Step 1: Trend Identification

Longer-Term Trend (Daily Data)

From the daily data, OP entered a strong uptrend in early May (price surge from ~$0.69 to $0.95 in a span of days, driven by a sharp volume increase and likely news or macro factors). However, this momentum was not sustained. By mid-June the token entered distribution and heavy selloff, breaking key support levels at $0.75 and $0.65, ultimately forming a local bottom at ~$0.48 (June 22).

Since then, we see a pronounced recovery. From a low of $0.48, OP steadily reclaimed territory, with significant accumulation marked by larger green candles and rising volumes. Price broke $0.60 by end of June, and July saw a dramatic push to $0.66+. This rebound is supported by increasing daily volumes, indicating active accumulation.

However, a crucial pattern emerges: every attempt above $0.70 (recent daily closes and intra-day highs) faces swift rejection and increased supply. This zone aligns with both volume profile and technical resistance from the prior major breakdown (late May, early June). The most current daily close—$0.6869—marks another failure to decisively conquer the $0.70–0.71 resistance band.

Short-Term Trend (Intraday/Hourly Data)

Zooming into July 11th's intraday action: The price action was highly volatile. Early in the day, OP rallied continuously from $0.65 (overnight lows) to tap $0.70, then saw quick selling to $0.67–0.68. Notably, each retest of $0.69–$0.70 brings a new wave of sellers, confirming the area's technical significance.

The hourly candles in the last two sessions illustrate smaller-bodied candles with longer upper wicks, closing at lower values, typical of fading upward momentum and profit taking near resistance. Simultaneously, volume has declined from earlier in the day, often a precursor of either reversal or consolidation.

Step 2: Technical Indicators

Moving Averages

• 50-Day MA: Currently in the $0.63–$0.66 range, price is above this average, indicating medium-term bullishness.
• 20-Day EMA: The price has recently reclaimed this moving average, oscillating between $0.68–$0.69. Upside is capped by the resistance at $0.70+.
• 200-Day MA: Deep below at $0.60–$0.61, so there is no late-stage overextension, but the market is still correcting a major downtrend.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

• Daily RSI: Likely in the 61–65 region, suggesting slight overbought, but not extreme (based on the recent rally and rejection). Short-term RSI (eg. 4h, 1h) is rolling over from high 70s to 60s, confirming loss of buying momentum.

MACD

• MACD Line vs. Signal Line: The recent bullish crossover (late June) is beginning to flatten, with histogram showing reduced positive momentum. If price stalls here, MACD could turn negative on shorter timeframes soon.

Step 3: Volume and Volatility Analysis

• Volume: The volume surge and price expansion off the $0.48 low was dramatic. The last three days, however, show declining bullish volume at resistance, a hallmark of buyer exhaustion or hidden distribution.
• ATR & Volatility: Average True Range spiked in early July but is now compressing (~$0.03–$0.04 per day). Lower volatility at resistance is often a precursor to a sharp move—likely a rejection and pullback as bulls fail to break through $0.70.

Step 4: Chart Patterns / Candlestick Analysis

• Double Top / Lower High: Two failed rallies into the $0.70–$0.72 region (7/10 evening, 7/11 early) set up a textbook short-term double top, particularly visible on the 1–4h chart. Lower daily high compared to last week's $0.75 peak.
• Bearish Engulfing / Shooting Star: Several recent hourly and the final 4H candle form strong upper wicks, failing to close above $0.69, suggesting buyer fatigue.

Step 5: Support and Resistance Mapping

• Resistance:
  • $0.70–$0.72: Multi-day and intra-day resistance, thick supply zone.
  • $0.74–$0.75: Next key area if $0.70 breaks (not likely without further consolidation).
• Support:
  • $0.66–$0.67: Immediate support, where price frequently consolidates after dips.
  • $0.64: Next local demand zone — a cluster of past wicks and daily closes (early July). Break of this level will embolden sellers for a deeper retracement.

Step 6: Fibonacci Retracement (From $0.48 low to recent $0.70 high)

• 38.2%: ~$0.62
• 50%: ~$0.59
• 61.8%: ~$0.57 If price fails $0.66, a mean-reversion to $0.62 or $0.59 is feasible and aligns with MA support.

Step 7: Order Flow, Market Sentiment & External Context

• Market has already priced in the late-June/early-July bullish news; bullish momentum is waning.
• No significant on-chain, macro, or ecosystem news standing out in the last days.
• Sentiment is shifting neutral/bearish among short-term traders given repeated rejections at $0.70 and fading volume.

Step 8: Synthesis and Forecast

• Bullish Case: Only if daily close >$0.72 with strong volume. Currently, no confirmation. Upward attempts lack conviction and get sold into.
• Bearish Case: Strong, supported by multiple failed rallies at resistance, weakening momentum, lower highs/lower closes, and declining buy-side volume. Downside is open toward $0.66, potentially $0.64

Step 9: Risk Management and Trade Setup

• Optimal short (Sell) entry: As close to $0.69 as possible (current market price $0.6869 is adequate, ideal would be a slight wick up toward $0.69–$0.70 on weak volume).
• Take profit at $0.64: First logical bounce point, previous support/resistance flip, aligns with local demand and technical retracement levels.
• Stop loss (not for this sell/buy, but for full clarity): Above $0.71–$0.72 breakout to avoid bear trap.

Final Recommendation: SELL

• Structure: Short Position
• Open Price: $0.6869
• Close Price: $0.64 (safe, risk-managed target)

This recommendation captures the highest-probability move based on multi-factor confluence: trend exhaustion, resistance strength, faltering momentum, and price-volume divergence.

Note: Monitor for a final fake-out wick into $0.70 (could enhance entry), but be wary if true breakout volume materializes.