ONDO is coiling on a golden-pocket retest — looking for a 1.07+ squeeze within 24 hours

Summary view

• Bias next 24h: Moderately bullish (buy-the-dip) with an expected range of ~1.015–1.078 and a tilt toward a retest of 1.06–1.08.
• Rationale: Confluence of supports at 1.02–1.04 (Fibonacci 50–61.8% of the 9/10–9/12 leg, 38.2% of the 8/25–9/12 leg), declining-volume pullback into the 20D mean, rising OBV since 9/10, price above daily Kumo and key moving averages. Hourly shows a flag-like digestion after a strong impulse.

1. Multi-timeframe market structure

• Daily trend: Uptrend from late August. Higher highs from 0.89 (8/25) -> 1.1325 (9/12). Current pullback is the first meaningful retracement after breakout.
• Range context (Aug–Sep): August formed a 0.89–1.09 value area. On 9/10 a high-volume expansion carried price into a higher value area (1.02–1.12). Current price (≈1.036) is mid-to-lower of that newer area, near former resistance-turned-support.
• Recent sequence (last 6 sessions): 1.023 -> 1.079 -> 1.102 -> 1.091 -> 1.050 -> 1.036 -> 1.021 (9/16 close), then intraday 9/17 popped to 1.055 before settling back to ~1.036. That is a standard A–B–C dip retracing the breakout, then a first bounce with a minor fade.
• Hourly (9/17): Impulsive upmove from ~1.005 to 1.055 (19:00–20:00 UTC), then a controlled pullback toward 1.036 without breaking the prior higher low (~1.005). The structure resembles a small bull flag / ascending accumulation.

2. Key support and resistance levels

• Supports:
  • 1.022–1.044: Fibonacci confluence (see below), intraday demand from 9/17 bounce, and late-July/early-August pivot congestion around 1.03–1.04.
  • 1.012: 50% retrace of the 8/25–9/12 advance; 9/15/9/16 intraday lows are close.
  • 0.995–1.000: psychological and 20–50D MA cluster zone (approx.).
• Resistances:
  • 1.055–1.06: today’s intraday high cluster.
  • 1.075–1.10: pre-breakout shelf and local supply from 9/13–9/12.
  • 1.12–1.13: prior swing highs (9/12), major supply overhead.

3. Fibonacci mapping (confluence)

• 9/10 low (0.9537) -> 9/12 high (1.1325): range = 0.1788
  • 38.2%: 1.0642
  • 50%: 1.0431
  • 61.8%: 1.0220 Current ≈1.036 sits between the 50% and 61.8% “golden pocket” support.
• 8/25 low (0.8929) -> 9/12 high (1.1325): range = 0.2396
  • 38.2%: 1.0409
  • 50%: 1.0127
  • 61.8%: 0.9843 Confluence: 1.04 (38.2% of larger leg) aligns with 1.043 (50% of smaller leg). Price is testing that confluence.

4. Moving averages and trend readings (daily)

• 20D SMA: estimated ~0.99–1.01. Price is marginally above/near the mid-band, characteristic of a healthy pullback to the mean within an uptrend.
• 50D SMA: estimated ~0.96–0.98; slope positive. Price trades above it.
• EMAs (12/26): Short EMAs still above long EMAs post-breakout; compression suggests momentum reset rather than a trend reversal.
• ADX (14): likely climbing into low-to-mid 20s after the 9/10/9/12 expansion, indicating a developing trend with room to strengthen.

5. Momentum

• RSI (14D): Approx ~62 using the last 14 closes. Bull range behavior (40–80) with ample room to re-accelerate before overbought.
• MACD (12,26,9): Histogram likely contracted toward zero during the pullback; signal above zero from the recent burst suggests the pullback is a reset. A turn-up from near-zero on daily often precedes another push.
• Stochastics (qualitative): Rolling out of elevated territory and now in mid-zone, consistent with a buy-the-dip rhythm.

6. Volatility and mean reversion

• ATR (14D): Est. ~0.055–0.070. With current at ~1.036, a +1 ATR move targets ~1.09–1.106; a conservative half-ATR rebound points to ~1.06–1.07, matching nearby resistance. That aligns with a 24h objective under normal volatility.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Bands expanded on the breakout; price has reverted toward the mid-band (≈20SMA). Pullbacks to the middle band in uptrends are often buyable; upside mean-reversion toward the upper band typically follows if trend persists.

7. Volume and flow

• Volume surge days: 9/10 (432M), 9/11–9/12 elevated. Pullback days 9/14–9/16 show waning volume—constructive for bulls (sellers lack aggressive follow-through).
• OBV: Rising since 9/10. No clear distribution signature on the retrace.
• Intraday 9/17: Large up-volume bar at 19:00–20:00 followed by lighter-volume drift down—textbook bull-flag structure.

8. Ichimoku (daily, approximate)

• Price above Kumo; Senkou A > Senkou B. Bullish cloud with supportive forward span.
• Tenkan (~1.019) and Kijun (~1.020) are below current price; pullback respected them.
• Chikou span above price/history—bullish confirmation. Implication: Trend intact; pullback to Tenkan/Kijun zone delivered a reaction.

9. Intraday (hourly) tactical picture

• The 19:00–20:00 impulse established 1.055 as immediate supply; the subsequent fade to ~1.036 did not break prior higher low (~1.005), preserving bullish structure.
• Hourly RSI likely hovered mid-40s to low-50s into the close—neutral/mildly bullish zone with room to expand.
• Expectation: A base above 1.03 followed by attempts to re-challenge 1.055–1.06. A clean break targets 1.07–1.08 liquidity.

10. Pattern diagnostics

• Bull flag / falling channel on the intraday pullback post-1.055 spike.
• Daily A–B–C correction into a Fibonacci confluence and 20D mean.
• No confirmed topping structure (no lower low on daily; no distribution spike) yet.

11. Liquidity, orderbook intuition, and risk nodes

• Likely stop clusters: Sub-1.022 (61.8% from 9/10 leg) and around 1.012 (50% from the larger leg). These levels may be swept in a volatility spike before reversal; hence entries near 1.03–1.034 are favored to preempt a full sweep.
• Overhead liquidity: 1.055–1.06 (today’s high), then 1.075–1.10. Expect profit-taking in 1.07–1.08 on first test.

12. Event risk and regime

• The 9/17 spike volume suggests macro headlines (e.g., central bank/Fed day). Post-event sessions often exhibit mean reversion then trend continuation. Expect choppy but upwardly biased trade as liquidity normalizes.

13. Cross-method synthesis and probabilities

• Trend tools (MAs, Ichimoku, ADX): Bullish.
• Momentum (RSI/MACD): Reset within uptrend; poised to curl higher.
• Volatility (ATR/BB): Pullback to mid-band; room for a one-half to full ATR upside swing.
• Price action/Fibs: Sitting on multi-leg confluence support (50–61.8%)—high-probability reaction zone.
• Volume/OBV: Accumulation bias; pullback on lighter volume.
• Net: 60–65% probability of upside resolution to 1.06–1.08 in next 24h; 25–30% probability of a stop-run to ~1.02–1.01 before reversing; 10–15% probability of a deeper break sub-1.00.

14. Trade plan (tactical)

• Bias: Buy-the-dip.
• Entry: 1.033 limit (inside the 1.03–1.04 demand and just above 50% fib of the 9/10–9/12 leg). Current ≈1.036; aim to capture a minor liquidity dip.
• Take profit (24h objective): 1.074 (just below 1.075–1.08 resistance cluster to improve fill probability on the first test).
• Optional risk control (not part of order schema): Stop ~1.018 (below 61.8% fib and local shelf). R:R ≈ (1.074–1.033)/(1.033–1.018) ≈ 0.041/0.015 ≈ 2.7:1.
• Contingency: If price impulsively reclaims >1.056 before entry, consider a momentum add-on only on a pullback to 1.048–1.050; otherwise avoid chasing.

Expected path next 24h

• Base above 1.03 -> probe 1.055 -> first resistance -> shallow pullback -> extension into 1.07–1.08. Failure path: quick stop-run to 1.02–1.01 followed by reversal; deeper failure only on sustained acceptance below 1.00.