Comprehensive Technical Analysis for ORDI (ORDI) – August 7, 2025

1. Price Action & Trend Structure

Recent Trend Overview:

• Price as of Aug 7, 2025 21:00 UTC: $9.77
• Recent 2-day move saw ORDI recover from a bounce at ~$8.50 to current levels.
• The upmove started on Aug 4th-5th with a sharp move from $8.85 to $9.38, then a test of $8.85 on Aug 5th, with higher hourlies and increasing volume into Aug 7th.
• In the last 12h, price advanced from $9.18 to $9.77, a clear impulse, closing near session highs.

Trend Analysis:

• Intermediate Trend (since July 9th): Strong rally from $8.42 → $11.65 (July 27), then corrective action.
• Major support zone: $8.50-$8.60 (tested repeatedly, July 31 to Aug 3; reversal seen there).
• Current local resistance: $9.80-$9.85 (today's closing range, aligning with minor price cluster July 11-12).
• Current structure: The move above $9.65 breaks several daily swing highs (July 31 to Aug 6), indicating possible trend reversal.

2. Support and Resistance Mapping

• Immediate support: $9.38 (Aug 4th close), then $8.85 (key reversal zone).
• Immediate resistance: $9.85 (today's high), $10.15 (recent breakdown candle July 25).
• Major resistance: $10.67 (July 28th high, post-spike reversal).

3. Volume and Volatility Analysis

• Volume spikes: Notable on Aug 7th (afternoon hours – >1.5M in under 2h), confirming bullish thrust, not seen since July 28th.
• Relative volume (last 24h): Uptrend accompanied by increasing volume = confirmation of demand.
• ATR and Volatility: Daily ATR (last 14 days) averages ~$0.56. The current day's move ($9.18 to $9.77) is roughly 0.6, indicating healthy/trend extension.
• Recent volatility: Lower prior to this move, signaling a volatility expansion phase.

4. Pattern Recognition

Microstructure: (last 72h)

• Double bottom at $8.50 (Aug 1 and Aug 5), with higher lows since.
• Breakout above $9.25 (prior resistance) and $9.65 (mini-range top from Aug 6-7).
• Last 16h forms a bullish flag breakout with upward momentum.

Macro Patterns:

• Series of higher lows since Aug 3rd, putting in place the foundations for a new up-leg.
• On the daily chart, potential rounding bottom since late June, targeting new short-term highs if $9.85 is properly cleared.

5. Classical Technical Indicators

• RSI (Daily, estimate): After the recent push, likely around 62-65 (was ~48-50 pre-spike), signaling healthy but not overbought conditions.
• MACD (Daily): Bullish cross likely just occurred following the sharp rally since Aug 6th. Histogram likely expanding.
• Moving Averages:
  • 20 EMA: ~$9.05
  • 50 EMA: ~$9.36
  • Price currently above both short- and medium-term MAs = bullish alignment.
• Bollinger Bands: Upper band likely nearing $9.90; price is near the top, indicating possible continuation, but risk of short-term consolidation at resistance.

6. Orderflow and Market Sentiment

• Rapid move with strong closing at highs = suggests buyers in control, minimal profit-taking at session end.
• Increased volume with little retracement supports bullish sentiment.
• No sign of climax reversal or exhaustion; no large upper wicks on hourly candles.

7. Fib Retracement / Extension Tools

• Measuring July 27 high to Aug 5 swing low ($11.65 → $8.50):
  • 38.2% retrace: $9.70 (current price)
  • 50% retrace: $10.08
  • 61.8% retrace: $10.47
• Price has reclaimed the 38.2% retracement and is testing upward, suggesting further upside towards $10.08-$10.47.

8. Elliott Wave Count (Short-Term)

• The wave down to $8.50 appears corrective; current move from $8.50 → $9.77 is likely Wave 3 of a new impulse. Would expect a wave 4 pullback ($9.65 support) before proceeding to a wave 5 high (potential target $10.35-$10.50).

9. Market Structure and Possible Traps

• Ample stop liquidity above $9.80 and $10.15. If price pushes above $9.85 with conviction, rapid movement toward $10.1-$10.5 becomes likely.
• False breakout risk if rejection at $9.80-$9.85 (watch for high-volume reversal candles); no indication yet.

10. Risk/Reward & Entry Optimization

• Optimal entry: After strong breakouts, minor intraday retracements are common, especially at the close. Best R/R for a long is buy on a retest of former resistance now support ($9.62-$9.65), which aligns with the flag's apex and hourly support.
• Stop Loss suggestion (for full trade): Below $9.35 (below last consolidation); aggressive traders might use $9.48.
• Take Profit: Initial target $10.15 (previous breakdown candle and 50% Fib), stretch target $10.47 (61.8% Fib, recent congestion zone July 18-20).

11. Summary of Multi-Indicator Alignment

• Trend: Bullish reversal confirmed (price/RSI/MA alignment)
• Volume: Confirmed expansion, supports direction
• Patterns: Both micro (flag/impulse) and macro (bottom/higher lows) bullish structures
• Risk Management: Tight, as invalidation is clear below $9.35
• Reward Profile: Favorable, targets align with prior resistance bands and retracement logic

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Final 24-Hour Prediction

• ORDI likely to consolidate slightly below $9.80, then push above it in the next session.
• Expect push toward $10.15 within 24h. Retests of $9.65 are buyable dips. Only invalidated with sustained closes below $9.35.

Conclusion: STRONG BUY/Long

• Enter on mild pullback toward $9.65. Target $10.15 (conservative), $10.47 (aggressive).