Step 1: Market Structure & Trend Analysis

Long-Term Context (3 months):

• From Feb 23–Mar 6, OP traded above $1.00, showing strong bullish momentum, culminating with several surges above $1.10.
• A notable trend change occurred in late March with a sharp downtrend, marked by lower highs and lower lows. Price fell below $1.00 and failed to recover this level, displaying clear structural weakness and a break in the bullish market structure.
• The period from mid-March to present showcases a clean downtrend, with failed attempts at rallies and continual support breakdowns.

Medium-Term (1 month):

• From late April, OP attempted a recovery from the $0.60s, staging a rally towards $0.91 but faced repeated rejection at $0.85–$0.91, forming a persistent supply zone.
• Over May, volatility increased considerably with multiple high-volume selloffs followed by shallow bounces, indicating distribution phases.
• Each local peak is lower than the previous, confirming a series of lower highs.

Step 2: Chart Pattern Analysis

Recent Patterns:

• Bear Flag Formation: After falling from the $0.91 zone, price consolidated, forming a rising wedge/flag pattern (May 16–21), breaking downwards on May 22–23.
• Head and Shoulders Top: Observed from May 9–15, with a break below $0.75 neckline, confirming further bearishness.
• Descending Triangle: Between May 12–22, with horizontal support at $0.75 and sequentially lower highs; price broke below this area, confirming continuation.

Volume Analysis:

• Repeated spikes in volume during selloffs (May 10–13 and May 22–23), with declining volume on upswings, shows sellers are in control.

Step 3: Technical Indicators

A. Moving Averages (calculated from data):

• 20-period SMA: Price broke below its short-term average on May 22 and failed to reclaim it, indicating weak near-term trend.
• 50-period SMA: Acts as resistance since early-May – every backtest leads to a selloff.
• 200-period SMA: Well above current price, not in play, but the gap confirms clear bear market territory.

B. RSI (Estimation):

• With a persistent downtrend and regular sharp down-moves, RSI is likely oscillating between 30 and 45, with no bullish divergence yet spotted. Last few hourly candles are oversold or approaching oversold.

C. MACD (Estimation):

• MACD likely remains below zero line, and the histogram expanded negatively upon the May 23 breakdown, showing persistent bearish momentum.

Step 4: Support & Resistance Zones

• Immediate Resistance: $0.79–$0.80 (last breakdown zone, EMA cluster).
• Next Major Resistance: $0.83–$0.85 (prior high-volume rejection area from May 21–22).
• Immediate Support: $0.76–$0.768 (current price, prior reaction area).
• Major Support: $0.73 (May 18–21 lows); next $0.70 (psychological round number and historical pivotal area).

Step 5: Price Action & Order Flow

• Recent hours: Strong rejection above $0.83 during Asian/early Europe session (May 23), followed by sustained selling into $0.76–$0.77.
• Bounces are weak and short-lived; candles with long upper wicks abound, showing sellers step in quickly on every uptick.
• The last hourly closes show a steady march down, with no strong reversal candles or climactic buying interest observed yet.

Step 6: Volatility & Momentum

• ATR (estimated): Substantially higher in May than prior periods, with repeated wide-range candles especially on sell volume.
• Momentum: Strongly negative, price closing near the hourly lows repeatedly.

Step 7: Sentiment & Positioning

• Macro trend, volume dynamics, and price action all show supply dominance. No technical evidence of capitulation or bottoming reversal seen.
• If price loses the $0.76 handle with follow-through, further acceleration of the downtrend is likely.

Step 8: Statistical & Algorithmic Methods

• Fibonacci Retracement: From May 8 swing low ($0.59) to May 10 swing high ($0.93), the 61.8% retracement is near $0.73 – a likely draw for price in the short term.
• Mean Reversion: Current price is below multi-day VWAP. No sign of reversion imminent, based on trend dominance.

Trading Plan

• Bias: Bearish continuation. Structure, momentum, volume, and pattern recognition all favor the downside.
• Entry: Look to initiate a SHORT position on a retest of the $0.77–$0.78 area (prior breakdown, minor liquidity pocket).
• Target: First take-profit/open close near $0.73 (prior swing low, high-probability magnet given recent breakdowns), as this aligns with structural and Fibonacci levels.
• Invalidation (Stop): If price regains MAs and hourly closes back above $0.81–$0.82, the thesis would be invalid, but this is NOT the base case.

Conclusion

Optimism's price action, technical indicator alignment, and order flow all point to continued downward momentum in the next 24 hours. The most optimal trade is to sell a bounce to the $0.77–$0.78 zone with a target at $0.73, capturing the likely next major move lower. No evidence for a sustainable reversal is present at this time.