ORDI Price Analysis – 2025-06-12

Step 1: Trend & Price Structure Assessment

Looking at the daily closes, ORDI has moved from a high near $13.47 on May 14th to the current $8.15. The dominant intermediate trend from late May was sharply bearish after failing to break above $11.25 on May 28-29, with a massive breakdown on May 30 to $8.18, followed by weak recovery attempts unable to retake $9.61 (notably June 10). After that, each bounce was met with heavy selling, and the price is currently making new local lows.

In the latest daily prints, we observe clear lower highs and lower lows, plus significant volume on major down days (e.g., May 30, June 5, June 12). This confirms the prevailing bear momentum.

Step 2: Price Action & Candlestick Patterns

• June 12 closes at $8.15, the lowest close since the May crash.
• The intraday chart for June 12 shows a systematic selloff throughout the day, with each attempt to rally met with immediate rejection (see the repeated fades from $8.69-$8.79 back to $8.50s and then $8.33 and, finally, to today’s print at $8.15).
• Earlier, on June 10-11, there were efforts to reclaim $9.15-$9.61, but the reversals were rapid and high volume indicating distribution at those levels.
• There are few wicks indicating demand stepping in at lows – most closes come near or at session lows, confirming panic or forced selling.

Step 3: Support/Resistance Mapping

• Major resistance: $8.70-$8.80 (intraday supply built on June 12), $9.15-$9.60 (failed recovery zone June 9-11), $10.45-$10.75 (major breakdown zone late May).
• Immediate support: There’s a minor round number at $8.00, then previous support at $7.91 (June 5 close), and more solid around $7.55 (April 30 low). Farther support at $7.10 and $6.98 (April swing lows).

Step 4: Moving Averages and Momentum

• 10-day and 21-day EMAs likely above current price (around $8.8 and $9.5, approx.), sloping downward, confirming bear control.
• RSI (estimate): Given persistent lower lows and little upward retracement, RSI likely falling below 35, possibly approaching oversold, but not signaling momentum divergence yet. Strong downtrends can remain oversold for extended periods.
• MACD: Bearish cross confirmed after the May dump, with histogram increasing negative momentum. Given the lack of bullish divergence or flattened MACD, there is no sign of reversal.

Step 5: Volume Analysis

• The largest daily volumes coincide with trap rallies (May 18, May 21, May 23, June 5, June 10-11) and crash days, indicating big players are exiting, not building positions.
• No evidence of capitulation yet – volume is lower on these new local lows, suggesting steady, controlled selling, not final panic.

Step 6: Volatility & ATR

• Daily ranges have expanded (7-10% swings), typical for exhaustion phases, but recent days are tightening slightly as the price approaches round number and prior support. Prospective breakdown if $8 fails, with increased risk of acceleration toward $7.90 or lower.

Step 7: Fibonacci Levels

• Measure from the May 14 high (~$13.47) to the June 5 swing low ($7.91):
  • 38.2% retracement: ~$9.43 (recent failed rally zone)
  • 61.8% retracement: ~$10.84 (major breakdown area)
• Price currently under the 0% level ($7.91) support; breaking it can unleash further downside.

Step 8: Pattern Analysis

• No reversal patterns (no hammer, dragonfly, or bullish engulfing candles).
• Series of bear flags on 4H/1H chart, each resolving lower, especially June 11-12.
• Intraday, unsuccessful retests of $8.40, $8.25 resistance confirm heavy supply.

Step 9: Sentiment & Market Context

• Recent bounce attempts are rejected, no fundamental news to support recovery. Liquidity appears thin, with sellers dominating.
• General crypto market on risk-off after May's volatility (assuming broader context), reducing appetite for weakly trending altcoins.

Step 10: Composite Positioning

Probability of immediate relief bounce is low. The bias is for continuation lower, with $8.00 as likely short-term support (potential minor bounce), but $7.90 and $7.55 as likely targets if broken.

Trade Recommendation: “Sell (Short Position)”

Given the technical breakdown, negative momentum, failed recoveries, clear supply overhead and absence of any bottoming signals, a short position with an open near current breakdown levels is optimal.

• Best entry will be on minor recovery toward $8.20–8.25, but even at $8.15 is valid as trend is confirmed.
• Target to cover at prior local support around $7.55 for profit-taking (as some bid may emerge at prior lows).
• Conservative stop above $8.50 (recent minor resistance) – not shown here, but for proper risk management.

Summary: ORDI remains in a strong downtrend, with little signal for reversal. Trade setup is for a short position on minor rallies, aiming for a move toward $7.55 over the next 24 hours as selling pressure persists and market structure breaks to fresh lows.