Sell the Bounce: OM Faces Overhead Supply at 0.081–0.084 After a Failed Breakout

Executive summary and directional bias

• Direction for next 24h: Mildly bearish-to-range. Expecting a sell-the-bounce profile with intraday rallies likely capped near 0.081–0.084 and downside probing 0.075–0.077.
• Rationale: Persistent downtrend below all key MAs, failed breakout on 11/26 with subsequent bearish follow-through, price below anchored VWAP from the breakout day, and confluence of resistances around the 20-D SMA and 38.2% Fib. Short-term oscillators are neutral-to-weak and not yet deeply oversold, leaving room for another leg lower after bounces.

Data context and regime check

• Current price: 0.079535 (USD). Latest print: 2025-11-29 19:34 UTC. Dataset spans 2025-09-01 to 2025-11-29.
• Structural regime: Post-October 10 drawdown (flash crash to 0.0408 intraday, recovery close 0.1068) transitioned into a persistent series of lower highs and lower lows. Attempts to base during mid-Nov failed to recapture medium-term resistances. A high-volume 11/26 breakout attempt (H 0.09809, C 0.087315) faded immediately with two-session distribution.

Trend and momentum (MA/EMA crossovers, ROC)

• 20-day SMA ≈ 0.0822 (avg of last 20 closes). Price is ~3.2% below it → near-term bearish bias.
• 50-day SMA (approx) ≈ 0.11–0.12 based on October levels → price trades ~25–30% below it → firmly bearish medium-term.
• Short EMAs: 8 EMA (approx) slightly below 21 EMA; both below 50 SMA → classic bearish stack.
• 10-day ROC: ~+1.6% (from 0.0783 to 0.0795), reflecting the 11/26 spike; however, ROC momentum is fading post-rejection.
• Takeaway: Momentum regained briefly on 11/26 but failed to transition trend; rallies are supply-capped below the declining 20-SMA/EMA cluster.

Oscillators (RSI, Stochastics, MACD)

• RSI(14) ≈ 47: neutral-to-bearish; neither oversold nor strong. Leaves room for downside continuation after shallow bounces.
• Stochastics(14): Using 11/21 low 0.07035 and 11/26 high 0.09809, %K ≈ 33% → lower third of range, but not washed out. Supports sell-the-bounce rather than bottom-fishing.
• MACD (12,26,9): Likely still negative. Histogram briefly improved around 11/26 then rolled lower as price slipped under the 20-SMA. No bullish crossover signal.

Volatility and bands (Bollinger, ATR, Keltner)

• Bollinger Bands(20,2): Mid ≈ 0.0822; estimated upper ≈ 0.090; lower ≈ 0.074. Price sits in the lower half, near the lower band zone. Mean reversion can produce small bounces, but the dominant trend favors re-tests of the lower band after rejection near the mid-band.
• ATR(14): Elevated due to 11/26 range (0.0749–0.0981). Daily ATR now likely ~0.005–0.006 (6–8% of spot). Expect intraday swings of ~0.004–0.006 over 24h.
• Keltner Channels: Price near/below lower KC earlier this week; current stance near lower-to-mid KC, consistent with weak mean reversion rallies fading at the middle line.

Volume, flow, and positioning (OBV, anchored VWAP, volume analysis)

• 11/26 volume spike pushed price to 0.0981 but closed 0.0873; subsequent sessions unwound gains. Classic bull-trap footprint.
• Anchored VWAP (anchored to 11/26): Approx typical price that day ≈ (H+L+C)/3 ≈ 0.0868. Adding 11/27–29 typical prices, the anchored VWAP likely holds ~0.085–0.086. Current price (0.0795) is materially below → late longs from the breakout are underwater; overhead supply likely to sell rallies.
• OBV: Spike up on 11/26 then retracement on 11/27–29. Net effect—distribution post-spike, consistent with supply at 0.085–0.089.

Market structure and pattern context

• Structure: Lower highs since Oct. Post-11/21 low (0.07035), price set a reaction high on 11/26 (0.09809) and failed to hold above 0.087. Subsequent lower closes maintain a descending channel.
• Descending channel (Nov): Upper boundary ~0.085–0.088, lower boundary ~0.072–0.076; midline ~0.079–0.081. Price is oscillating near the mid-lower band of the channel. Channel dynamics favor shorting pops to the mid/upper rail.
• Candlestick read: 11/26 wide-range bullish day followed by 11/27 strong reversal lower and 11/28–29 mixed-to-lower closes. Sequence often precedes another downside test.

Fibonacci and key levels

• Swing low (11/21): 0.07035; swing high (11/26): 0.09809; range = 0.02774.
• Fib retracements from low→high:
  • 38.2%: 0.08095
  • 50%: 0.08422
  • 61.8%: 0.08748
• Price now below 38.2% (0.08095) and under mid-band (20-SMA ~0.0822). Rallies into 0.081–0.084 are high-probability rejection zones.
• Horizontal S/R map:
  • Immediate resistance: 0.0809–0.0825 (Fib 38.2% + 20-SMA), then 0.0842–0.085 (50% Fib + prior close cluster), then 0.0873–0.088 (11/26 close/61.8% Fib), and 0.090–0.093.
  • Supports: 0.0771 (11/25 C), 0.0749 (11/24 C), 0.0735 (11/21 C), and 0.0703 (swing low). Liquidity likely sits just below 0.0735.

Ichimoku snapshot (daily)

• Price < Tenkan and < Kijun; Cloud likely overhead from the 0.085–0.095 band. Bearish alignment with potential mean-reversion taps into Tenkan/Kijun before rolling.

Stat-arb lens (Z-score, regression channel)

• 20-day Z-score vs SMA is slightly negative (~-0.6 to -0.8 by eyeball given BB position), not extreme. Mean reversion bounces can occur, but the persistent negative slope of SMA suggests bounces fade under the SMA.
• Linear regression (last 30–40 sessions) slope remains negative; price currently below the regression line.

Risk framing and scenarios (24h horizon)

• Base case (~55–60%): Sell-the-bounce. Price tests 0.081–0.0825 (SMA20/Fib 38.2%), stalls, and fades toward 0.076–0.075. Intraday low risk toward 0.073–0.074 if momentum accelerates.
• Alternate bullish (~25–30%): Sustained reclaim of 0.0825 and 0.0842 (50% Fib) on rising volume could squeeze toward 0.087–0.088 (61.8% Fib/Kijun area). This would challenge short bias and is the ideal stop placement zone.
• Tail bearish (~10–15%): Swift liquidity slip below 0.0735 triggers stops for a re-test of 0.070–0.071. While plausible, requires additional negative catalyst or broad market risk-off.

Trade plan and execution detail (Short bias)

• Rationale to short: Downtrend intact across MAs; failed breakout with anchored VWAP overhead; neutral RSI (not oversold) allows downside; strong confluence resistance 0.081–0.084.
• Optimal entry: Fade into 0.0819 (within 0.081–0.0825 sell zone; aligns with Fib 38.2% at 0.08095 and beneath 20-SMA ≈0.0822). If price fails to bounce, consider scaling from 0.0805 to 0.0825; prefer patience to enhance RR.
• Take-profit (24h): 0.0753 (front-run the 0.0749/0.075 support band to improve fill probability within a one-day window). Expectation is a test of lower channel/mid-lower Bollinger in next session.
• Invalidation/stop (not executed in fields, but critical): 0.0866–0.0876 zone (above 61.8% Fib and under prior 11/26 high). A daily close above 0.0876 weakens the short thesis, while intraday breach suggests step aside.
• Position sizing/risk: Given ATR ~0.005–0.006, ensure the stop is at least 0.0045–0.005 above entry to avoid noise. RR at entry 0.0819 to TP 0.0753 is ~1.2–1.4 depending on stop placement.

What would flip me bullish within 24–48h?

• Strong impulsive reclaim and hold above 0.0842 (50% Fib) with rising OBV and an intraday anchored VWAP recapture, followed by a higher low above 0.081. That would set 0.087–0.089 as next magnet. Not base case today.

Bottom line

• Probabilistic path favors shorting a relief bounce into the 0.081–0.0825 supply zone, targeting a fade toward 0.075ish within the next 24 hours, with tail risk of a 0.073 sweep. Invalidated on a decisive reclaim of 0.086–0.088.