ORDI (ORDI) 24-Hour Technical Analysis and Price Prediction

Step 1: Trend Analysis

Looking at the daily chart for the past three months, ORDI has exhibited a significant uptrend from $6.39 (April) to a peak of $13.47 in mid-May. Since hitting that top on May 14, the price has pulled back sharply and entered a broad sideways, choppy consolidation ranging between $7.00 and $11.00. Notably, the latest rally (July 2–11) saw a strong move from $7.98 to $10.29, indicating renewed buying interest. However, the price failed to hold above $10, and the last two daily candles show long upper wicks (July 10–11), suggesting strong selling pressure at higher levels.

Step 2: Volume Analysis

Volume spiked massively during previous upswings (e.g., May 12-15, >170M daily) and also on sharp selloffs, indicating active participation on both bullish and bearish legs. For the most recent push (July 9–11), the volume rose sharply (with the July 11 daily volume at 137M), showing active battle between bulls and bears at resistance.

Step 3: Pattern Recognition and Price Structure

• Ascending Action: After a local bottom at $6.58 in late June, ORDI started printing higher lows ($7.06 → $7.23 → $7.85 → $8.42) with bullish breakouts above $8.00 resistance, showing reversal structure.
• Key Resistance: The $9.80–$10.30 level coincides with both major price pivots (multiple failed attempts, e.g., May 16, May 28, July 10–11) and high-volume rejection zones, making it a formidable supply area.
• Support Zone: $8.15–$8.40 (previous resistance on May 1–9, now tested as support on June 30–July 4).

Step 4: Volatility and Momentum

• ATR (Average True Range): Recent ATR is high ($0.60–$0.90/day), consistent with the large daily swings, e.g., July 10–11.
• RSI (Relative Strength Index) (24-hour hand calculation): RSI peaked near 72 on July 10 (overbought), with a dip to ~60 currently, indicating momentum loss from overheated territory. The quick reversal from overbought is usually short-term bearish.
• MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The gap between MACD line and Signal line has peaked and is narrowing on the 4h chart equivalent (from +0.9 to +0.3), suggesting bull exhaustion and risk of bearish crossover.

Step 5: Order Flow and Candle Structure

• Lower Time Frame Structure: The July 12 hourly data shows a consistent pattern of lower highs and lower lows from 00:00 to 20:54, with repeated failures to clear $9.33/$9.42 and a new low at $8.97 during 15:00–16:00. Recent candles close near their lows, indicating sellers in control. There is a lack of high-volume bullish reversal at the current price.

Step 6: Moving Averages

• 20-period SMA (Daily): The price is slightly above the 20SMA (~$8.85) but losing upward momentum.
• 50-period SMA (Daily): Immediate resistance at $9.70–$9.80; 50SMA is currently being tested as price hovers right below.

Step 7: Fibonacci Retracement

• Measured from May high ($13.47) to June low ($6.58):
  • 38.2% retracement: ~$9.22 (current price, acting as resistance)
  • 50% retracement: ~$10.03 (recent rally top)
  • 61.8% retracement: ~$10.85

The price is currently at the 38.2% level; failure to reclaim and hold above this zone typically leads to a retest of the lower retracement bands.

Step 8: Ichimoku Cloud (Daily)

• Cloud Span: Chikou span (lagging line) is below price, but cloud base is flat at ~$9.70, increasing chances of rejection and a fall toward the Kijun ($8.55). Strong resistance above.

Step 9: Sentiment and Market Context

• Bearish Divergence: Despite a recent price spike on July 10, momentum (RSI, MACD) is lagging, suggesting hidden bearish divergence.
• No Clear Value Buyer Absorption: There is no evidence of strong defensive buying at $9.17—rather, a series of lower highs and lower lows are dominant intraday.

Step 10: Synthesis and Final Prediction

Combining all techniques:

• Failed breakout above $10.00 (psychological level).
• Lower high and loss of intraday support.
• Overbought technicals (RSI, MACD) now in reversal.
• No major accumulation at current price.
• Fibonacci, Ichimoku, and horizontal S/R stack above as resistance.

24h Prediction: A test of $8.60–$8.40 is likely within the next 24 hours as sellers exploit recent exhaustion among bulls.

---

Final Decision

• Position: Sell (Short Position)
• Open Price: $9.17–$9.18 (current spot, with tight entry as there may be a minor bounce at $9.20–$9.25)
• Target/Close Price (Take Profit): $8.40 (fib/kijun support, minor psychological level, prior consolidation zone)
• Stop Loss (not required but prudent): If considering stop-loss management, >$9.75 (above local resistance pivot)