ONDO: Fade the Bounce — Short the 0.94–0.95 Supply, Target the 0.90 Handle

ONDO price action audit (as of 2025-09-22 21:00 UTC)

1. Market structure and trend (multi-timeframe)

• Daily structure: A lower-high, lower-low sequence has developed after the Sept 12 swing high at ~1.1325. Subsequent highs: ~1.091 (Sep 13–14), ~1.079 (Sep 18), ~1.023 (Sep 21). Lows stepped down from ~0.991 (Sep 21) to today’s intraday low ~0.916. This is a short-term downtrend within a broader multi-month range (0.88–1.17).
• 4H/1H structure: Since Sept 19–20, price rides a descending channel; today swept liquidity to 0.916, then weak bounce to 0.93–0.94 and re-compression. Supply is capping rallies below 0.95.
• Key takeaway: Momentum is bearish near-term; price is pressing into known support (0.90–0.92) with weak bounces—classic “sell-the-rip” conditions for the next 24 hours.

2. Key levels (derived from the provided history)

• Support: 0.90–0.92 (Aug 28–Sep 9 pivots; today’s 0.9159 sweep), 0.88 (Aug 31–Sep 1 zone), 0.861 (Sep 1 spike low – tail risk).
• Resistance: 0.94–0.95 (hourly supply and prior S3 pivot confluence), 0.966 (23.6% retrace of 1.1325→0.9159), 0.998–1.003 (38.2% retrace/mid-term pivot), 1.02–1.05 (heavy daily supply cluster).
• Intraday reference: Today’s session VWAP proxy ~0.932–0.935 (approx.; price mostly below/at VWAP—bearish)

3. Moving averages (estimates from the dataset)

• Daily SMA20 ≈ 1.01–1.03; SMA50 ≈ ~0.99–1.00. Price at 0.927 trades below both—bearish alignment.
• EMA8/EMA21: Bearish cross occurred last week; both above price (EMA8 ≈ ~0.99, EMA21 ≈ ~1.01). This suggests rallies into the low-0.95/0.99 region likely meet supply.

4. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14): ~38–42 and falling: bearish but not deeply oversold; room to extend lower after minor bounces.
• 1H RSI: recovered from ~25–30 on the low to the low-40s; this is classic bear-market bounce momentum, not trend reversal.
• Stochastic (1H): Oscillating up from oversold, but constrained under 50–60; often rolls over in downtrends near these levels.
• MACD (daily): Below signal and zero-line slope turning down—bearish momentum regime.

5. Volatility and bands

• Daily ATR(14) ≈ ~0.05 (5–6 cents). Today’s range ~0.993→0.916 (~7.7 cents) aligns with a volatility expansion lower.
• Bollinger Bands (daily): Mid-band ≈ SMA20 ~1.02; lower band ≈ ~0.93. Price hugging/lapping the lower band implies trend-pressure down; near-band bounces are probable but typically fade below the mid-band in a downtrend.

6. Volume/flow diagnostics

• Down days show heavier participation (e.g., Sep 10–12 expansion higher followed by heavy sell pressure into Sep 18–22). OBV proxy is bleeding since Sep 12 peak.
• Today broke below classic pivot S-levels intraday (see pivots below) and volume increased on pushes lower, indicating supply dominance.

7. Classical pivots (using Sep 21 H/L/C ~1.0232/0.9905/0.9911)

• P ≈ 1.0016; R1 ≈ 1.0127; S1 ≈ 0.9800; S2 ≈ 0.9690; S3 ≈ 0.9468.
• Today traded below S3 (0.9468) down to 0.916, indicating a trend-day type pressure. Reversion often retests S3 from below (≈0.947) before deciding the next leg—good short entry zone.

8. Fibonacci mapping (swing Sep 12 high 1.1325 → today’s low 0.9159)

• Range = 0.2166. Key retraces from the low: 23.6% ≈ 0.966, 38.2% ≈ 0.9986, 50% ≈ 1.024, 61.8% ≈ 1.050.
• Current price 0.927 is below 23.6%. In strong downtrends, rallies may stall at 23.6–38.2%. Thus 0.94–0.97 is the tactical sell zone; 0.95 aligns with S3 and hourly supply.

9. Ichimoku (daily/4H approximations)

• Price below cloud; Span A/B above; Chikou under price—bearish stack.
• Tenkan (9-period mid) ≈ (recent 9-day high 1.0947 + low 0.9159)/2 ≈ 1.005; Kijun (26-period mid) ≈ ~1.02. Price far below both—gravity remains down; mean reversion likely capped under ~1.00 in 24h window.

10. DMI/ADX (directional strength)

• -DI > +DI on daily; ADX climbing toward low/mid-20s: strengthening bearish trend. Expect bounces to fade before breaching 0.97–1.00.

11. Regression channel and pattern read

• Descending channel (since Sep 12) with today testing lower boundary near ~0.92. Typical path: minor bounce to channel midline (~0.94–0.95) then continuation toward 0.90 handle if supply persists.
• Intraday double-bottom attempt at ~0.916 failed to reclaim 0.94 decisively—bearish tell.

12. VWAP/Mean-Reversion (intraday)

• Price mostly at/below session VWAP proxy (0.932–0.935). Rallies to VWAP and prior S3 ~0.947 are high-probability fade zones if volume doesn’t flip positive.

13. Liquidity/Stops landscape

• Below 0.92, liquidity pockets toward 0.90/0.897 (Aug 31 close) then 0.88. Above, stops likely cluster at 0.94–0.95 and 0.966 (23.6% fib). Expect stop-driven wick-ups into 0.94–0.95 that attract fresh sellers.

14. Scenario planning (24h)

• Base case (60%): Relief bounce into 0.94–0.95 (VWAP/S3/supply confluence), then roll over to probe 0.90–0.905. Close near 0.90–0.92 range.
• Bullish alt (25%): Stronger short-cover to 0.966 (23.6% fib). Sellers reassert near 0.966–0.98; unlikely to sustain above 0.98 within 24h unless a catalyst appears.
• Bearish extension (15%): Weak bounce fails; direct drift to 0.89–0.895; tail risk stab toward 0.88 if liquidity cascades.

15. Synthesis and trade logic

• Confluences for a tactical short: Downtrend structure, price under key MAs and Tenkan/Kijun, below daily pivot S3, MACD negative, OBV bleed, DMI/ADX bearish, and fib resistance overhead (0.95–0.97).
• Optimal execution favors selling a pop into the 0.94–0.95 zone (prior S3 + hourly supply + VWAP proximity) with targets near 0.90–0.905 (round-number magnet and August HVN/low cluster). This fits ATR and the 24h horizon.

Prediction (next 24 hours)

• Expect a short-cover bounce toward 0.94–0.95 early, followed by renewed selling pressure pushing price toward 0.90–0.905. Range expectation: 0.89–0.96, with bias to close in the lower half of that range.

Trade decision

• Bias: Sell (Short).
• Rationale: Short-term trend/momentum bearish with supply overhead; bounce into 0.94–0.95 offers favorable R:R for a 24-hour swing down toward 0.90–0.905.

Execution parameters

• Entry (limit to maximize expectancy): 0.943 (inside 0.94–0.95 supply pocket; aligns with pivot S3 retest).
• Take-profit (24h objective): 0.902 (just above the 0.90 round-number support to increase fill probability).