ORDI coiled at the golden ratio: primed to break 10.67 and sprint toward 11+

Executive summary

• Bias: Moderately bullish for the next 24 hours. ORDI is pressing just above the 61.8% retracement of the late-July drawdown, riding above short- and medium-term moving averages with improving momentum and constructive intraday structure. Expect a test of 10.65–10.70; a clean break likely opens 10.95–11.10 and potentially 11.25.
• Plan: Buy dips toward VWAP/10.30 area; alternative add-on if breakout above 10.70. Target 11.25 within 24 hours, barring broad-market shocks.

Multi-timeframe context

• Daily trend: After a June low (~6.23–6.69) ORDI trended up into late July (~11.65–12.05 supply), then pulled back to early-August lows (~8.29–8.76). Since Aug 2, price has carved higher lows and higher highs, reclaiming the 20D and likely the 50D moving averages. Structure is a constructive recovery within a broader range (roughly 8.3–12.0).
• Hourly trend (Aug 10): Tight intraday range (approx 9.97–10.67) with higher intraday lows, steady VWAP adherence, and buyers defending the 10.20–10.35 zone. Current price 10.41 sits near the session’s VWAP and above multiple intraday reference levels.

Market structure and key levels

• Supports: 10.34–10.36 (intraday VWAP cluster), 10.22 (14:00 close), 10.10 (hourly pivot/low), 10.00 (psychological), 9.80 (Aug 8 close), 9.62 (daily S/R), 9.38–9.43, 8.85, 8.50–8.76, 8.29 swing low.
• Resistances: 10.65–10.67 (today’s hourly high/July 28 supply), 10.95–11.07 (78.6% retrace/July 20 close), 11.38, 11.65 (July 27 close), 12.05 (July 28 high), 12.64 (May 13 spike high).
• Price action: Clear sequence of higher lows from 8.29 → 8.85 → 9.14 → 9.80 → 10.10–10.22, with price consolidating just beneath a local cap (10.65–10.67). This is classic coil behavior below resistance, with pressure building for a push.

Trend indicators

• Moving averages (daily, approximations):
  • 20D SMA near ~9.9–10.1; price (10.41) above, indicating short-term bullish bias.
  • 50D SMA estimated ~9.3–9.6; price above, reinforcing medium-term positive drift.
  • Slopes: 20D turning up; 50D flattening to up. Bullish short/medium-term stack.
• EMAs (hourly): Price oscillating above 20/50 EMA on most of today’s session; pullbacks have been bought near the 20–50 EMA ribbon, suggesting dip demand.
• ADX (daily, qualitative): Trend strength improving; likely ADX rising into low-20s. This supports emerging trend continuation rather than range fade.

Momentum indicators

• RSI (daily): Likely mid-to-high 50s, below overbought, consistent with room to run toward 11+ without momentum excess.
• RSI (hourly): Overbought near 10.67 earlier, since reset toward neutral while price held firm — a bullish consolidation signal (momentum digestion without price damage).
• MACD (daily): Bullish crossover after the early-August low; histogram positive/expanding modestly, consistent with trend resumption toward prior highs.
• Stochastics (hourly): Cycling from overbought down to mid/neutral while price rides support — favors a continuation try higher on the next stochastic upswing.

Volatility and bands

• ATR (daily 14): Approx 0.9–1.1. A one-ATR move from 10.3 projects into 11.2–11.4 area, aligning with upside targets.
• Bollinger Bands (daily): Basis ~10.0; upper band estimated ~11.0–11.2; lower ~8.8–8.9. Current at 10.41 sits above basis, room to upper band test.
• Keltner Channels (daily): Midline near 20EMA (~10.0); upper channel around ~10.9–11.0. A breakout push can tag the upper Keltner, in line with target zone.
• Donchian (20D): High ~12.05; low ~8.29; midline ~10.17. Price reclaimed and is holding above the midline — constructive and often a staging area for a run toward the upper boundary.

Volume/flow

• Volume (daily): Healthy participation on up-days since Aug 1; Aug 7 saw solid expansion, with Aug 8 elevated turnover near flat close (absorption). This suggests supply is being met and absorbed near 9.8–10.2.
• OBV (qualitative): Should be curling up since Aug 1, confirming accumulation.
• VWAP (intraday Aug 10): Price oscillating slightly above VWAP into the NY evening, indicating intraday control by buyers and offering a reference buy zone on dips.

Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Tenkan above Kijun or crossing up; price above Tenkan and near/above Kijun, with cloud likely flattening around 10.7–11.0. A push through 10.7 would likely clear into a more definitive bullish regime with Tenkan/Kijun support below.

Fibonacci mapping

• From 11.65 (Jul 27) down to 8.29 (Aug 2):
  • 38.2%: ~9.57 (reclaimed earlier)
  • 50%: ~9.97 (twice defended)
  • 61.8%: ~10.37 (current battle zone)
  • 78.6%: ~10.93 (next magnet)
  • 100%: 11.65
• From 6.69 (Jun 21) to 11.65 (Jul 27):
  • 38.2%: ~9.86 (held), 50%: ~9.17 (never closed below in August). Respecting 38.2% keeps the larger uptrend intact.

Classical patterns and frameworks

• Inverse H&S schematic: Left shoulder ~9.2 (mid-July), head ~8.29 (Aug 2), right shoulder ~9.1–9.6 (late July). Neckline 10.15–10.20. Break/hold above neckline achieved; measured move ~1.0–1.2 implies 11.2–11.4 near term.
• Ascending channel (Aug): Rising lows, contained highs under 10.67. A channel break targets 10.95–11.10.
• Wyckoff: Phase C spring at 8.29, SOS on Aug 7, and current BU/LPS in the 10.2–10.4 zone. Next is markup attempt toward 10.9–11.3.
• Parabolic SAR (daily): Likely flipped below price post-Aug 4 — supportive of a buy-the-dip stance until a close below ~9.8.

Pivot levels (derived from Aug 8 OHLC)

• P ≈ 9.79; R1 ≈ 10.03; R2 ≈ 10.27; R3 ≈ 10.50. Today’s range extended through R3 to ~10.67, a bullish expansion day. Holding above R2–R3 (10.27–10.50) favors upside continuation.

Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (60%): Consolidate 10.25–10.50, then break 10.65–10.70 → run into 10.95–11.10. Stretch target 11.25 near upper Bollinger/Keltner confluence and prior supply shelf.
• Pullback-first (25%): Wick to 10.10–10.20 (sweep of intraday lows/VWAP underside), quick absorption, then same breakout path toward 10.95–11.10.
• Bear risk (15%): Lose 9.97 on a closing basis → slide to 9.62; below 9.62 opens 9.38–9.43. This invalidates the immediate bullish impulse but not necessarily the broader base.

Risk management and trade plan

• Entry: Prefer limit buy near 10.30 (VWAP/EMA support), accepting partial fills; consider a secondary momentum add above 10.70 if breakout triggers (not included in the single-price plan).
• Stop (not part of requested fields but critical): Below 9.78 (beneath round-number 10.00, R1 flip zone 10.03, and Aug 8 close 9.80) to avoid noise. Tighter traders could use 9.97 but may risk stop-out on a liquidity sweep.
• Target: 11.25, aligned with 78.6%–upper band zone and just below heavier supply 11.38–11.65, improving odds of fill.
• R:R estimate (if entry 10.30, stop 9.78, target 11.25): Reward 0.95; risk 0.52; R:R ≈ 1.8:1.

Why Buy here

• Confluence of supports (VWAP/EMA, 50%–61.8% retrace hold, pivot R2-R3 retest) and improving momentum (MACD up, RSI mid-50s) with price pressing beneath a nearby resistance that often yields a quick extension once breached. Volume suggests absorption rather than distribution.

Invalidation

• A decisive hourly close below 10.00 or a daily close back under 9.80 would negate the immediate bullish setup and defer the trade to 9.62/9.38 support tests.

Bottom line

• ORDI is coiling just above a golden-ratio reclaim with bullish breadth across trend, momentum, and volume factors. Favor buying a controlled dip near 10.30 for a push into 10.95–11.25 over the next 24 hours.