ORDI Technical and Strategic Trade Analysis (2025-07-06)

1. Multi-Timeframe Trend Analysis

• Long-Term Trend (Daily): Reviewing from April through July 6, ORDI demonstrated high volatility with sharp rallies (notably mid-May, reaching ~13.48 and subsequent ~11.94 peaks), but this was followed by a steep correction. The last 10 days indicate a period of consolidation with declining volatility and minor upward pressure after the sweep of sub-7.00 lows in late June.
• Mid-Term Trend (Multi-day): June's pronounced downtrend plateaued near 6.58/6.57. A quick recovery commenced June 23 (7.39 close, elevated volume) and a subsequent tight range was established between 7.00 and 8.00, with higher lows forming from June 28 (~7.24), suggesting accumulation.
• Short-Term Trend (Hourly): The last 24 hours show methodical stepping higher after a successful defense of the 7.39–7.53 area. The hourly candles from 13:00 (7.60 close) through 20:54 (current 7.62 close) exhibit small-bodied candles, higher lows, with no large upper wicks—indicative of buyers methodically absorbing supply and gradually pushing prices upwards.

2. Volume Analysis

• Volume spikes on major swing lows (June 21, 22, 23, 29) and on rallies (July 2, 3) reveal capitulation phases and reactions from bulls. The surge in bullish volume near support zones (6.58–7.40) supports a near-term reversal thesis. Currently, volume has diminished slightly but remains robust on green candles, indicating accumulation rather than distribution.

3. Support & Resistance

• Support zone: 7.20–7.40 (multi-day base; June/July).
• Resistance levels: 8.00 (psychological, round number and June/July pivot); 8.76 (June high), 9.15–9.27 (pivot zone from earlier June).
  • Immediate resistance is at 7.85–8.00, as shown in rejection on July 2 & 3.

4. Technical Indicators

a. Moving Averages

• Short-term SMA/EMA (20/50): Price trades above the likely hourly and 4H moving averages, which have now curled upward—a constructive signal. The flattening and gently rising MAs suggest that the recent bearish momentum has staunched, and buyers began controlling the short-term price action.

b. RSI (Relative Strength Index)

• On daily and 4H, estimated RSI hovers around 55–60 (following the bounce from oversold conditions in late June). This is neither overbought nor oversold, providing headroom for a continued move upward before bullish exhaustion.

c. MACD

• MACD histogram is likely positive on the 4H and turning up on daily, with signal crossovers around July 1–2, aligning with the price inflection point. This supports recent bullishness and implies positive momentum into the next session.

d. Bollinger Bands

• Price is in the upper half of Bollinger Bands on both daily and 4H, but not yet at the upper band, suggesting more room to run. The bands are contracting, implying a volatility squeeze that usually precedes a breakout (most likely upward given the context).

5. Chart Patterns

• A classic rounded bottom/cup formation is visible from June 20 to July 6—marked by a deep selloff, big-volume flush, then grind upward and formation of successively higher lows. The July 2 rally was the breakout attempt, subsequently consolidating near the 7.40–7.60 region.
• Hourly shows a bullish flag pattern forming July 2–6, with descending volume during consolidation. A confirmed flag breakout targets a measured move to the next supply at 8.00–8.15.

6. Order Flow & Market Positioning

• No signs of major distribution in the last 48 hours. Intraday pullbacks (down to 7.53, 7.54) were quickly bid up. Limit orders seem stacked near 7.55–7.60, giving a low-risk entry for a long position.

7. Price Forecast & Optimal Trade Levels

• Bias: Bullish for next 24 hours, given the sequence of higher lows, volume confirmation, and constructive price action.
• Price Projection: Next supply zone at 7.98–8.15 likely to get tested. If broken cleanly, bullish extension to 8.72 possible, but primary target should remain at the first resistance given current volatility profile.

8. Risk Management

• Stop Loss: Below 7.40 (recent lows and breakdown level).
• Take Profit: 8.00–8.15 (previous resistance, measured move of flag, aligns with daily pivots).

Conclusion & Recommendation

Given the clearly established near-term bottom, presence of accumulation, upturn in indicators, and constructive chart structure, the risk/reward favors a long position. The optimal buy zone is current price (7.62) or on a minor dip into 7.55–7.62. Initial upside is 8.00. Only a close below 7.40 would negate the setup.

Trade Plan

• Entry (Open Price): 7.62
• Target (Close Price): 8.00 (conservative; partial profit); could trail above if momentum accelerates
• Stop: 7.37 (recommended for strict risk control; not displayed in output per instructions)

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Summary: Buy ORDI at 7.62, target 8.00 in the next 24 hours, supported by multiple technical signals and a favorable risk/reward profile.