OM Breaks the $0.047 Floor: Retest-to-Short Setup With Bearish 24H Continuation Risk

24H Technical Outlook — MANTRA (OM)

Current price: $0.04207 (as of 2026-02-05 22:00 UTC)

1) Multi-timeframe structure (trend + market phase)

Daily trend (Nov → now):

• OM has been in a persistent downtrend since the Nov highs (~$0.10). The chart shows a sequence of lower highs and lower lows.
• Key breakdown leg: mid-Jan ($0.08) to late-Jan/early-Feb lows ($0.05 → $0.0477).
• Today printed a major continuation drop with a large daily range: roughly $0.04866 high → $0.04182 low, closing near $0.04207. That is a decisive bearish day (close far below the open and near the lows).

Intraday (hourly) trend (last ~24h):

• Price was range-bound around $0.047–0.048 during early hours, then impulsively broke down around 15:00–20:00 with heavy activity (notably at 20:00 and 21:00 volumes).
• After the dump, price is attempting a small bounce to $0.042–0.043, but structure remains bearish (post-breakdown retest behavior).

Market phase read: distribution → markdown; the latest move looks like a breakdown from a base (the $0.047–0.048 shelf) into a lower range.

2) Support/Resistance mapping (horizontal + swing levels)

Using visible pivots from the dataset:

Immediate supports

• $0.0418: today’s intraday low (and current local “line in the sand”). If this breaks, downside can accelerate.
• $0.0400: psychological round level; likely attracts liquidity.

Immediate resistances (sell zones)

• $0.0437–0.0448: prior intraday consolidation and bounce attempts (18:00–19:00 and 16:00 close region). This is the first supply zone.
• $0.0462–0.0466: prior intraday support before breakdown (11:00–12:00 area). Classic “support becomes resistance.”
• $0.0478–0.0484: breakdown shelf / prior range top (earlier in the day). Strong resistance if retested.

3) Candlestick + price action signals

Daily candle (latest):

• Large bearish body with expansion in range and close near the lower portion → indicates strong sellers and weak dip-buying.

Hourly pattern:

• Clear range → breakdown → weak bounce.
• The 20:00 hour shows a sharp push to $0.04182 with very high volume, followed by a partial rebound. This often creates a bearish retest setup: price bounces into prior support (now resistance) and then sells off again.

4) Volatility and range expectations (ATR-style reasoning)

• Today’s intraday high-low is ~$0.00684 (~16% of price), signaling elevated volatility.
• In such regimes, mean reversion bounces occur, but trend continuation usually dominates unless price reclaims the broken shelf ($0.047+).
• For next 24h, a plausible trading range is $0.0395–0.0450 with a bearish skew.

5) Volume / effort-vs-result

• Daily volume today: ~28.4M, consistent with “capitulation-like” activity compared to recent days (~20–27M).
• Heavy volume during the breakdown suggests institutional/large seller presence or forced selling.
• The rebound off $0.0418 did not reclaim key broken levels ($0.046+), implying weak demand follow-through.

6) Trend-following indicator implications (qualitative)

(Exact MA/RSI/MACD values aren’t computed here, but the implications from the closes are strong.)

• Moving averages: Price is far below early-Jan levels ($0.08) and below the entire late-Jan distribution region ($0.06). This strongly implies price is below key MAs (20/50/100) → bearish regime.
• Momentum (RSI-like): Consecutive declines and today’s strong sell candle suggest oversold conditions, which can produce bounces; however, oversold in a downtrend often leads to bear flags rather than reversal.
• MACD-like: Persistent negative slope since mid-Jan implies bearish momentum remains dominant.

7) Pattern-based thesis (breakdown + retest)

• The $0.047–0.048 area acted as a short-term balance zone; price broke down aggressively.
• Probable next 24h path:
  1. Retest into $0.0437–$0.0448 (sometimes up to $0.0462), then
  2. Continuation lower, attempting to take out $0.0418 and probe toward $0.0400.

8) 24-hour forecast (probabilistic)

Base case (higher probability): bearish continuation

• Expect attempts to bounce, but sellers defend $0.044–0.046.
• Likely revisit $0.0418; if broken, next magnet is $0.0400 and potentially $0.039–0.0385 on momentum.

Alternate case (lower probability): relief rally

• If price reclaims and holds $0.0466, the move could extend to $0.0478–0.0484 (breakdown origin). But given the strength of the dump, this would more likely be a corrective rally than a true reversal.

9) Trade decision logic (Buy vs Sell)

• Dominant factors: strong downtrend (daily), breakdown with heavy volume (hourly), failure to reclaim key resistances.
• Counter-factor: oversold bounce risk, but that favors waiting for a better short entry (higher), not buying.

Conclusion: Bias remains SELL (short) for the next 24 hours, using a retest entry.

---

Suggested levels (entry/target)

Optimal open (short entry): $0.04460

• Rationale: inside the first meaningful supply zone ($0.0437–$0.0448), improving R:R vs shorting at $0.042.

Take-profit / close price: $0.04020

• Rationale: just above the psychological $0.0400 support to increase fill probability; aligns with continuation expectation after retesting lows.

(If price never retests $0.0446 and keeps dropping, the plan avoids chasing—consistent with disciplined shorting in high volatility.)