OM poised for a mean-reversion bounce off multi-touch support: targeting 0.076–0.078 within 24 hours

Comprehensive, step-by-step technical review (multi-timeframe)

1. Market regime and structure (daily)

• Primary trend: Strong multi-week downtrend since the 10/10 breakdown (0.165 -> 0.1068) followed by a sequence of lower highs/lows throughout Nov. Price fell from the late-Oct/early-Nov consolidation (~0.10–0.13) to the mid/low 0.07s. Structure remains bearish but short-term stretched.
• Current context: 12/01 close ~0.07284, probing a dense support pocket created 11/21–11/23 and 11/30 (0.07035–0.0735). Today’s intraday low 0.07152 sits just above the 11/21 swing low (0.07035). Buyers defended this zone multiple times, suggesting demand on dips.
• Key levels (daily): • Support: 0.07035 (11/21 low), then 0.067–0.065 (measured extension if 0.070 breaks).
  • Resistance: 0.0779 (11/30 close/pivot), 0.0815 (11/27 close & Fib), 0.0846 (11/28 high), 0.0873 (11/26 spike high).
• Volume regime: Post-11/26 spike (to 0.0873) volume has tapered. This often accompanies late-stage selloffs as supply dries up near support, favoring a mean-reversion bounce over the next 24h if support holds.

2. Moving averages and trend filters

• 5D SMA ≈ 0.0792; 10D SMA ≈ 0.0780; 20D SMA ≈ 0.0801. Price (~0.0728) is 5–9% below these means. That distance plus proximity to multi-touch support favors a short-term reversion attempt towards 0.076–0.078.
• 50D/200D (qualitative): Well above spot, confirming the primary downtrend. Any long bias is countertrend and should seek conservative targets (near short-term moving averages).
• EMA(9) daily (approx) ≈ 0.078; price below but near an area where snapbacks often test the 9–10D averages.

3. Momentum (RSI/MACD/Stoch)

• Daily RSI(14): Likely mid-30s to high-30s (oversold side of neutral) after multi-week bleed and today’s fresh probe of support. Historically conducive to reflexive bounces into the 40s.
• Daily MACD: Below zero with a shallow/flattening histogram. Negative but decelerating sell momentum near support hints at bounce risk.
• Hourly RSI: Pressed sub-40 during the day and recovered on the late-session bounce; mild bullish divergence versus earlier intraday lows (price retested, momentum less negative), supporting a 12–24h relief move.

4. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (20D): Mid ~0.0801, lower band estimated near 0.069–0.070. Spot sits just above the lower band. Typical outcome: either a tag/sweep of band then revert toward midband, or a drift under lower band in strong trends. Given repeated defense of 0.070–0.071, a modest revert toward 0.076–0.078 is higher probability in the next 24h unless 0.070 breaks decisively.
• ATR(14D): Roughly 0.004–0.006. A +0.0040–0.0050 up-leg from current fits the 24h volatility envelope (placing 0.076–0.078 within reach).

5. Fibonacci mapping

• From 11/28 swing high 0.08457 to today’s low 0.07152:
  • 38.2% ≈ 0.0763 • 50% ≈ 0.0780 • 61.8% ≈ 0.0797
  These retracement levels align with the 5–10D SMAs and recent supply (0.0779–0.0815). For a 24h horizon, the 38.2%–50% band (0.0763–0.0780) is a realistic magnet if support holds.

6. Intraday microstructure (12/01 hourly)

• Range ~0.07152–0.07380. The session produced a lower tail near 0.0715 and a late uptick to 0.0729, suggestive of a hammer-like character on low timeframes.
• Pivot math (for 12/02 session planning): Using 12/01 H/L/C (0.07380/0.07152/0.07284), pivot P ≈ 0.07272; R1 ≈ 0.07392; S1 ≈ 0.07164. A move above R1 opens 0.075–0.076 (gap to prior daily pivots), and momentum could carry toward the Fib 38.2% at ~0.0763.

7. Market profile / volume features

• Visible high-volume nodes in 0.079–0.082 from late Nov suggest thick overhead supply there. First acceptance tests should stall just below that belt. A fast pocket exists 0.075–0.076 where price has traversed quickly; this is a suitable 24h target zone before heavier supply engages.

8. Pattern recognition

• Potential local double-bottom/accumulation shelf: 0.0703 (11/21) vs 0.0715 (today). Not a confirmed double bottom yet, but higher low wicks around the same zone point to buyers stepping in.
• Descending channel since mid-Nov: Price at/near lower boundary; mean-reverting moves to the channel midline typically reach ~0.076–0.078 next day, consistent with Fib/MAs.

9. Risk framework and scenarios (next 24h)

• Base case (≈55%): Hold 0.071–0.072 area, grind up toward 0.076–0.077 (Fib 38.2%/10D SMA underside).
• Bear case (≈30%): Liquidity sweep under 0.07035 triggers stops, spike to 0.069–0.067, then reversal. This would invalidate a tight long until it reclaims 0.071.
• Bull extension (≈15%): Stronger squeeze through 0.078 toward 0.0797–0.0801 (61.8%/BB mid). Less likely in a single session given overhead supply.

10. Trade plan synthesis

• Edge source: Confluence of multi-touch support (0.070–0.072), proximity to BB lower band, oversold daily momentum, and intraday bullish divergence. Countertrend mean-reversion likely into 0.076–0.078 over 24h if 0.070 holds.
• Execution: Buy on a small dip into 0.0722–0.0724 (just above today’s VWAP zone and prior intraday balance).
• Target: 0.0768 (between Fib 38.2% and 50%, just below the 10D SMA and under obvious resistance to improve fill probability).
• Invalidation/stop (for risk control, not part of output fields): 0.0702 (beneath 11/21 low 0.07035), risking ~-2.9% for a ~+6.2% target (R:R ≈ 2.1:1).
• Contingency: If price impulsively breaks and holds above 0.0768 before entry, avoid chasing into supply; wait for a pullback toward 0.075–0.0755 for a second-chance entry with revised targets 0.0780/0.0795.

11. 24-hour price outlook

• Expected path: Early dip/testing 0.0722 ±0.0005, then a grind higher toward 0.0758–0.0768. Max extension risk-on: 0.0778–0.0783. Downside tail risk: a stop-sweep to 0.069–0.070 before reversing.

Bottom line: Short-term conditions favor a countertrend long for a mean-reversion bounce into layered resistance. Tight risk management is essential due to the dominant higher-timeframe downtrend and nearby liquidity under 0.070.