0873–0.0895 (Nov 26 close/27th intraday), 0.0981 (Nov 26 spike high), 0.1068 (Oct 10 close).
• Takeaway: Price currently sits between micro support (0.0788–0.0793) and nearby resistance (≈0.082). The path of least resistance remains down while below 0.082–0.085.

2. Moving averages and trend filters

• SMA5 ≈ 0.0820 (below current? current is 0.0795; so price < SMA5). This indicates near‑term softness; the Nov 26/28 bounce is fading.
• SMA10 ≈ 0.0782 (price slightly above). This mix (price < SMA5 but > SMA10) often denotes a pullback after a short bounce with momentum deteriorating.
• SMA20 ≈ 0.08221 (price below). Being below the 20D baseline keeps the short‑term trend bearish.
• 50D SMA (qualitative): Well above price and sloping down given Oct levels >0.10–0.12.
• MA ribbon view: Short MAs curl lower while all higher MAs sit above price—classic bear regime with rallies likely to be sold.

3. Momentum indicators

• RSI(14) (computed from Nov 16–29 closes): ≈ 47 (Avg gain ≈ 0.00144; Avg loss ≈ 0.00162; RS ≈ 0.89; RSI ≈ 47). Neutral‑to‑slightly bearish—room to fall before oversold (<30).
• Stochastic oscillator (14‑period, using recent 14D high 0.0981 and low 0.07035): %K ≈ 33%. Momentum sits on the weak side of neutral, consistent with downside risk.
• MACD(12,26,9) (qualitative): After the Nov 26 surge, the fast EMA rose toward the slow but has stalled on the retrace; histogram is thinning/near flat or slightly negative. This hints at a waning bounce and potential bear re‑engagement.
• Rate of Change (ROC, 10D): From 0.0783 (Nov 20) to 0.0795 today ≈ +1.6%—but that hides the spike and fade; momentum breadth favors sellers.

4. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Middle ≈ 0.0822; current price below midline and likely mid‑lower band. No extreme lower‑band tag now, so there’s space for another push down before mean reversion.
• 20D z‑score (approx): (0.0795 − 0.0822)/σ. With σ ≈ 0.007 (est.), z ≈ −0.38—mildly below mean, not capitulatory.
• ATR(14) (approx): 0.005–0.007, elevated by the Nov 26 range. Expect 24h swings of ~6–9% of price; thin weekend liquidity increases wick risk.

5. Volume, breadth, and flow

• Volume spikes: Oct 10–15 and Nov 26 were the largest bursts—both during/after dislocations. Post‑spike action tends to distribute lower in this regime.
• Nov 26 uptick (to 0.0981) saw 189M volume, followed by declining volume on Nov 27–29 as price slipped—classic rally‑fade distribution.
• OBV (qualitative): Up‑thrust on Nov 26, then roll‑over. No follow‑through accumulation evident; supply reasserting.

6. Fibonacci and confluence

• Micro swing (Nov 21 low 0.07354 → Nov 26 high 0.09809):
  • 38.2% = 0.08871; 50% = 0.08582; 61.8% = 0.08292; 78.6% = 0.07878.
  • Price is below 61.8% and hovering near the 78.6% retrace—deep retracement typical of failed rallies. Losing 0.0788 often leads to a full round‑trip toward 0.0735.
• Larger downswing (Oct 31 high 0.1180 → Nov 21 low 0.0735):
  • 23.6% ≈ 0.0840; 38.2% ≈ 0.0901; 50% ≈ 0.0958; 61.8% ≈ 0.101.
  • The Nov 26 bounce stalled near the 50–61.8% zone (0.096–0.101) and failed to hold 23.6% (0.0840). Now trading below that threshold confirms bears in control.

7. Ichimoku overview (daily)

• Tenkan (9‑period mid) ≈ (0.0981 + 0.07035)/2 ≈ 0.0842.
• Kijun (26‑period mid) ≈ ((~0.1066 high) + 0.07035 low)/2 ≈ 0.0885.
• Price (0.0795) is below Tenkan and Kijun; the cloud ahead is likely bearish. Tenkan < Kijun and price below both = bearish alignment.

8. Pattern and candle diagnostics

• Candles: Nov 26 long up‑candle; Nov 27 sharp give‑back; Nov 28 lower‑volume green; Nov 29 red close near lows—lower high + close near session low = supply pressure.
• Pattern: Rising wedge/bear flag from Nov 21 has broken lower; the last bounce into 0.084–0.085 failed at prior resistance.
• Mean‑reversion context: With RSI ~47 and Stoch ~33, it’s not stretched; bounces likely limited to nearby moving‑average caps (0.082–0.085) before sellers fade them.

9. Scenario matrix (next 24 hours)

• Base case (55%): Fade bounce to 0.081–0.0825; roll over through 0.0788 to 0.077–0.075. Stops below 0.0788 can accelerate to 0.0749 and possibly 0.0735.
• Counter‑trend (35%): Hold 0.0788–0.079 and squeeze to 0.0815–0.0840 (20D SMA/23.6% level). Without volume expansion, likely stalls there.
• Bull surprise (10%): Strong bid reclaims 0.085 and squeezes to 0.087–0.089; would require clear volume pickup and broader market tailwind.

10. Trade plan logic

• Edge source: Confluence of (a) price below 20D SMA and Ichimoku baselines, (b) deep retracement below 61.8% of the Nov 21–26 swing, (c) failure to hold 23.6% of the larger downswing, (d) distribution after a high‑volume spike, and (e) momentum neutral‑weak (RSI < 50, Stoch ~33).
• Entry tactic: Sell the bounce into resistance rather than chase lows—target the 0.0815–0.0825 supply shelf (near 20D SMA and beneath 61.8% retrace at 0.0829).
• Profit target: 0.0749 (pre‑breakdown shelf) where bids may appear; secondary down‑extension could tag 0.0735, but 0.0749 captures high‑probability liquidity.
• Risk framing (not part of order but for context): A protective stop above 0.0862 (above Nov 28 high/cluster) gives ~0.0044 risk from 0.0818 entry with ~0.0069 reward to 0.0749 (R:R ≈ 1.6:1).
• Time window: 24 hours; weekend illiquidity favors wick‑ups into resistance then fade.

11. What would invalidate

• Clean reclaim and hold above 0.085 on rising volume, or a daily close above 0.087–0.089, would negate the short and shift bias toward a squeeze to 0.098.

12. Forecast

• Expect intraday oscillation 0.0785–0.0815 early, a probe into 0.0818–0.0822 for optimal short entry, then a roll toward 0.077–0.075. Spike risks up to 0.083–0.084 if shorts are squeezed, but baseline bias points lower.

Note: This is a market analysis and not financial advice. Always size positions appropriately and consider additional risk controls.