OP: Buy the 0.79 Dip — Targeting a 0.83 Rebound Within 24 Hours

Executive summary

• Bias (next 24h): Mildly bullish mean‑reversion from 0.79 support; expected range 0.788 – 0.835 with a retest of 0.826–0.833 likely if 0.789 holds.
• Setup: Buy the dip into 0.79 ±0.003, targeting a rebound toward the daily pivot/micro‑supply at 0.826–0.833. Failure of 0.789 opens 0.780–0.773.

Multi‑timeframe trend and structure

• Daily trend: Higher highs and higher lows since the 8/25 swing low (0.6876). Recent highs 0.832–0.852 with today’s intraday rejection at ~0.853. Structure remains constructive despite a pullback.
• 4H/1H trend: Pullback from overextension; intraday lower highs since the 00:00–02:00 UTC spike. Price is probing a prior demand block around 0.79–0.80.
• Key horizontal levels: Support 0.786–0.802 (prior closing cluster), 0.779–0.780 (Fib/late‑session shelf), 0.772–0.773. Resistance 0.826–0.833 (daily pivot/volume node), 0.845–0.853 (R1/supply), 0.873–0.881 (August spike zone).

Moving averages (approximations from the provided series)

• SMA20 ≈ 0.754 (current price 0.796 > SMA20) – bullish above the short‑term mean.
• SMA50 ≈ 0.73–0.75; SMA100 ≈ high‑0.6s/low‑0.7s – price above both, confirming medium‑term uptrend.
• Slope: 20>50>100 upward ordering intact. Pullbacks to the rising MAs have been bought.

Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14) ≈ 58–62 after today’s pullback (est. from last 14 closes). That’s bullish but not overbought; plenty of room to bounce before 70.
• Hourly RSI likely reset to mid‑40s after the decline from 0.85 to ~0.80, improving risk/reward for a tactical long. No evidence of extreme overbought.
• Stochastic (qualitative): cycling lower from overbought, approaching a turn zone near support; supportive of a near‑term bounce scenario.

MACD

• Daily MACD line still above zero but histogram has begun to contract after the 9/18 push – typical of a pullback within an uptrend. A shallow bearish cross risk on intraday frames, but daily remains constructive while price holds above ~0.78–0.79.

Bollinger Bands (20,2)

• Midline ≈ SMA20 ≈ 0.754; estimated upper ≈ 0.844 and lower ≈ 0.664 (σ ≈ 0.045). Price pulled back from the upper band toward the upper‑mid zone; mean‑reversion toward 0.82–0.83 is plausible in the next 24h if support holds.

Fibonacci mapping

• Swing considered: 9/15 low (0.7438) → 9/18 high (0.8391).
  • 38.2% = ~0.8027
  • 50% = ~0.7914
  • 61.8% = ~0.7801
• Current price 0.7966 sits between the 38.2% and 50% retracement – a classic buy‑the‑dip zone, with confluence from intraday demand. A wick into 0.791–0.793 (50%/S2 confluence) is an attractive entry.

Ichimoku (qualitative approximation)

• Tenkan‑sen (9‑period mid) ≈ ~0.79–0.80; Kijun‑sen (26‑period mid) ≈ ~0.78–0.79. Price now near Tenkan and above Kijun. That positioning is neutral‑to‑bullish; bounces off Kijun/Tenkan frequently occur here in ongoing uptrends.

Classical pivots (calculated from 9/18: H 0.8391, L 0.8066, C 0.8322)

• Pivot P ≈ 0.8260
• S1 ≈ 0.8128; S2 ≈ 0.7935; R1 ≈ 0.8454
• Today’s low probed just above S2 (~0.794). Mean‑reversion to P (~0.826) in the next session is the base case, with potential extension toward R1 (0.845) if momentum rebuilds.

Volume/flow analysis

• Daily volume elevated on the upswing into 0.83–0.85 and on today’s pullback (~230M), indicating two‑way trade and profit‑taking at resistance. However, the substantial absorption around 0.79–0.80 intraday suggests demand.
• VPVR/proxy: Visible high‑volume nodes around 0.80 and 0.75 from recent weeks; thin air between 0.826–0.833 and 0.845 can accelerate price once reclaimed.

Candlestick/patterns

• Daily: Long upper wick into ~0.85 shows supply; the close near 0.80 tests demand. Given the broader uptrend, this often resolves in a 1–2 day sideways/up retrace toward 0.826–0.833 before the next decision.
• Intraday: Descending channel from the local top; a break of the hourly channel top near ~0.807–0.811 would signal momentum returning toward the daily pivot.

Volatility and range statistics

• Recent daily ATR(14) ≈ 0.035–0.045. Today’s high‑to‑low (≈ 0.058) stretched into 1.3–1.6x ATR, making follow‑through downside less probable without fresh catalysts. A compression/mean‑reversion day is more likely next.

Statistical mean‑reversion/Z‑score (vs SMA20)

• Z ≈ (0.7966 − 0.7544) / 0.045 ≈ +0.94 – mildly positive, not stretched; supports the idea of additional upside room toward +1.5σ (~0.822) without being overextended.

Elliott wave framing (heuristic)

• From 0.7438 (9/15) to 0.8391 (9/18) looks like an impulse; today’s pullback to ~0.796 aligns with a wave‑4‑type retrace (38.2–50%). A final wave‑5 push could target 0.833–0.845 in the near term if the 0.789 base holds.

Liquidity/stop map (qualitative)

• Likely resting liquidity below 0.792–0.789 (recent lows/50% Fib). A brief sweep into 0.790–0.792 then reversal is a common pattern. Upside liquidity sits around 0.826–0.833 (prior close/pivot) and 0.845–0.853 (session high cluster/R1).

Confluence summary

• Bullish factors: Uptrend intact (price > 20/50/100 SMAs), RSI not overbought, Fib 50% + S2 pivot + Ichimoku Tenkan/Kijun zone around 0.79–0.80, ATR exhaustion on the down‑move, strong demand historically near 0.80.
• Bearish/risks: Clear supply at 0.845–0.853 rejected today; heavy red volume hints at distribution near the highs; weekend liquidity can exaggerate moves. A decisive break of 0.789 exposes 0.780–0.773 quickly.

24‑hour scenarios (subjective probabilities)

• Base case (60%): Hold 0.789–0.796, rebound to 0.826–0.833; potential close in the 0.822–0.832 zone.
• Bear case (30%): Lose 0.789; slide to 0.780–0.773 before stabilizing.
• Bull extension (10%): Reclaim 0.833 early, squeeze toward 0.845–0.853.

Trade plan (tactical, 24h)

• Direction: Buy (Long) – buy‑the‑dip.
• Entry: Limit near 0.792 (Fib 50%/S2 confluence). Accept fills 0.790–0.795.
• Take profit: 0.832 (retest of prior close/supply ledge), with optional scale‑out 0.826 if actively managing.
• Risk framing (informational): A prudent protective stop would sit near 0.778–0.780 (below 61.8% Fib and shelf), offering ~1.7–2.5R to 0.832 depending on fill. Position sizing should reflect weekend liquidity and crypto volatility.

Bottom line

• The pullback has reached a high‑quality confluence zone around 0.79–0.80 in the context of a still‑positive daily trend. The next 24 hours favor a bounce toward 0.826–0.833 if 0.789 holds. I prefer a patient bid around 0.792 with a target at 0.832.