Technical Analysis of Optimism (OP) - July 9, 2025

1. Price Action and Trend Analysis (Daily & Intraday)

• Recent Macro-Trend: OP peaked near $0.91 in mid-May before entering a prolonged and aggressive downtrend, bottoming around $0.48–$0.50. Since late June, OP has displayed a rounded bottom formation, steadily making higher lows and experiencing a modest recovery.
• Short-Term Trend: The last five days show decisive bullish momentum off the $0.53–$0.55 support zone into the $0.57–$0.58 region, with today's session closing at $0.5789. This bounce comes after a significant capitulation on June 13 (intraday low of $0.561), followed by accumulation and tighter range action leading to a breakout above $0.57 yesterday.
• Intraday Volatility: July 9's hourly data reveals a strong move from $0.55 to $0.58 during US trading hours, with momentum peaking and minor retracements. Volumes surged on green candles (notably between 12:00–20:00 UTC), suggesting short-term bullish conviction.

2. Support and Resistance Levels

• Major Resistance:
  • $0.60–$0.62: Previous breakdown level & June 30 high
  • $0.66: Secondary resistance (mid-June pivot)
• Major Support:
  • $0.54–$0.56: Multi-day swing low, now acting as base
  • $0.51–$0.53: Extreme panic lows from late June

3. Candlestick/Pattern Analysis

• Rounded Bottom/Accumulation: The recent price action off the $0.53–$0.55 lows shows classic accumulation—a violation of lows, extended sideways base, and then a swift recovery, forming the right shoulder of a potential inverted head-and-shoulders (on the 4H chart).
• High-Volume Breakouts: Today's price surge through $0.56 and $0.57 happened on heightened volume, confirming genuine interest and a possible short squeeze, further evidenced by the strong hourly continuation candles.

4. Moving Averages (SMA/EMA)

• Short-term (7–21 EMA): The 7EMA on both daily/intraday charts is being reclaimed; OP closed comfortably above both the 7EMA and the 21EMA on the daily, providing additional bullish conviction.
• Medium-term (50SMA): The next obvious target is the 50SMA, residing at $0.61, which overlaps with horizontal resistance.

5. Momentum Oscillators

• RSI (14): After being deeply oversold (<30) in late June, RSI is emerging into a neutral/bullish zone (~48–55 on today’s close), indicating ongoing reversal strength but not overheated yet.
• MACD: Showing a fresh bullish cross on daily timeframe; histogram flipping positive for the first time in a month, which typically signals at least a multi-day rally leg.

6. Volume Profile & Accumulation/Distribution

• Accumulation: Gradually rising OBV (On-Balance Volume) after the late June bottom, suggesting stealth accumulation.
• Volume Spike Confirmation: Large green volume bars on the recent upmove are supportive of a healthy recovery, outpacing preceding red bars.

7. Fibonacci Retracement (from May High to June Low)

• Key Retracement Levels:
  • 23.6%: $0.58 (current price is at this pocket)
  • 38.2%: $0.62 (aligns with resistance)
  • 50%: $0.68 A move into the $0.60–$0.62 area (38.2%) is the natural Fibonacci target during recoveries.

8. Ichimoku Cloud (Daily)

• Tenkan & Kijun: Conversion (Tenkan) crossed above base (Kijun) line today—often a prelude to a momentum trend continuation.
• Cloud Cover: Price trading at/just below a thin Kumo (cloud); breaking and closing above $0.58–$0.60 flips the daily regime bullish.

9. Volatility Indicators (ATR, Bollinger Bands)

• ATR: Volatility is rising after a contraction phase—meaning a bigger directional move is likely.
• Bollinger Bands: OP broke the upper band today ($0.58), confirming a volatility expansion—this often suggests a 1–2 day continuation before mean reversion.

10. Elliott Wave Analysis (Short-Term)

• The current structure shows a completed corrective (ABC) wave down, and the current upward thrust appears to be the start of an impulse wave 1. Short-term, a Wave 3 could extend to $0.62 if momentum sustains.

11. Sentiment & Context

• Capitulation & Reversal Energy: Previous panic volume coupled with measured, low-volume retracements on red days signal sellers are exhausted. The fresh influx of demand suggests short-term rallies are likely.

12. Summary & Probabilistic Price Prediction

Given the weight of bullish signals (volume expansion, breakout over moving averages, reversal momentum, upside volatility, supportive patterns), I expect Optimism (OP) to continue advancing over the next 24 hours.

• Probable Move: Test of $0.61–$0.62, coinciding with major resistance, moving average cluster, and Fibonacci levels.
• Risk/Reward: A small retrace to $0.57 is possible, but any drop toward $0.56 is likely to be heavily bought due to the recent base-building and breakout confirmation.

Conclusion: BUY/Long Signal

• Action: "Buy" (Long Position)
• Entry (Open Price): Ideal entry on minor intraday retest at $0.576
• Target (Close Price / Take Profit): $0.618 (confluence of resistance, Fibonacci, 50SMA)
• Stop Loss (not required, but relevant): Consider risk management with a stop under $0.555 (base of current breakout)

Final Note

If bullish momentum persists and $0.62 is cleared, the next extension may drive the price toward $0.66, but that should be re-evaluated based on new price action and volume data.