OM Stalls Under Supply: Bearish Continuation Setup Aiming for a Support Retest

OM (MANTRA) — 24h Technical Outlook (Daily + Intraday)

Current price: 0.0759798

1) Market structure & trend (multi-timeframe)

Daily structure (last ~3 months shown):

• From 0.12 (Oct) to the 0.065–0.070 zone (mid-Dec) OM established a clear primary downtrend (lower highs / lower lows).
• A sharp capitulation + rebound occurred on 2025-12-16 (low ~0.0647 → close ~0.0753) with very high volume, but follow-through failed and price reverted to range behavior.
• Early January printed a counter-trend rally into 0.08498 (Jan-06 high), then rolled over. Since then price has been compressing sideways-to-down with lower swing highs.

Near-term daily trend (last ~2–3 weeks):

• Peak/attempt: Jan-13 close ~0.08079 (high ~0.08190) on a volume spike.
• Then distribution: Jan-14 to Jan-15 saw heavy volume and a drop to 0.07477 close.
• Jan-16 to Jan-18: stabilization around 0.075–0.076.

Conclusion: primary trend remains bearish, near-term trend is range-bound with a bearish bias (price below key resistance band 0.0788–0.0810).

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2) Support / resistance mapping (price action)

Using repeated daily reactions + recent intraday pivots:

Immediate support (S):

• S1: 0.07525–0.07535 (intraday lows/opens; also the lower edge of today’s range)
• S2: 0.07475 (Jan-15 close; Jan-16 low ~0.07399 nearby)
• S3: 0.07335–0.07360 (Jan-15 low ~0.07337; breakdown trigger area)

Immediate resistance (R):

• R1: 0.07640–0.07653 (intraday spike and failure area)
• R2: 0.07719–0.07729 (today’s high ~0.07719; intraday supply)
• R3: 0.07884–0.08100 (Jan-14 close ~0.07884; Jan-05 close ~0.08101 = major overhead supply zone)

Key observation: price is currently mid-range, closer to support than to the major resistance band. However, repeated failures above ~0.0765–0.0773 keep upside capped.

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3) Volatility & range statistics (practical for next 24h)

Latest daily candle (2026-01-18):

• O ~0.07553 / H ~0.07719 / L ~0.07525 / C ~0.07598
• Daily range ≈ 0.00195 (~2.6% of price)

Intraday (hourly) behavior:

• Most hours show tight ranges with one expansion move around 10:00–12:00 (push to ~0.07729 then fade).
• This is consistent with low-trend, mean-reversion conditions.

Implication: next 24h is more likely to stay inside roughly 0.0736–0.0773 unless a volume shock appears.

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4) Momentum & moving-average logic (qualitative, from the series)

Even without computing exact MA values, the sequence implies:

• Since Jan-13/14 the market printed lower highs while holding ~0.075: momentum is weak.
• Price is well below the early-Jan swing zone (~0.081–0.085), suggesting longer MAs (e.g., 20D/50D) are likely overhead and acting as dynamic resistance.

Momentum read: neutral-to-bearish; rallies are being sold into.

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5) Volume & effort-vs-result

• Large volume events:
  • 2025-11-26 (huge spike) preceded a retrace (classic event-driven pump then distribution).
  • 2025-12-16/17 high volume reversal attempt, but no sustained uptrend.
  • 2026-01-13 to 01-16 very high volume during a drop from ~0.0808 to ~0.075–0.076 → suggests supply dominance.
• Today’s daily volume (~22.4M) is much lower than the distribution days (~90M). That often means drift/rotation, not strong accumulation.

Implication: absent fresh demand, price tends to revisit lower supports.

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6) Pattern recognition

• Descending/flat channel: highs stepping down (0.0819 → 0.0821 close area failed → 0.0791 → 0.0773 intraday). Lows are comparatively flat around 0.075–0.0739.
• This resembles a bearish continuation compression (descending triangle / weak base). These frequently resolve down unless broken with strong volume above the descending trendline.

Trigger levels:

• Bull invalidation: sustained acceptance above 0.0773 then 0.0788.
• Bear confirmation: breakdown and acceptance below 0.0736–0.07335.

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7) 24-hour forecast (probabilistic)

Given the bearish higher-timeframe + intraday mean reversion:

• Base case (55–60%): mild drift down / chop, probing 0.0753 and possibly 0.0748, then small bounce.
• Bear case (25–30%): loss of 0.0736–0.07335 → quick move to 0.0720–0.0715 (prior support cluster early Dec).
• Bull case (10–15%): reclaim 0.0773, squeeze toward 0.0788; still likely capped below 0.081 without a major volume catalyst.

Net: slightly bearish expectation over next 24h.

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Trade Plan (24h)

Decision: Sell (Short Position)

Rationale: primary trend down, repeated supply near 0.0765–0.0773, distribution volume in mid-Jan, and current consolidation that statistically favors a downside probe.

Optimal open (entry) price

For a better risk/reward than shorting mid-range, the higher-probability entry is a pullback into resistance:

• Open (Short): 0.07680 (inside the 0.0764–0.0773 supply band, below the day’s high to improve fill odds)

Target / close (take profit)

• Close (TP): 0.07480 (near Jan-15 close support; realistic within a ~1 daily range move)

(If price never retraces to ~0.0768 and instead breaks below ~0.07525, a momentum-short would be different; but per your request, the “optimal” open is at resistance rather than chasing.)