ORDI poised for a mid-band bounce: Buying the pullback toward a 10.35–10.45 retest

Summary and context

• Instrument: ORDI/USD
• Timestamp: 2025-08-11 20:56 UTC
• Last price: 9.884
• Horizon: next 24 hours
• Data used: Daily OHLC/Volume (May 14–Aug 11), Hourly OHLC/Volume (Aug 10–Aug 11)

Top-down technical read

1. Market structure (Daily)

• Intermediate trend: After a June trough (~6.58 on Jun 21–22) ORDI built higher lows into a late-July peak (~11.65 on Jul 27), followed by a pullback into early August (~8.50 on Aug 2), then a rebound into Aug 9 (~10.50). Current price (9.88) sits mid-range, above the Aug 2 low and below late-July highs.
• Swing structure: The advance from 8.50 (Aug 2) to 10.50 (Aug 9) was a strong impulsive leg. Today’s session shows a retrace off the early-morning high (10.88) with a lower close near 9.88, placing price close to prior breakout support (9.80–9.90). This is a textbook pullback to a breakout/mid-band area.
• Key daily levels: • Support: 9.85–9.90 (current), 9.73–9.75 (38.2% retrace of 8.50→10.50), 9.61 (Jul 24 pivot), 9.43 (Jul 13), 9.14 (Jul 31), 8.76–8.85 (Aug 1–6 cluster), 8.50 (Aug 2 low). • Resistance: 10.06–10.15 (intraday supply cluster), 10.34–10.35, 10.56, 10.84–10.88 (today’s high zone), 11.07 (Jul 20 close), 11.38 (Jul 22), 11.65 (Jul 27 high).

2. Market structure (Hourly, last 24h)

• Intraday: Price spiked to 10.84 at 06:00, then trended lower with successively lower highs, tagging 9.86–9.88 in the 19:00–21:00 window. This forms a falling channel/flag after a prior upswing, often a continuation pattern. Late-session stabilization near 9.88 suggests selling pressure is abating into a known support pocket.
• Liquidity/imbalances: Heavier selling volume around 11:00–16:00 drove the bulk of the decline; subsequent hours saw diminishing volume on further dips, indicating potential seller exhaustion.

Quantitative indicators and signals A) Trend and moving averages

• 20-day SMA (approx): ~9.89 (computed from last 20 closes up to Aug 9). Current price 9.88 is effectively on the 20-SMA midline (tiny -0.01 deviation), signaling neutral-bullish mean reversion potential.
• 10-day EMA (approx): rising post Aug 2 low and likely just above current price but below 10.10; price pulling back toward it is typical of a trend “breather.”
• 50-day SMA (approx): slightly below/near current price given June lows and July rally (indicative of a maturing base). Net read: price sandwiched near key moving-average equilibrium—supportive for a bounce if not decisively lost.

B) Momentum

• RSI (Daily, est.): Mid-40s to low-50s. After the Aug 2→Aug 9 run, today’s dip likely pulled RSI back toward neutral. Neutral RSI around the 20-SMA favors mean reversion higher unless support breaks.
• RSI (Hourly, est.): Fell into the low-mid 30s during the selloff, then stabilized, consistent with a short-term oversold intraday condition.
• MACD (Daily, qualitative): MACD line recently crossed above signal during the early-August rebound; histogram likely contracting today but still near/above zero. This points to a pullback within a nascent bullish momentum regime rather than a momentum breakdown.
• MACD (Hourly): Negative during the intraday down-channel, with signs of flattening as price stabilizes near support. A bullish cross on lower timeframes would confirm the bounce probability.

C) Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (Daily, 20,2): Mid-band ≈ 20-SMA ≈ 9.89; upper band likely near ~11.0–11.1; lower near ~8.7–8.8. Price is parked at the mid-band after rejecting the upper band intraday—a common reset zone before attempting another push.
• Keltner Channels (ATR-based, Daily): Price has reverted from near the upper channel back toward the centerline; ATR remains elevated but below peak July volatility—good for tactical swing attempts with defined risk.
• ATR (Daily, est.): ~0.8–1.1. Expect 24h realized range to be roughly ±0.9 around mean, accommodating a move back into the 10.3–10.5 zone if buyers reassert.

D) Ichimoku (qualitative approximation)

• Tenkan/Kijun: Price pulling back into a likely Kijun equilibrium around ~9.9–10.0. Flat Kijun often magnetizes price; maintaining above Kijun typically precedes continuation.
• Cloud: After the early-Aug run-up, the near-term cloud likely thinned/turned neutral-bullish. Chikou span proximity to price reflects balance, not breakdown.

E) Volume analytics

• Daily: Aug 8 up-day volume (108.6M) > Aug 9 (83.4M), both higher than many prior days—buyers displayed conviction on the initial rebound. Today’s selling came with less aggregate dominance than those up days—constructive for a pullback rather than distribution.
• Intraday (hourly): Selling intensity peaked late morning/early afternoon UTC; subsequent dips on lighter volume suggest distribution waned into the close. This sets conditions for a relief bid.
• OBV (qualitative): Rising since Aug 2; today’s pullback likely dented but did not reverse the OBV up-trajectory.

F) VWAP and mean reversion

• Session VWAP (approx): Likely around ~10.1–10.2 given heavy volume earlier above 10 and prolonged time spent just below 10. Reversion toward VWAP over the next 24h is a reasonable base case if sellers are spent.

G) Fibonacci geometry

• From Aug 2 low (8.50) to Aug 9 high (10.50): range ≈ 2.00. • 38.2% retrace: 10.50 – 0.382*2.00 ≈ 9.73. Current 9.88 rests above the 38.2%—a healthy, shallow retrace typical of trend continuation. • 50% retrace: ~9.50; 61.8%: ~9.26. These deeper levels align with stronger daily supports if the shallow retrace fails.
• Upside extensions (from latest intraday swing low 9.86): 1.0x ≈ retest 10.35; 1.272–1.414x ≈ 10.50–10.60. These cluster with visible resistance, making them realistic 24h targets if bounce plays out.

H) Candlesticks and pattern recognition

• Daily: Today’s candle shaping as a long upper-wick pullback closing near the 20-SMA. This can be bearish if isolated, but in context of the recent rally it more often represents a reset into support. A stabilization day tomorrow that prints a higher low would convert this into a constructive two-candle pullback.
• Hourly: Falling channel/flag from 06:00 high to 19:00–21:00 lows, with weakening downside momentum—classical setup for a measured bounce toward 10.15–10.35.

I) Cross-check confluence map

• Support confluences near entry zone: • 9.80–9.90: 20-SMA mid-band, prior breakout shelf, intraday demand; just above 38.2% retrace (9.73). • 9.61: swing pivot and potential final defense of the shallow retrace narrative.
• Resistance confluences near targets: • 10.06–10.15: intraday supply, VWAP pocket. • 10.34–10.35: prior supply pivot + 1.0x measured move from 9.86. • 10.50–10.56: Aug 9 high area + Fib extensions + daily supply.

Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (60%): Shallow retrace holds above 9.73–9.80; price bounces toward 10.15 first, then 10.34–10.45. Catalysts: Intraday momentum crossovers, VWAP reversion, buyers defending 20-SMA.
• Range case (25%): Chop between 9.75–10.10 as the market digests today’s selloff before choosing direction. Net neutral PnL unless actively scalped.
• Bear risk (15%): Break and hold below 9.73 opens 9.61, with extension risk to 9.50 (50% retrace). This would delay the bounce and likely shift the 24–48h bias to neutral/bearish.

Trade thesis

• Long bias: Pullback-to-support within a still-constructive early-Aug impulsive structure; price at 20-SMA/Bollinger mid; hourly oversold cooling; Fib 38.2% intact; volume suggests seller fatigue into close; upside targets align with clear supply nodes (10.15/10.35/10.50).
• Risk management (for context): Invalidation on a decisive break/acceptance below 9.73–9.61. Volatility-adjusted stop would sit ~0.20–0.25 below entry; ATR implies a feasible 0.60–0.70 upside within 24h.

Execution plan

• Order type: Buy-the-dip limit in the 9.80–9.85 demand pocket to optimize R:R while acknowledging a potential quick sweep toward 9.75.
• Profit objective (24h): First target 10.15–10.20; primary take-profit 10.35–10.45 where supply thickens and risk of rejection increases.

Conclusion

• Probability-weighted outlook favors a bounce over the next day. Confluence from the 20-SMA, Bollinger mid-band, shallow Fib retracement holding, and intraday seller fatigue supports a tactical long with a tight invalidation below 9.73–9.61. Expect a reversion toward 10.15 initially and, if momentum confirms, an extension toward 10.35–10.45.

Actionable decision

• Bias: Buy (Long)
• Entry: 9.82 (limit) in the demand band 9.80–9.85
• Take profit: 10.45 (within 10.35–10.56 resistance stack)
• Suggested (not required) stop for context: 9.61 (keeps 3:1 R:R vs 10.45 target)