Step-by-Step Technical Analysis of ORDI as of 2025-08-04

1. Price Action & Trend Analysis

• Recent Price Action: The current price is $9.23, recovering from a recent swing low around $8.50 (from 08-01 to 08-02) and rebounding through $8.75 and $9.00 levels. This follows a sharp sell-off from the $11.6 high (07-27) to sub-$9 levels by the end of July.
• Short-Term Trend: After the sell-off, ORDI formed a rounded bottom between $8.50 and $8.85 (08-01 to early 08-04), then pushed higher on increased volumes as seen from the 16:00-18:00 and 17:00-20:00 08-04 hourly candles.
• Mid-Term Trend: The coin is still below the $10.00-10.50 supply zone (visible throughout July's price action), indicating a post-rally correction and potential establishment of a short-term base.

2. Support & Resistance

• Immediate Support Levels: $9.00 (recent reaction lows and consolidation on 08-04); next support at $8.75-$8.80; major swing support at $8.50.
• Imminent Resistance Levels: $9.35 (intraday high just ahead), then $9.50 (late July consolidation); major resistance is $10.00 (psychological and multiple prior daily highs).

3. Volume Analysis

• Aug 04th data shows increased volume as price moves from $9.08 up to $9.35. The 17:00 hour alone saw volume above 2.6M, triple the average for the day, confirming buying interest on upward moves. The decline from $11.60 to sub-$9.00 in late July saw heavy distribution, but recent bottoming appears to be on lower, declining volume—classic of a possible correction ending phase.

4. Moving Averages (Extrapolated)

• Short-term (5/10-period): On a daily estimation, with recent lows moving upwards, a 5-period MA would be curling higher near $8.95, and a 10-period MA closing in from $9.50. The price crossing above the 5-MA, but still below the 10-MA, suggests a resumption of short-term upward momentum, but with probable resistance approaching at $9.35-$9.50.

5. Oscillators & Momentum Indicators

• RSI (Hypothetical, based on swings): The sharp rebound off $8.50 likely brought RSI up from oversold (20-30) zones to neutral (45-55) as of now, but not yet overbought.
• MACD: The crossover would have triggered in late August 3rd/early August 4th. The positive histogram likely increasing, but overall MACD line still below zero, supporting a relief rally but not a confirmed bull trend reversal yet.
• Stochastic Oscillator: Likely quickly rebounded over the past 24 hours, heading toward 60-70 levels—again suggesting more upside, but possibly topping soon.

6. Chart Patterns & Candlestick Analysis

• Rounded/Inverse Head-and-Shoulders Base: The multi-hour action from August 1st-4th shows a rounded bottom, with right shoulder at $8.90-$8.95, reinforcing support.
• Bullish Engulfing (Intraday): 17:00-18:00 and 19:00-20:00 candles on 08-04 show clear bullish follow-through, with higher closes and long real bodies, suggesting robust buyer participation.

7. Fibonacci Retracement

• Major swing high to low: From $11.65 (07-27) to $8.50 (08-01) gives a key 38.2% retrace near $9.75 and 50% near $10.07 (coincides with major overhead resistance). The price is between the 23.6% and 38.2% retracements now, with room for a move toward $9.50-$9.75 before encountering heavier resistance.

8. Volatility & ATR (Average True Range)

• Recent intraday candles show a range of $0.15-0.20 per hour, wider than the $0.08-0.12 in the days before the bounce—suggests increased volatility, often a prelude to reversals or new trends.

9. Market Structure & Order Flow

• The sequence of higher lows after $8.50 (08-01) and the gradual reclaim of $8.75, $9.00, and now $9.23 signals restored buyer interest. However, the quick bounce suggests late buyers may soon take profits, especially under $9.50.
• Current consolidation just above $9.23 with slight pullbacks bought quickly (see 19:00-20:00 data) implies decent demand, but above $9.35 supply could dominate.

10. Sentiment & Risk Assessment

• After the relief rally from the oversold bottom, market sentiment is cautiously bullish for the next 24 hours, but not yet strong enough to project a breakthrough of major resistances unless volume further accelerates.

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Conclusion & Price Prediction

• Expect further short-term upside due to positive momentum, with potential to test $9.45-$9.50 (resistance cluster and 38.2% Fib level) within the next 24 hours. However, upside is likely capped by profit-taking as the impactful resistance between $9.50 and $10.00 looms. If price fails to clear $9.35-$9.50, a retracement toward immediate support at $9.00 or $8.80 could occur. Downside risk is more limited while above $8.80.
• Actionable Setup: Long (Buy) on a minor pullback, targeting a move toward $9.45-$9.50. Stop-loss if price closes below $8.90.

Final Decision: Buy (Long Position). Wait for a pullback to ~$9.15 before entering, target $9.45 as initial take profit.