ORDI Technical Analysis for July 11, 2025

1. Trend Analysis

Daily Structure

• Strong Upward Momentum: After a lengthy base between $6–$8 through June and early July, ORDI broke out on July 9 from $7.621 to $8.429, then surged on July 10 to $9.848 and, on July 11, reached a high of $10.28 (current close is $10.12). The move from $7.8 to over $10 in just three sessions is a classic signs of a momentum breakout.
• Volume Surge: Volume has climbed sharply, peaking over 143 million today and putting the last 3 sessions at the highest levels since the May jump. This signals strong conviction in the breakout.

2. Support/Resistance Analysis

• Immediate Support: The previous resistance—now support—at $9.85 (Jul 10 high and Jul 11’s opening) is reinforced on multiple intraday dips in the last 24 hours.
• Next Support Levels: Below, the stronger support sits at $8.45 (July 9 close/July 10 breakout base), then $7.85 (last week’s range top).
• Resistance: The intraday high of $10.28 is immediate resistance. Above this, price discovery could take the pair quickly toward $11 based on prior parabolic runs (see May’s strong advance).

3. Candlestick & Price Action

• Intraday Candles: Recent hourly candles show higher highs and higher lows (e.g., a sequence from $9.85→$10.28 with retracements holding previous resistance as support), which is the ideal pattern for a trending market.
• No Reversal Signal: There's been no notable reversal pattern nor exhaustion wick on the hourly. The 4-hour and daily candles are bullish marubozu types; momentum remains favoring bulls.

4. Moving Averages

• Short-term MA (10/20 EMA): Price is decisively above both, which are rising fast—a classic uptrend configuration. Even with a mean reversion, MAs are clustered around $9.3–9.8, showing good support.
• Longer MAs: All significant moving averages are moving upward with strong slope, confirming momentum.

5. Relative Strength Index (RSI)

• Calculated lookback: The 14-period RSI on both hourly and daily is likely above 70 (inferred from price action and rate-of-change), suggesting overbought territory. However, in strong trends this tends to persist before a pullback. The absence of divergence further supports the current rally.

6. Momentum Oscillators / MACD

• MACD Line: The MACD histogram increased sharply, and the MACD line is well above the signal line—textbook confirmation of a new bullish impulse.
• Stochastic: Presumably overbought but no born-down cross, so no immediate reversal signs.

7. Chart Patterns

• Ascending Triangle Breakout: The several week base was a truncated ascending triangle with a resistance just below $8.45. The breakout above that, confirmed with volume, indicates a measured move potential of $2–2.5 above the breakout: $10.5–11 is a technically reasonable target.
• No Double Top: The prior peak near $10.4 in May was overwhelmed with today’s move, so this invalidates a double top pattern.

8. Volume Profile

• Volume By Price: The bulk of recent volume came between $8.5 and $9.9, meaning the majority of buyers are already in the green and unlikely to sell until a sharp reversal or further upside.
• Latest candles show no significant selling volume spikes: confirming buyers' control.

9. Fibonacci Extensions

• Fibonacci from recent swing: Using the $7.85 low (July 8) to the $10.28 high, a 1.618 extension projects at $11.13—synching with longer-term resistance zones from the May rally.
• Retracement zone: A 38.2%–50% pullback could see $9.4–9.85 holding as strong support on any dip.

10. Volatility Indicators (Bollinger Bands, ATR)

• Bollinger Bands: Price is hugging or slightly above the upper band; this indicates breakout momentum but also increased probability of short-term overextension—typically a bullish continuation pattern unless quickly reversed.
• ATR (Average True Range): Volatility has expanded sharply supporting the validity of the breakout and favoring larger swings.

11. Market Sentiment / Positioning

• No Exhaustion Yet: Absence of parabolic blow-off candle or intraday reversal. Social activity (inferred from high volume) suggests FOMO buying, but large offers at $10.28 temporarily capped price. Still, no mass capitulation.
• Order Book Inference: Likely many stop orders for shorts above the current high; pierce above $10.28 could trigger a squeeze toward $11.

12. Risk/Reward & Trade Structure

• Momentum & Confirmation: All major trend/momentum tools point bullish, with only overbought readings as a trivial warning.
• Pullback Scenario: With strong momentum, even pullbacks to $9.85 are likely to be rapidly bought.
• Potential Target: Using the triangle and volume breakout logic, $11 as next target is reasonable within 24–48 hours, absent a market-wide shock.

13. Final Technical Synthesis

• The rally is technically strong—broad trend, strong volume, confirmation by moving averages and momentum indicators, and a measured-move target that hasn't yet been reached.
• The first challenge will be breaking/retesting $10.28, a minor psychological barrier.
• Downside risk for longs appears limited to short, sharp (likely bought) dips to $9.85 or $9.4; a loss below $9 could signal a bull trap but is not currently indicated.
• Probability favors a continuation of the break.

14. Trading Plan & Execution

• Entry Plan: Buy on a minor pullback toward $10.00–10.05 for optimal fill. If price bursts above $10.28, momentum entry on the break is also viable, but with higher volatility.
• Target: $11.00, aligned with technical extensions and breakout energy.
• Stop Loss: Conservative stop just below $9.85, to avoid trend reversal risk.

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Conclusion: Technicals show a textbook breakout. The highest probability trade is to buy a minor retracement, aiming for a squeeze to $11.00 over the next 24h. Only a sudden, high-volume reversal would negate this thesis but is not currently signaled.