OP reclaims the golden pocket and pivot — aiming for 0.759 in the next 24 hours

OP USDT detailed multi-timeframe technical analysis and 24h outlook

Summary of the tape

• Current price: 0.7384, up from Friday’s panic low near 0.7109 and reclaiming the 61.8 percent retracement of the Aug 2 to Aug 13 advance.
• Structure: After a sharp two-day corrective leg from 0.881 to 0.723, today is an inside day with a small bullish body and higher low. On the 1-hour, price is carving higher lows with a flat ceiling near 0.739, forming a minor ascending triangle.
• Thesis: Mean-reversion toward clustered resistance between 0.753 and 0.759 over the next 24 hours while the 0.727 to 0.735 pivot zone holds as intraday support.

1. Trend and moving averages

• 20-day SMA (approx): 0.726. Price is above, signaling near-term bullish bias and a successful mid-band reclaim.
• 10-day SMA (approx): 0.770. Price is below, reflecting the short-term overextension down from the Aug 13 spike. A revert-to-mean path points up toward the 0.75 to 0.77 area.
• 5-day SMA (approx): 0.775. Still above price; supports the notion of a relief bounce into that region, but it will be resistance on first test.
• 50-day SMA (est.): around 0.68 to 0.70 based on June–Aug action. Price well above, medium-term trend remains up. Interpretation: Mixed short-term, bullish medium-term. Reclaim of 20-SMA favors a drift higher toward the 10-SMA band if intraday supports hold.

2. Momentum

• Daily RSI(14) estimate: ~59. Not overbought and above the 50 midline; supports further upside from a momentum standpoint after the pullback.
• Hourly RSI: pushing into the 60s during the late-session push; short-term overbought risk on the 1-hour suggests minor dips before continuation.
• MACD daily: Bullish impulse peaked into Aug 13; histogram has contracted on the correction. With price stabilizing above the 61.8 percent fib, MACD is curling; risk of a bear cross has diminished if price holds above 0.727–0.735.
• Hourly MACD: Turning up and close to or above the signal line with rising histogram; supportive of a grind higher. Interpretation: Momentum is rebuilding from neutral-bullish posture; expect shallow dips and higher lows intraday.

3. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) daily (est.): ~0.06 to 0.07. A one-day move of 8 to 9 percent has been common on event days; a 3 to 4 percent push is typical in quieter sessions. A move from 0.738 to 0.758 fits comfortably within one ATR.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2) daily: Mid-band ~0.726; upper band estimated near 0.86 after the recent spike; lower band around 0.59 to 0.60. Current price sits just above mid-band, a classic bounce setup toward the band mid-to-upper quartile (0.75–0.78) without needing to tag the upper band. Interpretation: Plenty of room for a controlled upswing. Reversion to the mean already underway.

4. Market structure and price action

• Higher timeframe: July to mid-August produced higher highs and higher lows with a climatic high on Aug 13. The subsequent two-day selloff looks corrective within the broader uptrend. Key swing levels: support 0.705, 0.675, 0.649; resistance 0.753–0.760, 0.775–0.789, 0.810–0.814, 0.840–0.863, 0.873–0.881.
• Daily candle today: Inside day relative to Aug 15, with a higher low. Inside-day breaks often guide the next day’s direction. A push above 0.739 intraday and ultimately 0.771 (yesterday’s high) would confirm buyers back in control.
• Intraday structure: Since late Friday, sequence of higher lows from 0.721 to 0.723 to 0.730 to 0.733 with a flat cap around 0.739. This is a classic ascending triangle; measured breakout target of this micro base aligns with 0.749 to 0.753 first, then 0.759 on extension. Interpretation: Structure supports a continuation toward 0.753–0.759 if 0.729–0.735 is defended on pullbacks.

5. Fibonacci mapping

• From Aug 2 low 0.6319 to Aug 13 high 0.8812: key retraces are 38.2 percent 0.786, 50 percent 0.7566, 61.8 percent 0.7272. Price dipped below and has now reclaimed the 61.8 percent level; next magnet is the 50 percent at 0.756–0.757, then 0.786.
• From the drop Aug 13 high 0.8812 to Aug 15 low 0.7109: 38.2 percent retrace 0.776, 50 percent 0.796, 61.8 percent 0.816. Early bounce targets sit beneath 0.776; thus 0.753–0.759 is a reasonable first objective during stabilization. Interpretation: Reclaim of golden pocket bottom (around 0.727) adds confluence for a move to the mid-fibs near 0.756–0.759.

6. Ichimoku overview (approx)

• Tenkan (9): midpoint of last 9 high/low ~0.796. Price below Tenkan, short-term corrective phase persists.
• Kijun (26): midpoint of last 26 range ~0.749. Price just below Kijun; mean reversion toward Kijun is likely if current supports hold.
• Cloud: Likely still below price on the higher timeframe given July–Aug uptrend, acting as underlying support. Interpretation: Sub-Kijun, but close. A push to 0.749–0.759 tests the baseline; acceptance above Kijun would flip short-term tone more decisively bullish.

7. DMI ADX and breadth

• DMI: -DI crossed over +DI during the recent selloff; that bearish push is fading as price stabilizes. Expect a re-cross if price closes above 0.753–0.759 in coming sessions.
• ADX: rising into the selloff but likely in the ~20–25 range. A weakening -DI with stable ADX often precedes a drift back to equilibrium levels. Interpretation: Short-term selling pressure is ebbing; room for a rebound swing.

8. Volume, OBV, and profile

• OBV: Strong uptrend into Aug 13, notable distribution on Aug 14, partial OBV pullback since. Today’s stabilization suggests OBV flattening; a breakout above 0.739 with rising volume should re-steepen OBV.
• Volume profile by price (visual inference): High-volume node around 0.74–0.76 from repeated closes; secondary node 0.66–0.70; thin pocket 0.78–0.81. Price residing near a node implies magnet behavior around 0.74–0.76; breaking above 0.759 can accelerate into the 0.775–0.789 pocket. Interpretation: 0.74–0.76 is the battleground; winning it opens 0.775–0.789 quickly.

9. VWAPs and pivots

• Daily standard floor pivots (based on Fri H 0.771, L 0.711, C 0.723):
  • Pivot P ≈ 0.735
  • R1 ≈ 0.759
  • S1 ≈ 0.699 Current price is marginally above P; classic intraday play is long above P targeting R1. This dovetails with other methods. Intraday VWAP today is likely around 0.729–0.732; price is above, confirming buyer control on the session. Interpretation: Long bias while above the pivot; R1 is the natural magnet at 0.759.

10. Pattern signals and candlesticks

• Inside day after a two-day drop: a pause that refreshes. Break to the upside is favored given the reclaim of the 61.8 fib and pivot.
• Hourly ascending triangle: break over 0.739 typically brings a measured move of roughly the triangle height (~0.010–0.012), projecting 0.749–0.751 initial, then continuation to 0.756–0.759 on momentum.
• Heikin-Ashi inference: After two large red HA candles, smaller-bodied candles with upper wicks are appearing, consistent with a transition from sell to balance to early buy. Interpretation: Price action setup favors an upside resolution toward mid-0.75s.

11. Risk, invalidation, and alternative path

• Key support band: 0.727–0.735 (fib 61.8, daily pivot P, micro higher-low shelf). A daily or multi-hour acceptance below 0.727 puts 0.711 and 0.705 back in play.
• Invalidation for the long scalp: decisive break and hold below 0.721–0.723 (recent intraday base) would negate the immediate bullish bias and likely slide toward 0.705 where stronger demand sits.
• Bearish alternative for next 24h: Failure to break 0.739 and a loss of 0.735 opens a quick mean reversion to 0.729–0.731; loss of 0.727 would target 0.711 and possibly a stop-run toward 0.705.

12. Confluence checklist for the long

• Reclaim of 61.8 percent retracement from the Aug 2 swing.
• Trading above daily pivot P; R1 aligns near 0.759.
• 20-day SMA reclaimed; medium-term uptrend intact above 50-day SMA.
• Intraday ascending triangle under a clear micro-ceiling at 0.739.
• RSI supportive (near 59 daily), MACD hourly curling up, OBV steadying.
• Volume node magnet at 0.74–0.76 and thin air above 0.759 into 0.775. This is sufficient confluence for a tactical long with defined risk.

13. 24-hour path expectation

• Base case 60 to 70 percent: Mild dip to 0.733–0.735, then break 0.739, extension to 0.745–0.753, and test of 0.759 into R1 by the daily session turnover or early next day.
• Stretch case 20 percent: Stronger momentum day pushes through 0.759 and tags 0.771–0.776 (prior high and 38.2 retrace of the drop) if volume expands.
• Risk case 20 percent: Rejection at 0.739 and loss of 0.735 lead to 0.729 retest; if 0.727 fails, a quick move to 0.711–0.705.

Trade plan logic

• Long bias while price holds above the 0.727–0.735 pivot cluster. Optimal open is a limit buy on a minor pullback to the pivot. Target aligns with daily R1 and the 50 percent fib of the Aug 2 to Aug 13 leg at 0.756–0.759. A prudent stop for risk control would sit below 0.721–0.723, but note that the requested output includes only open and close prices; stop is noted here for context.

Bottom line

• The path of least resistance in the next 24 hours is a controlled rebound toward 0.753–0.759, provided 0.727–0.735 holds. The confluence of the daily pivot, fib levels, and intraday structure supports a tactical long with a take-profit near 0.759.

Note: Crypto trades 24/7 and weekend liquidity can be thinner; expect slippage and wicks. Manage position size accordingly.