MANTRA Price Analysis Powered by AI

OM Bull-Trap Rejection: Breakdown Risk Signals a 24H Retest Toward the $0.063 Support Cluster

Market snapshot (OM)

Current price: $0.064741
Timeframe provided: Daily candles from 2025-11-26 → 2026-02-23, plus intraday 1H for 2026-02-23.
Regime: Downtrend since early January, with a high-volatility pump mid-February and subsequent distribution.

1) Multi-timeframe trend + structure

Daily market structure (swing analysis)

Early January marked a local peak area around $0.084–0.085 (Jan 6).
From Jan 13–16 there was heavy volume and then a breakdown, followed by a capitulation leg into early February:
- Jan 29 close: $0.05946
- Jan 31 close: $0.05060
- Feb 5 low: ~$0.04174
Mid-February produced an explosive rally (classic short squeeze / news impulse type candle):
- Feb 13 high: ~$0.06928 with massive volume (219M)
- Follow-through on Feb 14 high: ~$0.06938
- Then failure to hold gains and choppy distribution.
Most recent sessions show lower highs after the bounce:
- Feb 20 close: $0.06767
- Feb 22 close: $0.06945 (attempted breakout)
- Feb 23 close: $0.06474 (sharp rejection)

Conclusion (daily structure): The dominant structure remains bearish / corrective, with price failing to reclaim prior supply and returning toward the lower part of the recent range.

Intraday (1H) structure on Feb 23

Session started near $0.0695 and trended down with a series of lower highs and lower lows.
Late-day acceleration broke through ~$0.066 and probed down to ~$0.06417.
Final hours show only a minor stabilization near $0.0642–0.0648 (weak bounce, no strong reversal pattern).

Conclusion (1H structure): Short-term momentum is bearish, with sellers controlling the tape.

2) Support / resistance mapping (price action)

Key resistances (supply)

$0.0690–0.0702: Prior breakout attempt zone (Feb 19 close $0.07021; Feb 22 close $0.06945). Today’s rejection from that area strengthens it as supply.
$0.0674–0.0689: Intraday distribution band (multiple 1H closes and highs in this zone earlier today).
$0.0750: Swing supply (Feb 20 high ~$0.07503). Not likely reachable in 24h without strong catalyst.

Key supports (demand)

$0.0642–0.0647: Today’s breakdown base and current price area.
$0.0622–0.0632: Prior daily support (Jan 25 low ~0.06221; multiple late-Jan closes ~0.063–0.065).
$0.0600–0.0594: Higher-timeframe demand (Feb 17 close $0.06015; Jan 29 close $0.05946).

Support implication: If $0.0642 fails on continued risk-off flow, the next magnet is $0.062–0.063.

3) Volatility + range statistics (practical trading view)

Latest daily candle (Feb 23) shows high-to-low ~ $0.06980 → $0.06417 (~8%+ intraday range), signaling elevated volatility.
Elevated volatility after a failed breakout typically increases probability of:
- Continuation downward (breakout failure → return to mean / prior support), or
- Range expansion with another leg lower before stabilizing.

Implication for next 24h: Expect wide swings; directional edge favors downside unless price reclaims prior breakdown levels quickly.

4) Volume & “effort vs result”

The largest volumes occurred on:
- Feb 13–14 (pump)
- Feb 19–20 (renewed spike + follow-through)
Despite high volume, price has not established a durable uptrend; instead, it’s producing distribution-like behavior (big volume up, then inability to hold, followed by sharp rejection days).

Effort vs result read: Buyers expended large effort but did not convert it into sustained higher closes; that often precedes mean reversion lower.

5) Candlestick / pattern read

Daily pattern

Feb 22 → Feb 23 resembles a bull trap / failed breakout: price was accepted near $0.069–0.070 then sold down hard.
The Feb 23 candle body is large and closes near the low region → bearish close.

Intraday pattern

Persistent lower highs; no clear base/accumulation (no strong V-reversal, no higher-low sequence yet).

Pattern implication: Near-term probability favors another test of lower supports before any meaningful rebound.

6) Fibonacci mean-reversion framing (swing-based)

Using the mid-Feb swing low ~0.0554 (Feb 19 low) to high ~0.0750 (Feb 20 high):

38.2% retrace ≈ 0.0675 (already lost intraday)
61.8% retrace ≈ 0.0629 (aligns with the 0.062–0.063 support cluster)

Fib confluence: The 0.0628–0.0632 zone is a strong mean-reversion target if weakness persists.

7) Probabilistic 24h outlook (scenario tree)

Base case (higher probability): continuation to test lower support

Price remains below 0.066–0.067 and drifts/flushes to 0.0628–0.0635.
From there, a reaction bounce is plausible, but not guaranteed.

Bull alternative (lower probability): reclaim breakdown level and range back up

Price reclaims 0.0668–0.0675 with acceptance (multiple closes above), opening room to 0.0689–0.0700.
Given today’s sell impulse, this requires strong buying flow; not the favored scenario.

Net bias (24h): Bearish to neutral-bearish, with downside test more likely than immediate recovery.

Trade plan logic (why short here)

Trend: Daily still in corrective/downtrend; 1H is clearly bearish.
Level: Current price sits under a broken intraday support region (~0.066–0.067), which often becomes resistance.
Targets: Multiple confluences sit below (prior daily base + fib 61.8%).
Invalidation concept: If price reclaims and holds above ~0.0675–0.0690, the short thesis weakens.

Forecast (next 24 hours)

Expected move: Downward drift / retest toward $0.063; possible wick into $0.062 if volatility expands.
Expected 24h range (rough): $0.0625 – $0.0680 (skewed to the downside).

Note: This is a technical, probability-based view; crypto remains headline/liquidity sensitive.