ORDI Price Chart Technical Analysis (2025-05-30)

Step 1: Long-term Trend Analysis

• Daily Candlestick Structure: The broader trend from March shows a persistent downtrend from early March highs at $13+ to the current level below $9. There are extended periods of lower highs and lower lows.
• Trendline: Drawing a trendline from the March peak ($13.49, 3/2) through successive lower highs, price has remained below each major resistance point, confirming a persistent bearish trend.
• Volume Profile: Early May saw increased volatility and volume (notably May 10-13, May 18, May 23) aligning with local tops and heavy rejections, confirming seller dominance after rallies.

Step 2: Medium-term (2-week) Structure

• Failed Bull Attempts: Since mid-May, several bullish spikes (e.g., 5/10, 5/13, 5/18, 5/21, 5/23) saw swift rejection above $11, with rapid declines on large volume, suggesting distribution rather than accumulation.
• Recent Support Turns Resistance: Floor at $10.10–$10.40 repeatedly tested as support (5/26–5/29), then broken decisively today.
• Current Price: $8.86 has not been seen since the strong May rally.

Step 3: Short-term (Intraday) Trend

• Hourly Candles (5/29–5/30): Each bullish move above $10 got sold off by the hour. Notably, a break from $10.42 at 14:00 UTC to $8.98 at 16:00, then failed recovery attempts.
• Volume Spike: Large candles on increasing sell volume at 16:00 pointed to liquidation or stop triggers.
• Lower Lows & Lower Highs: The price continues making lower lows (now at $8.83) and lower highs ($9.04–$9.10 rejection range).

Step 4: Technical Indicators

• RSI (Estimated from price action): After repeated failures at $10–$11 and this sharp sell-off, the RSI would likely be in the 25–35 range (short-term oversold but not at reversal extremes). No major bullish divergence is present, given new lows on hourly candles.
• Moving Averages: 20, 50, 200 EMA (based on last 30+ days) would all align in bearish order—with the 20EMA well below the 50EMA and 200EMA, and price breaking below all averages.
• MACD Oscillator (approximate): Likely negative, with histogram bars elongating as the bearish momentum accelerates.
• Bollinger Bands: Price is hugging the bottom band after a strong expansion in volatility, with no mean reversion signal yet—trend following setups will favor shorts.

Step 5: Chart Pattern Recognition

• Head & Shoulders / Lower Highs: Multiple attempts to reclaim $11–$12 failed, forming a broad topping pattern from mid-May. More recently, a bear flag broke down after the $10.45–$10.75 zone failed (5/29–5/30), projecting $8.70–$8.50 as a measured move target.
• Gap and Collapse: The swift move from $10.4 area to sub-$9 indicates capitulation—a typical precursor to further downside before a meaningful bounce.

Step 6: Orderflow and Volume Analysis

• No Strong Buy Absorption: Even at current lows, volume is not picking up sharply. No evidence of aggressive bid absorption or a bullish reversal setup.
• Liquidations and Stop Runs: High volume on the break below recent support signals possible forced selling—potentially more stops below $8.70 and $8.50.

Step 7: Support/Resistance Levels

• Immediate resistance: $9.10–$9.25 (recent rejection), $10.00 (psychological, former support)
• Immediate support: $8.70 (next local low), then $8.20 (late-March low)

Step 8: Risk Assessment

• Downside Momentum: Given the magnitude of the breakdown, short-term dead cat bounces are possible, but price action is structurally bearish.
• Data-Driven Conclusion: With no bullish divergences, failed attempts to hold support, and strong volume confirmation, the dominant trade is with the trend: Sell/Short.

Step 9: Entry & Exit Plan

Sell Entry: Optimal fill is on a small bounce post-liquidation, targeting $8.95 to $9.05 (intraday minor resistance). But current levels ($8.86) remain attractive for opening a position if immediate move materialises.

Target (Take Profit): Next reasonable support is at $8.20. This is a conservative exit before the March low ($8.04).

Combining All Tools

• Trend, Structure, Momentum, and Volume: All signs point to short continuation, with any bounce offering improved entry. Risk: A rapid reclaim above $9.40–$9.50 (and especially $10) invalidates short thesis.

---

SUMMARY:

• Persistent downtrend, failed bullish attempts, high-volume liquidation, and clear break of major support all signal further downside. There is no clear sign yet of a reversal or bottom formation. Targeting further movement down to $8.20 before next assessment, with stop loss management above $9.50 recommended for strict risk control.

---

Position: Sell/Short ORDI at $8.86 with take profit at $8.20