ORDI (ORDI) Technical Analysis – As of 2025-08-01

Step-by-Step Detailed Breakdown

1. Market Structure & Price Action (Daily & Intraday)

• Recent Trend: ORDI peaked at ~12.64 (2025-05-13), declined, consolidated, and exhibited a sharp drop from the $11-12 zone to sub-$9 in late July.
• Current Price: $8.83 (2025-08-01 20:55 UTC)
• Intraday Volatility: Last 24h range is $8.74 - $9.19. Price steadily declined from $9.15 to $8.83 with lower highs and lower lows.
• Volume: Recent volume has been declining compared to the previous week, and there was notable capitulation on the drops (deep red days toward $8.8, e.g., 86M volume most recently vs avg >100M during top volatility).

2. Support and Resistance Levels

• Support:
  • $8.75 - $8.80: Reacted several times on the hourly chart.
  • $8.15 - $8.20: Last strong daily support (early June, post-massive selloff bounce zone).
• Resistance:
  • $9.15 - $9.20: Short-term resistance (former support, now flipped post recent breakdown).
  • $9.50: Psychological barrier, previously support mid-July.
  • $10.00 (round number/failed zone in late July, intersecting with breakdown high volume node).

3. Candlestick Patterns

• Daily: Last 3 daily candles are bearish, with large upper wicks (selling into strength/failed bounces), confirm distribution.
• Hourly: Last few candles are mostly long-bodied, closing at or near low, suggesting strong intraday selling.
• No reversal patterns yet.

4. Trend Indicators

• Moving Averages (approximated):
  • 20 EMA: Estimated ~$9.60, sloping downward. Price is below, reinforcing ongoing downtrend.
  • 50 EMA: Above both price and 20 EMA, showing bearish cross weeks ago and not yet challenged.
• Price well below key MAs, no signs of mean reversion.

5. Momentum Oscillators (Estimated RSI/Stochastic)

• RSI (Daily): Likely in low-40s, close to oversold, but not exhausted. More downside room.
• Stochastic: Dipping, no bullish crossover or bottoming divergence. Still trending with price.

6. Volume Profile

• High volume nodes:
  • $9.2–$10.2: Bulk of trading in prior moves
  • Current low volumes at $8.8: Suggests thinning liquidity—accelerated moves possible if this zone breaks.
  • Declining volume on down candles: Could indicate some selling pressure is being exhausted, but no evidence of demand reappearing yet.

7. Volatility & ATR (Average True Range)

• ATR is shrinking: Volatility expansion in previous weeks (multiple >$1 daily moves) now compressed to ~$0.40 per day, suggesting a period of range contraction after sharp downside (possible prelude to next impulsive move).

8. Pattern Recognition

• Potential Falling Channel/Wedge: The move from $12 down to $8.8 has slight wedging, but the lower lows are not dramatic—suggests risk of another flush before meaningful reversal.
• No base or accumulation structure detected yet.

9. Orderflow & Market Sentiment

• Consistent selling into daily closes.
• Failed bounces: Any move toward $9.2–$9.4 instantly sold.
• Order block inefficiency below $8.80, implies sharp move if $8.75 breaks.

10. Fibonacci Retracement

• Peak ($12.64, May) to Trough ($6.58, June):
  • 23.6%: ~$8.0 (recent support)
  • 38.2%: ~$9.23 (precisely where recent bounces failed)
  • Price now trading between fib 23.6% and 38.2%—in the weak retracement zone, usually trend continues.

11. Elliott Wave Context (Macro)

• Likely in Wave 5 of large move down, or post-Wave C correction.
• No motive wave up confirmed; price structure favors trend continuation to downside.

12. Risk/Reward & Strategy Synthesis

• Immediate trend: Bearish.
• Hourly and daily both favor more downside.
• No bullish divergence or pattern indicating short-term bottom.
• Liquidity below $8.80 is thin — could easily accelerate toward $8.20 or lower if support fails.

13. Trade Plan

Sell/Short bias favored:

• Optimal entry: Short as close to $8.90 as possible (ideally on a failed bounce towards $8.90-$9.00 intraday).
• Take profit: First target at $8.22 (next strong support, prior bounce base). Conservative traders could take partial profits at $8.50.
• Stop loss: Above $9.22 (recent swing highs; if this breaks, bearish thesis is invalidated short term).

14. Final Synthesis – 24h Outlook

• Short-Term Forecast: High likelihood ORDI will test $8.50, possibly $8.20 within 24 hours, barring any news catalyst. If $8.80 fails on sustained volume, aggressive move toward next supports is imminent.
• Only scenario for a long is a decisive reclaim and hold >$9.20 — which is currently unlikely.

Conclusion: All technical evidence points to a continued bearish move. The most optimal, risk-managed trade is a short at a bounce toward $8.88–$8.90 with profit target at $8.22.

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Disclaimer: This is a technical-only analysis and does not factor in upcoming news or fundamental developments.