Exhaustive Technical Analysis for ORDI (ORDI)

1. Trend Analysis

Long-Term Trend (Daily Candles)

• February 21 - May 21, 2025:
  • Peak/High: Reached $14.31 on Feb 21, initial strong uptrend, but subsequently reversed.
  • Major Correction: Severe drop to $6.0–$8.0 band by early April, reflecting a shift to a downtrend.
  • Recent Recovery: From early May, ORDI staged a pronounced rally from ~$7.5 to $12.38, before correcting down to $10.2. Volatility is extreme at the top.
• Intermediate Trend:
  • Current: Multiple strong bull and bear candles, with recent sessions showing high wicks on both sides—indicating indecision/an emerging reversal zone.

Short-Term Trend (Hourly Data)

• Intraday (May 21):
  • Sideways to up bias in the morning, then explosive upwards movement from ~10.05 to 11.15 by 16:00. This was followed by a sharp rejection/drop to ~10.2, and moderate stabilization.
  • Last hours: Price ranging tightly between $10.16–$10.40.
  • Structure: V-bottom intraday but with resistance and lower highs forming.

2. Volume & Momentum Analysis

• Volume Spikes:
  • Highest volumes observed during large moves (rallies and dump days)—notably the surge–pullback sequence on May 21.
  • Volume on the recent rejection bar (16:00–17:00): Surged massively; this usually suggests distribution (profit taking) into strength.
• Momentum Indicators (Estimated):
  • RSI (est.): Likely overbought (>70) on the breakout to $11.16, with fast mean reversion signals. Likely back to neutral around 50–55 now.
  • Stochastic: Overbought reversal in play; no clear bullish divergence for new highs confirmed.

3. Volatility & Support/Resistance Structure

• ATR/Volatility: Spreading from $9.2 to $11.2 in one day is a >20% move; extremely high volatility.
• Key Resistance Zones:
  • $11.15–$12.00: Upper rejection, supply clearly in control.
  • $10.3–$10.45: Intraday resistance; candle bodies frequently capped here.
• Support Levels:
  • $9.70–$10.00: Closest tested support, many touches.
  • $9.20–$9.55: Deeper support from May 19 and late March structures.
  • Psychological: $10.00 (formerly resistance—now support?)

4. Chart Patterns & Candle Structure

• Double Top (Short-Term): Intraday peaks near $10.41 and $11.16, both rejected hard—bearish reversal pattern in progress.
• Doji/Spinning Top: Recent hourly candles showing small bodies, upper/lower wicks, indicating indecision.
• Bullish Exhaustion: The apparent attempt to break $11s failed, followed by high volume sell-off.

5. Moving Averages (Estimated)

• 50-hour EMA: Rising, but price has corrected back to this zone. First significant test as support.
• 200-hour EMA: Far below, turning up, but likely near $9.4–$9.6 — potential pullback magnet.
• MA Crossover: No major new golden/death cross—momentum is stalling at local highs.

6. Fibonacci Retracement (Latest Major Move)

• Retracement from $6.0 (April Low) to $12.38 (May 13 High):
  • 38.2%: ~$10.0
  • 50%: ~$9.2
  • Current price ($10.20): Just above the 38.2% level, which often acts as trend-continuation support during uptrends. If broken, deeper retracement likely.

7. Order Flow and Liquidity Context

• Distribution/Absorption at Highs: Absorptive sell volume at $11+ area, indicating larger players exiting/reducing.
• No Continuation: No follow-through on previous strong breakout, hinting at reversal potential or at least a range/trap zone.

8. Sentiment/Behavioral Context

• Whipsaw Risk: The rapid progression from $9.6 → $11.15 and back to $10.2 suggests aggressive profit taking and high leverage liquidations—market is nervous.
• Fear/Greed: Likely shifted from greed to fear in the short run due to failed breakout.

Final Synthesis & 24-Hour Forecast

Given the explosive move higher and subsequent high-volume rejection from $11+, price has failed to recapture/maintain that level, turning back to $10.2 and potentially breaking short-term structure. Distribution signals, double-top intraday patterns, and declining momentum indicate more downside (at least in the short term) is probable before a base is rebuilt.

• Expect further chop and attempts to bounce at $10.00, but a test of $9.70–$9.50 is likely in the next 12–24 hours.
• Only a quick and strong recapture of $10.45–$10.60 would invalidate this bearish scenario.

Most technical signals currently point towards at least a tactical, short-term downside move.

---

Techniques Used

• Trend/Price Action Analysis
• Volume Spread Analysis (VSA)
• Momentum Estimation (RSI, Stochastic)
• Support/Resistance Mapping
• Pattern Recognition (Double Top, Doji)
• Moving Averages
• Fibonacci Retracement
• Liquidity and Order Flow Context
• Sentiment and Behavioral Observation

---

Conclusion: Short-term bias is bearish. Look for downside continuation and sell into failed rallies.