1. Price Action & Trend Analysis

Looking first at the daily chart data from late February through May 25, 2025, we observe several key phases in ORDI's price evolution:

• Uptrend (Late Feb to Early March): A powerful rally from ~$10.6 to above $13 before a sharp reversal. This marks a significant distribution top, as seen by high volumes and a failure to push higher despite fresh highs.
• Prolonged Downtrend (Early March to Early April): The price failed to reclaim $13 and dropped steadily to sub-$6, confirming a bearish structure punctuated by high-volume sell days (notably on drops through support, classic distribution days). The strong sell-off formed an initial base in early April.
• Accumulation/Base (April 2 to April 19): The price ranged mainly between $5.9 and $7, indicating phase A to B of accumulation. Volume tapered, suggesting sellers were exhausted, while occasional upswings signaled early accumulation.
• Recovery & Reaccumulation (Mid-April to Early May): A recovery above $7.7, with a staircase-like advance to $9.2—this is a classic reaccumulation zone. We further notice two significant buying waves (May 8–12 and May 13 surge) on much higher-than-average volume, breaking above previous resistance, signaling strong institution interest.
• Recent Volatility/Supply Test (Mid to Late May): The substantial reversal off $13.4 (May 14) with a sharp sell-off and high volume (distribution), tumbling to $9.5, followed last week by attempts to reclaim higher ground ($11.2 on May 22–23), but recent candles show rejection and weakness, with the most recent print at $9.77 showing a long red candle and declining hourly lows.

2. Intraday & Microstructure (Hourly, May 24-25)

• Failed Rally/Distribution: The intraday chart from late May 24 into May 25 shows a failed attempt to break $11 during the Asian/early European session (not held, sharp rejection), followed by a series of lower highs and lower lows. The breakdown below $10.6 was decisive, and subsequent bounces were weak.
• Descending Channel: Price structure forms a clear descending channel. Attempts to reverse near $10 failed repeatedly, while moves lower (down to $9.54) have not met strong buyer absorption.
• Volume: Increased sell-side volume accompanies breakdowns, suggesting persistent supply outpacing demand.

3. Technical Indicators

• Simple Moving Averages: The price is currently well below what would be its 20, 50, and 200-day SMAs (est. at $10.2, $10.8, and $11.4, respectively), confirming a bearish trend. The 20/50 SMA cross is negative; moving averages are bearishly aligned.
• RSI: While exact values are unavailable, the oscillations around persistent lows and failed rallies indicate the RSI would be sub-50, probably near 35, supporting bearish momentum with no sign yet of classic oversold bounce.
• MACD: The histogram flips negative (inferred from persistent lower closes); the MACD line would be under the signal, confirming a sell trend.
• Bollinger Bands: The price is hugging the lower band, showing expanding volatility and strong downside momentum—a breakdown signal rather than mean reversion.
• VWAP (intraday): The intraday price spent almost the entire period below the hourly VWAP, confirming institutions are distributing.

4. Candlestick Patterns

• Recent Daily Candles: We see back-to-back large-bodied bearish candles, failed intraday bounce attempts, and little lower wick, indicating continued pressure.
• Micro Patterns (Hourly): No meaningful bullish engulfing or reversal candles; instead, consistent supply on every pop.

5. Volume Profile & Order Flow

• Support/Resistance: Major support at $9.00 (tested multiple times) and major resistance near $10.60. Price is at $9.77, closer to support but with sellers repeatedly overwhelming buyers at this zone.
• Order Flow: Each thrust lower is met with volume expansion, a sign of strong sellers. Buy demand dries up quickly after slight bounces.

6. Fibonacci Retracements

• Bearish Retrace Complete: The up-move from $5.9 to $13.45 (April–May) is now retraced well to the 78.6% (around $7.1), recent bounces failed at the 38.2% (~$10.6); price is currently sandwiched under the 50% retracement mark, mathematically favoring further retracement.

7. Elliott Wave Structure

• Wave Count: The prior rally is five-waves up; the post-peak action denotes an ongoing ABC correction. The current wave looks like C down, with no evidence of reversal completion.

8. Momentum & Sentiment

• Momentum: All indicators show negative momentum persisting. Failed attempts to reclaim $10/10.6 show supply dominance. Sentiment is increasingly bearish among short-term traders as confirmed by orderflow and volume spikes on red candles.

9. Long-Term Context & Risk

• Potential Washout: There is a risk of a further liquidity sweep targeting stops below $9, while the next logical support zone is between $8.5 and $9.0 based on the late March base.
• Reversal Risks: True reversal would require a break and hold above $10.25 (short-term) and $11.3 (mid-term), which currently seems unlikely given the immediate supply structure and lack of bullish divergences.

Conclusion/Prediction

Given the pronounced downtrend, series of lower highs/lows, persistent supply, failed rallies, negative momentum signals, and high-volume distribution, the bears are in clear control. While the price isn't far from a potential support zone (just above $9), there are no technical signs of strong buyer accumulation or a forming bottom. The technical case is for lower prices in the next 24 hours, with a high probability the $9.00 area will be tested or even breached as stops are swept.

Trade Recommendation

Position: Sell (Short Position)

• Open Price: Look to open a short position on the next minor bounce to maximize risk/reward—ideally near previous intraday resistance at $9.90 (if available). If the bounce does not materialize, entries at $9.77 are still acceptable but less optimal.
• Take Profit (Close Price): Aim to take profit at $9.10, just above the major March/April support, capturing the likely selloff while staying above where large buyers might briefly step in.

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Risk Management: Protect the position with a stop-loss above $10.25, where a close above would indicate potential reversal.

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Final Note

Unless there is a dramatic bullish reversal with high volume reclaiming $10.25, the technical setup remains bearish with pressure toward lower levels.