Prediction

BEARISH

Target

$0.0576

Estimated

Model

trdz-T52k

Date

2026-02-16

22:00

Analyzed

MANTRA Price Analysis Powered by AI

OM (MANTRA) After the Spike: Liquidity Sweep at $0.067 and a High-Volatility Fade Setup

Market snapshot (OM)

Current price: $0.06219
Context (daily): Strong downtrend from early Jan highs (~$0.083–0.085) into early Feb capitulation low $0.0382 (Feb 6), then a violent reversal / short-squeeze with a spike day Feb 13 high $0.06928 on extreme volume.
Last daily candle (Feb 16 so far): O $0.05910 / H $0.06566 / L $0.05820 / C $0.06219 → higher close vs open, but still inside the post-spike distribution range.

1) Trend & structure (Dow / market structure)

Daily structure

Primary trend (since Jan 6): Lower highs and lower lows into Feb 6 → bearish.
Reversal attempt: Feb 6 low ($0.0382) → Feb 13–14 spike to ~$0.069 → this is a counter-trend rally that has not yet reclaimed prior distribution zone around $0.073–0.075 (late Dec support turned resistance).
Key swing levels:
- Resistance: $0.0657 (today’s high), then $0.0682–0.0694 (Feb 14 high zone), then $0.0729–0.0750 (major prior support/resistance band)
- Support: $0.0608–0.0610 (intraday base), then $0.0582 (today’s low), then $0.0562 (Feb 15 low), then $0.0500 (psych/support)

Intraday (hourly) structure

Notable impulse at 18:00: $0.0594 → $0.0673 peak, then immediate dump to ~$0.0609 the next hour. This is classic stop-run / liquidity grab behavior.
Price recovered back to ~$0.0622, suggesting buyers defending above ~$0.061, but the sharp rejection from $0.067+ indicates overhead supply.

Structure conclusion: Market is in a post-news/post-squeeze mean-reversion phase: bullish bounces exist, but rallies into $0.065–0.069 are being sold.

2) Momentum (RSI-style inference) & rate of change

(Exact RSI not computed from every bar here, but we can infer momentum regime from sequence and candle behavior.)

The move from $0.0419 → $0.0693 in ~1–2 days implies a momentum blow-off (RSI likely >70 on spike).
Since Feb 14–16, closes are choppy and slightly lower vs the spike high → typical of momentum cooling and distribution.

Momentum conclusion: Upside momentum is decelerating; odds favor range/trend-down drift unless $0.0657 is reclaimed with follow-through.

3) Volatility (ATR-style inference) & candle ranges

Daily ranges expanded massively on Feb 13–16 (high-low spanning ~20–50% on the spike days).
Today: H-L ≈ $0.00746 (~12% of price) → still high volatility.

Volatility conclusion: With elevated ATR, price is likely to swing widely; directional conviction should be traded around key levels (support/resistance) rather than mid-range.

4) Volume & participation

Feb 13 volume: 219.7M (extreme) followed by Feb 14: 148.0M, then decaying to Feb 15: 83.4M, Feb 16: 71.8M.
That pattern (volume climax → fading) often marks temporary tops or at least a pause after a squeeze.

Volume conclusion: The spike likely attracted late buyers; subsequent lower volume suggests less marginal demand to keep pushing higher.

5) Support/Resistance mapping (horizontal + supply/demand zones)

Demand zone (buyers likely)

$0.0608–0.0610: repeatedly revisited intraday (19:00–20:00 hour) and held.
$0.0582–0.0587: today’s low + earlier hourly base.

Supply zone (sellers likely)

$0.0655–0.0673: today’s rejection + stop-run high.
$0.0682–0.0694: major spike highs (Feb 14)

S/R conclusion: Current price ($0.0622) sits between clear supply and demand, but closer to demand than to the upper supply ceiling.

6) Pattern recognition

Blow-off spike + retrace: Feb 13–14 resembles an exhaustion move.
Bull flag? Not clean; the post-spike consolidation is not a tight downward channel with decreasing volatility—rather it is wide, choppy, suggesting distribution.
Liquidity sweep behavior: Hourly spike to $0.0673 and immediate reversal is typical of bull trap / stop hunting.

Pattern conclusion: Higher probability of fade rallies than a clean breakout continuation.

7) Fibonacci (anchored to recent swing)

Using Feb 6 low $0.0382 → Feb 14 high $0.0694:

38.2% retrace ≈ $0.0575
50% retrace ≈ $0.0538
61.8% retrace ≈ $0.0501 Price at $0.0622 is above the 38.2% level, but if $0.060–0.058 fails, the fib map points to $0.0575, then potentially $0.0538.

8) 24-hour forward view (probabilistic)

Base case (most likely):

Range with bearish bias as supply remains heavy above $0.065–0.067.
Expect retests of $0.0608 and possibly $0.0585–0.0575.

Bull case (less likely):

Sustained hold above $0.061 and break/reclaim of $0.0657, then a push toward $0.0682–0.0694.

Bear case (tail risk but plausible in high ATR):

Break below $0.0582, acceleration to $0.0575, then $0.0538.

Net: Near-term edge favors shorting into resistance rather than buying mid-range.

Trade decision (24h): Sell (Short Position)

Rationale:

Post-squeeze distribution signs: volume climax followed by fading volume.
Clear intraday rejection from $0.0673 (liquidity sweep) with fast mean reversion.
Price is below major resistance band ($0.068–0.069) and well below prior larger resistance ($0.073–0.075).

Optimal open (entry)

Best risk/reward is not at $0.0622 mid-zone; prefer a limit short into supply.
Open Price (short): $0.06560 (near today’s upper rejection zone, below the spike top to improve fill probability).

Target (take-profit / close)

First meaningful demand sits around $0.058–0.0575.
Close Price (take profit): $0.05760 (near the 38.2% fib retrace and just above deeper support, aiming to get filled before bounce buyers).

(If price never retraces to the open price, no trade triggers—this is intentional to avoid low-quality mid-range entries.)