ONDO coiling above Tenkan: Bull flag poised to break toward 1.06–1.08 within 24 hours

Executive summary

• Bias: Moderately bullish over the next 24 hours with a buy-the-dip setup near 1.018–1.022 and upside toward 1.06–1.08 if resistance breaks. Trend remains up on the daily timeframe; current action looks like a bull flag/triangle consolidation after a strong breakout.
• Key levels: Support 1.019–1.021 (Tenkan / intraday demand), 1.006–1.010 (S1/pysch 1.00), 0.997 (Kijun / 50% Fib), 0.965 (61.8% Fib). Resistance 1.033–1.047 (intraday supply), 1.062 (R2), 1.075–1.08 (prior supply), 1.10–1.12 (major).
• Plan: Buy pullback at ~1.018 (limit). Target 1.062 in 24h. Invalidation below ~0.996 (mentioned for risk context).

Data and context

• Current price: 1.0215.
• Timeframe coverage: Daily candles from 2025-06-19 to 2025-09-16; intraday (hourly) for 2025-09-15/16.
• Recent regime: Powerful surge Sep 10–12 to 1.1325 high, followed by a controlled pullback on easing volume.

Trend and structure

• Daily market structure: Higher highs and higher lows from Sep 1 low (0.861). Pullback from 1.1325 has so far retraced into the 38.2–50% Fib zone, typical of a wave-4/bull-flag digestion without breaking the larger uptrend. The current low (1.0117) remains well above the key swing low (0.953–0.96 zone from Sep 2–3).
• Intraday structure (hourly): Since today’s high near 1.047, we’ve printed lower highs (1.047 → 1.045 → 1.036) and higher lows (1.012 → 1.017 → 1.020), compressing into a symmetrical triangle. With the dominant daily trend up, odds favor upside resolution.

Moving averages

• SMA(20) ≈ 0.967 (approx from last 20 closes). Price above SMA20: bullish intermediate bias.
• SMA(50) (approx): ~0.99–1.00 given recent regime. Price above SMA50: confirms trend strength.
• Slope: Short and medium MAs are rising; pullback hasn’t violated the trend backbone.

Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) daily ≈ 61 (derived from 14-period gains/losses). This is bullish but cooling from overbought; suggests room for another push before any deeper mean reversion.
• Stochastic daily: Likely mid-range with a recent down cross, consistent with consolidation within an uptrend; watch for a bullish re-cross on an hourly breakout.
• MACD daily: Above zero after the Sep 10 breakout; histogram has been contracting (loss of upside momentum) but no confirmed bear cross at the zero line. Interpreted as a healthy pause rather than trend failure.

Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) daily (approx): ~0.06–0.07. Expect 24h realized range of roughly ±0.03–0.04 around VWAP in consolidation unless a breakout occurs.
• Bollinger Bands(20,2): Mid-band ≈ SMA20 ≈ 0.967; estimated upper ~1.10–1.11, lower ~0.83–0.84. Price sits in the upper half, nowhere near overbought extremes. Bandwidth has begun to contract after the expansion — a precondition for the next impulse.

Ichimoku

• Tenkan (9-period mid) ≈ 1.019 (using recent H/L). Current price marginally above Tenkan: immediate support.
• Kijun (26-period mid) ≈ 0.997. Price above Kijun: trend-positive.
• Cloud (projected): Senkou A ≈ (Tenkan+Kijun)/2 ≈ 1.008–1.01; Senkou B (52-period mid) estimated ~0.98–0.99. Price above the cloud: bullish regime intact. Chikou span should be above price, consistent with trend.

Fibonacci map (Sep 1 low 0.8614 to Sep 12 high 1.1325)

• 23.6%: ~1.069 (tested and failed to hold on 9/14–9/15).
• 38.2%: ~1.0289 (we are slightly below/around it).
• 50%: ~0.9969 (confluent with Kijun and psychological 1.00).
• 61.8%: ~0.9649 (next deeper dip if 1.00 breaks). Current location between 38.2% and 50% argues for dip-buying with defined risk.

Support and resistance (confluence)

• Immediate support: 1.019–1.022 (Tenkan, intraday bids), 1.006–1.010 (S1, round 1.00), 0.996–0.997 (Kijun + 50% Fib).
• Immediate resistance: 1.033–1.047 (intraday supply shelf and today’s lower-high band), 1.062 (pivot R2), 1.075–1.08 (9/11 supply), 1.10–1.12 (major supply; 9/12 high 1.1325 beyond near-term scope).

Volume and flows

• Volume profile: Breakout day (Sep 10) was very high; pullback volume has been diminishing (Sep 15 ~216M; today so far ~154M), typical of a bullish consolidation. Suggests sellers are passive; OBV likely remains in an uptrend.
• Intraday VWAP (today): Likely around 1.03–1.04 given early-session strength; current price below VWAP indicates slight intraday pressure, but as price bases near Tenkan, a reclaim of VWAP would signal breakout initiation.

Pattern recognition

• Bull flag / descending channel on daily after a vertical leg from ~0.95 to ~1.13. Flag lows hold above the 50% retrace; measured-move potential remains open.
• Hourly symmetrical triangle forming into the US close, often resolves with a directional push in the next session; with the dominant trend up and support holding, bias is for upside resolution.

Classical pivots for next session (based on today’s approx H/L/C: 1.047/1.0117/1.0215)

• Pivot P ≈ 1.0267; current price slightly below P.
• R1 ≈ 1.0417; R2 ≈ 1.0620; R3 ≈ 1.0770.
• S1 ≈ 1.0065; S2 ≈ 0.9915. These align well with confluence zones identified.

Wyckoff/Elliott perspective

• Wyckoff: After a sign-of-strength (SOS) on Sep 10–12, we’re seeing a low-volume back-up to the edge of the creek (BU/LPS) around 1.02–1.03. Expect an attempt to mark-up if demand reasserts above 1.04–1.05.
• Elliott: Reasonable count shows wave 3 peak on Sep 12, current wave 4 triangle/flat into 38.2–50% retrace, implying a potential wave 5 push targeting the 1.12–1.16 area later; near term, 1.06–1.08 is the first objective.

Risk management and scenarios (24h)

• Base case (60%): Hold 1.01–1.02, reclaim pivot 1.027, break 1.042–1.047 to tag 1.062 (R2). Close near 1.06.
• Pullback scenario (30%): Brief sweep into 1.006–1.010 (S1/round number) or even a stop-run toward 0.997 (Kijun/50% Fib), then sharp reversal; this would still be a buy zone for responsive traders.
• Breakdown (10%): Daily close below ~0.996 opens 0.965 (61.8% Fib) quickly; that would negate the 24h long bias and delay the bullish continuation.

Trading plan (tactical)

• Entry: Buy limit around 1.018 (just above Tenkan and near today’s demand). If momentum breakout preferred, alternate entry on 1.047–1.050 reclaim; however, pullback entry offers better R:R.
• Stop (context only): ~0.988 (≈0.03 below entry; ~0.5 ATR) to protect against a breakdown of 1.00 and Kijun; not part of the required output but essential for risk control.
• Take profit (24h): 1.062 (pivot R2/confluence before 1.075 supply). Optional stretch: 1.075–1.08 if momentum accelerates.
• R:R (context): From 1.018 → TP 1.062 = +0.044; to stop 0.988 = −0.030; R:R ≈ 1.47:1, acceptable for a 24h tactical trade given the trend context.

Catalysts and caveats

• If broader crypto market (e.g., BTC) sells off, ONDO likely tests 1.00/0.997 quickly.
• A firm hourly close above 1.047 would validate the triangle breakout and improve odds of tagging 1.062–1.075 in the session.

Conclusion

• The combination of: price above SMA20/SMA50 and cloud, RSI ~61 cooling but healthy, MACD > 0, Tenkan/Kijun support at 1.02/1.00, Fibonacci confluence (38.2–50%), diminishing pullback volume, and an hourly triangle favors a constructive long. Buy dips near 1.018 with a 24h objective at 1.062.