OM poised for a liquidity sweep: Fading rallies toward VWAP as price grinds to 0.072

Executive summary and 24h view

• Bias (next 24h): Bearish drift with risk of a liquidity sweep toward 0.073–0.0715. Any intraday bounces likely capped below 0.078–0.079.
• Optimal tactic: Fade upticks into resistance; short on retracements toward VWAP/20-SMA confluence. Take profits just above major daily supports to front‑run bids.
• Key levels: Resistance 0.0759–0.0766 (intraday supply/VWAP), 0.0777–0.0784 (pivot P/20‑SMA), 0.0815–0.0822 (daily supply/Fib). Support 0.0733 (S2 pivot), 0.0721–0.0727 (Nov 22/23 cluster), 0.0714 (S3 pivot), 0.07035 (Nov 21 low).

1. Trend and market structure (multi-timeframe)

• Daily structure: Since the Oct 10 breakdown (~0.1068) and subsequent lower highs, OM remains in a clear downtrend. A reactive rally peaked Nov 26 at 0.09809, then a sequence of lower highs (Nov 28 0.0851–0.0858 zone; Dec 3 ~0.07965) and lower lows resumed. Current close 0.07511 sits below the 20‑day SMA and well below the 50‑day trend reference, confirming bearish trend alignment.
• Intraday (hourly 12/4): Lower highs all session (0.0789→0.0787→0.0779→0.0772→0.0769→0.0764→0.0756→0.0752→0.0751). Price consistently trades under hourly VWAP; sellers control. Spike down to 0.07428 shows willingness to probe sub‑0.075 liquidity.
• Market structure signals: Descending triangle since Nov 26 with a gradually falling supply line and a horizontal demand base 0.072–0.074. Breakdown risk increases if 0.072 gives way; alternatively, descending triangles can produce “false breaks” then mean‑revert, but probabilities favor continuation in current context.

2. Moving averages (trend proxies)

• Daily SMA20 (approx) = 0.0784; price = 0.0751 (−4.2% below). SMA50 estimated near ~0.10–0.11 given the October prints; price far below = bearish higher‑timeframe bias. The slope of SMA20 is turning down after the Nov 26 pop faded, reinforcing near‑term downside.
• EMA stack (qualitative): EMA12 < EMA26 after rolling over from the Nov 26 rally; bearish alignment with widening gap the last 2–3 sessions. Pullbacks to EMA12/20 likely to be sold (supply near 0.078–0.079).

3. Momentum indicators

• RSI (14‑day, est): Low‑40s, reflecting bearish momentum without acute oversold. Room remains for a push to supports before any reflexive bounce. Hourly RSI hovering high‑30s/low‑40s intraday—downward momentum intact but not exhausted.
• Stochastic (qualitative): On the daily, oscillators cycling down from mid‑range; hourly near bear zone (<50), consistent with sell‑rallies regime.

4. MACD

• Daily MACD negative and below signal; histogram modestly negative—momentum isn’t capitulatory but remains in favor of sellers. On hourly, MACD below zero with minor attempts to flatten during small bounces—each sold swiftly, reflecting persistent intra‑session supply.

5. Volatility and envelopes

• ATR(14) daily (est): ~0.0048–0.0052. Normal day’s range of 6–7% supports a path to 0.073–0.072 on a routine push without requiring a shock.
• Bollinger Bands (20, 2σ): Mid ~0.0784; stdev ~0.0049; upper ~0.0876, lower ~0.069. Price currently below mid, inside lower half, not band‑riding yet; there’s still room to extend lower before hitting the lower band (~0.069) if momentum increases.
• Keltner Channels (EMA20 ± 1.5×ATR): Center ~0.078; lower ~0.070–0.071; price leaning to the lower envelope, consistent with a trend day bias rather than mean‑reversion the next 24h.

6. Volume, VWAP, and OBV

• Volume: Post‑Nov 26 spike (capitulation/exit liquidity), volumes have normalized and skewed lower during down days—typical grind‑down behavior. Today’s intraday volumes rose on down legs (e.g., sell impulse to 0.07428) and thinned on bounces—bearish volume asymmetry.
• VWAP (intraday): Approx 0.0763–0.0766 from today’s session distributions. Price finished under VWAP and struggled to reclaim—shorts favor fading reversion to VWAP.
• OBV (qualitative): Sideways‑down since late Nov, no accumulation signature. Favors supply‑dominant tape.

7. Support/resistance mapping and pivots

• Immediate resistances: 0.0759–0.0766 (today’s VWAP/micro supply), 0.0777–0.0784 (classic pivot P ~0.07774 + 20‑SMA confluence), 0.0802 (R1), 0.0822 (R2) where stronger sellers likely reload.
• Supports: 0.0752 intraday shelf; 0.0733 (S2 from Dec 3 calc); 0.0727/0.0721 (Nov 23/22 cluster, key); 0.0714 (S3); 0.07035 (Nov 21 low). Expect bids to defend 0.0721–0.0727 initially; a sweep through 0.072 could target 0.0714 quickly.
• Classic Pivots from Dec 3 (H=0.07965, L=0.07523, C=0.07833): P=0.07774, R1=0.08025, S1=0.07583, R2=0.08216, S2=0.07332, R3=0.08467, S3=0.07140. Current price sits below S1 and leaning toward S2/S3 path.

8. Fibonacci framework (Nov 21 low to Nov 26 high)

• Swing: Low 0.07354 → High 0.09809; range 0.02455.
• Key retracements: 61.8% = 0.08292; 78.6% = 0.07878; 100% = 0.07354. Price is below 78.6% and approaching a full round‑trip, signaling weak demand and increasing probability of a base retest/shallow undercut (0.0735→0.0720–0.0714 liquidity sweep) before any sustainable bounce.

9. Ichimoku perspective

• Price below Tenkan and Kijun; future cloud likely thin and below historical baseline post‑crash structure. Chikou span under price—full bearish stack. Pullbacks to Tenkan/Kijun (~0.076–0.078 area) are likely rejection zones.

10. Donchian channels and break structure

• 20‑day Donchian High/Low: ~0.0981 / ~0.0721. Price trades in the lower quartile; a daily close under ~0.072 raises breakdown risk towards 0.070–0.069. Until a reclaim of mid‑channel (~0.085) occurs, continuation bias remains down.

11. Pattern diagnostics and Wyckoff/Elliott context

• Post‑Nov 26 spike resembles a UTAD‑like event in a distributional range, followed by markdown. The subsequent sequence of lower highs/weak rallies indicates supply in control.
• Elliott (heuristic): From the Nov 26 high, a five‑wave decline count is plausible: 1) drop into Nov 27–28, 2) corrective bounce into Nov 28–29, 3) extended leg into Dec 1 (0.0730), 4) pullback to Dec 3 (0.0796), 5) current push lower (Dec 4). Wave 5 commonly undercuts wave‑3 lows; hence 0.0730–0.0715 target zone is consistent.

12. Mean reversion vs momentum

• Z‑score vs 20‑SMA ~ −0.7 to −0.9σ (est). Not extreme, which reduces the odds of an immediate strong reversion. Momentum regime likely persists in the next 24h with controlled, grind‑down price action toward supports.

13. Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (60%): Fade any uptick toward 0.0759–0.0766; roll over to 0.0733 first test, partial bounce, then probe 0.0721–0.0715. Close near 0.072–0.073.
• Bullish alt (25%): Strong reclaim of VWAP and pivot P (~0.0777–0.0780) squeezes to 0.079–0.0802 (R1). Without follow‑through above 0.0815, bears likely re‑engage; daily trend remains down.
• Bearish extension (15%): Swift break of 0.072 opens 0.0714 (S3) and possibly a stop‑run to ~0.0704–0.0698 before mean reversion bounce into end of window.

14. Trade plan specifics

• Strategy: Momentum‑fade short into resistance confluence.
• Entry rationale: 0.0759 aligns with intraday supply just under VWAP and below S1 pivot reclaim; attractive risk to reward given nearby invalidation.
• Profit target selection: 0.0721 sits at the high‑confidence daily demand cluster (Nov 22 pivot) and just above S3 probability path—front‑runs support to improve fill odds.
• Suggested (optional) risk parameters: Protective stop 0.0786–0.0788 (above intraday LH and 20‑SMA/Pivot P band). Risk ~0.0029; Reward ~0.0038—R:R ≈ 1:1.3. If anticipating a deeper push to 0.0714, R:R improves toward ~1:1.6, but base case favors conservative TP near the first major support.
• Contingency: If price fails to retrace to 0.0759 for entry, a market‑entry continuation short on a weak bounce to ≥0.0754 remains valid, but the preferred plan waits for the 0.0759 tag.

Conclusion The confluence of a persistent downtrend (MA stack), negative momentum (MACD/RSI), price under VWAP/pivots, proximity to but not yet at oversold extremes, and a descending‑triangle market structure supports a short‑bias for the next 24 hours. Expect tests of 0.0733 then 0.0721–0.0715. Fade rallies; take profits into the first strong demand band.