Comprehensive Technical Analysis for ORDI – 24H Forecast (As of 2025-06-14)

1. Price Structure & Trend Analysis

Daily Chart

• Medium-term Structure: ORDI peaked above $13.47 (2025-05-14); since then, price action shows persistent lower highs and lower lows, confirming a clear downtrend from mid-May onward.
• Recent Action: After a steep drop from $11.26 (2025-05-22) to $8.17 (2025-05-30), a weak bounce saw prices recover to ~$9.61 (2025-06-10), but sellers quickly regained control. Current price ($7.90) is near recent multi-week support.
• Short-term Structure: Last 48 hours show consolidation; no strong attempt for a reversal, candles show long upper wicks (selling pressure).

2. Support & Resistance Levels

• Support:
  • $7.80–$7.90 (recent local lows and current pricing)
  • $7.55 (2025-04-30 low, significant on volume dips)
  • $7.00 (psychological + historical support)
• Resistance:
  • $8.10–$8.20 (short-term recovery failed here)
  • $8.50 (minor swing high 2025-06-07)
  • $9.00+ (gap resistance, prior breakdown)

3. Volume Profile & Market Sentiment

• Volume Decline: Volume dropping over the last several sessions after the large capitulation on 2025-05-30. The lack of volume on the most recent small bounces signals weak buyer commitment.
• Heavy Selling: Multiple high-volume sell-offs ($13.47→$9.50; $10.94→$8.17) confirm large trader exits and disinterest above $9.00.

4. Volatility & Momentum Indicators

• ATR (Average True Range): Volatility remains moderately high but trending downward as consolidation emerges after a large downward move—a textbook bear-flag/pause before continuation pattern.
• RSI (14) (estimated from price action): Likely sits between 35–40 (oversold zone tested, but no positive divergence nor sharp reversal).
• MACD: MACD histogram would still be negative, no bullish crossover in sight, confirming sellers dominate momentum.
• Stochastic: On or near oversold but refuses to cross up—signals trend exhaustion but not reversal.

5. Moving Averages

• Short-term (8, 21 EMA): Both above current price, sloping downward. 8-period EMA ~$8.10; 21 EMA around $8.6. Price consistently rejected near these moving averages.
• Medium/long-term (50, 200 SMA): (Estimated) Both >$9.50, marking a structural bear market.

6. Chart Patterns

• Bear-flag formation: After the sharp May–June drop, prices are moving sideways/barely upwards—classic for bear markets before another leg down.
• Failed Double-bottom (late-May recovery): The bounce off $8.17 (late May) did not create a sustainable reversal, resulting in a lower high, not a trend change.
• Descending channel: Each attempt to break above $9.00 has failed; slope implies continuation toward lower supports.

7. Order Book/Market Microstructure (Based on Last 24H)

• Intraday Price Range: Oscillation between $7.80 and $8.12 with most intrahour closes near the low. The inability to hold any gains on hourly candles or spikes reinforces bearish microstructure.
• No significant bullish spikes: Volumes associated with green candles are muted compared to red candle sell-offs.

8. Sentiment and External Influences

• No evidence of major reversal catalyst: No news-driven reversal, and macro crypto remains neutral/weak in June 2025.

9. Elliott Wave Context

• Recent price action satisfies a 5-wave impulsive decline from $13.47. Current move can be read as a choppy ABC correction (minor), with another impulse down likely.

10. Risk/Reward & Trading Strategy Synthesis

• Probability: Given the multitude of failed rallies, persistent downward sloping MAs, exhausted and sideways momentum indicators, and weakening support, the path of least resistance is lower.
• Trade Setup: Ideal is to open a short (Sell) position on a weak bounce toward the $8.00–$8.05 area. Stop loss can be placed above very recent intraday resistance of $8.20 (or EMAs), with a profit target toward prior support in the $7.55-$7.60 zone.
• If breakdown accelerates: Next daily support is as low as $7.00.

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Summary of Prediction

• Probability of breakdown/weakness remains high for next 24 hours.
• A brief bounce to $8.00–$8.05 is a good shorting opportunity.
• Targets: $7.55–$7.60 (where prior volume clusters and buyers may return for a tactical bounce).
• Risk Management: Tight stop above $8.20 (or 2% above open). Do not chase entry if price dumps fast; only open on bounce/fade.

Final Signal: SELL (Short Position).

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Detailed Table: Indicator Signals

Indicator	Signal
Trend (Daily)	Bearish
RSI (14)	Weak/Oversold
MACD	Bearish
Volume	Bearish
Pattern	Bear Flag
MA/EMA	Below all
Pattern Target	$7.55–$7.60

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Optimal Entry: $8.00 (if bounce occurs), Close Target: $7.55 (prior swing support)

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