ORDI poised for a 61.8% breakout: buying the 10.05–10.25 retest for a push toward 11.00

Snapshot and context

• Instrument: ORDI/USD
• Current price: 10.3637 (as of 2025-08-12 20:56 UTC)
• Session structure (Aug 12 intraday): Low ~9.35 → steady bid all day → breakout through 10.10–10.20 supply → consolidation 10.25–10.42 into the close. Intraday volume elevated, confirming the push.
• Recent regime: V-shaped recovery from early-Aug lows, printing a sequence of higher lows and higher highs since Aug 2. Momentum improving, breadth broadening, and volume expanding on upswings.

Multi-timeframe trend read

• Higher timeframe (daily):
  • May → June: downtrend culminated in capitulation zone 6.58–6.70 (Jun 21–22), followed by a basing phase into early July.
  • Mid/late July: impulsive advance to 11.97 high (Jul 21 intraday) and 11.59 close (Jul 21), then corrective leg lower into Aug 2 low 8.496.
  • Early August to now: strong trend resumption with higher lows 8.85 (Aug 5), 9.21 (Aug 6), 9.80 (Aug 8), 10.41 (Aug 10 close), and today’s intraday base above 10.15. Structure favors continuation.
• Intraday (hourly):
  • Up-channel from today’s European session: series of higher highs/lows with constructive pullbacks. Break-and-retest of 10.15–10.20 zone held (18:00–19:00), then extension to 10.42. Buyers defended VWAP retests and stepped up on every dip.

Key levels (confluence)

• Supports: 10.05–10.18 (multi-factor buy zone), 9.83–9.85 (neckline and 20D band mid area), 9.67 (pivot S1), 9.20–9.35 (swing HL pocket), 8.85 (right shoulder), 8.50 (cycle low and IHS head).
• Resistances: 10.45 (61.8% Fib of 11.65→8.50 swing), 10.67–10.74 (Aug 9 high and R1), 10.97–11.07 (0.786 Fib/round and R2 proximity), 11.20 (measured IHS target), 11.65–11.97 (major supply).

Classical indicators

• Moving averages (daily):
  • 20D SMA ≈ 9.83 (est): price > 20D by ~5.4% → bullish, room to upper band.
  • 50D SMA (est) ≈ 9.4–9.6: price > 50D → intermediate uptrend intact.
  • Slope: both 20D and 50D curling upward; positive alignment favors dip-buys.
• RSI (14D, daily):
  • Computed across Jul 27 → Aug 10 shows RSI rebounded from ~40 toward neutral; with today’s strength, bias ~48–55. Neutral-to-bullish, far from overbought → upside room.
• MACD (12/26/9, daily):
  • Momentum turned up early Aug; histogram rising, signal line crossover likely occurred ~Aug 6–9. MACD trending toward/above zero → trend confirmation.
• Stochastic (daily):
  • %K rising through %D, mid-to-upper range, not pinned. Supports continuation after shallow pullbacks.

Volatility and bands

• ATR (14D): ~0.9–1.1. Today’s range ~1.07 confirms expansion phase; next 24h can accommodate a 0.7–1.1 move.
• Bollinger Bands (20D): SMA ~9.83; est. stdev ~0.9 → UB ~11.6, LB ~8.0. Price in upper half but not near UB → more upside capacity.
• Keltner Channels (20,1.5 ATR): Price hugging upper KC, typical of trend days; pullbacks to mid-KC (near 10.0–10.1) are buyable.

Volume/flow

• Daily volume has been rising on up days (Aug 7–10 and today), waning on down days → accumulation signature.
• OBV (qualitative) making higher highs since Aug 6 → confirms price action.
• Intraday VWAP: estimated around 10.0–10.05; price held above VWAP in US afternoon; pullbacks toward 10.05–10.18 were bid.

Market structure and patterns

• Inverse Head & Shoulders (Jul 31–Aug 8):
  • Left shoulder ~9.14 (Jul 31), head 8.50 (Aug 2), right shoulder 8.85 (Aug 5).
  • Neckline 9.83–9.85 broken decisively Aug 9; retest zone respected. Measured move ≈ 1.35 → target ≈ 11.20. This target remains open.
• Fibonacci retracements (Jul 27 11.65 → Aug 2 8.50):
  • 38.2%: 9.70 (support)
  • 50%: 10.07 (confluence with pivot P ≈ 10.04)
  • 61.8%: 10.45 (today’s cap) → break here likely accelerates to 10.97–11.07.
  • 78.6%: 10.97 (just below R2), then 100%: 11.65 (prior high).
• Pivot map (based on today’s H/L/C 10.418/9.351/10.364):
  • P ≈ 10.044; S1 ≈ 9.670; R1 ≈ 10.737; R2 ≈ 11.111; R3 ≈ 11.804.
  • Price reclaimed P early and is consolidating below R1 → classic staging for an R1 test next.

Ichimoku (conceptual, daily)

• Price above Tenkan and Kijun with a probable bullish TK cross during Aug 7–9.
• Cloud ahead thin to neutral; Chikou likely flirting with prior price; net positive.

Regime diagnostics and mean reversion

• Z-score vs 20D mean modest (~0.6σ). Far from stretched → less mean-reversion risk, more trend-continuation probability.
• ADX (est.) rising above 20; trend strength building.

Scenario analysis (next 24h)

• Base case (60%): Shallow pullback into 10.05–10.25, buyers defend P/50% Fib → push through 10.45 (61.8% Fib) → test 10.67–10.74 (R1/Aug 9 high). Momentum continuation toward 10.95–11.05 possible if R1 clears with volume.
• Bullish extension (25%): Minimal pullback; sustained bid squeezes above 10.74 quickly → tag 10.97–11.11 (0.786 Fib/R2) with wicks toward 11.20 (IHS target) if broader crypto risk-on.
• Bearish fade (15%): Failure to hold 10.05/P → revisit 9.83–9.85 (neckline). A daily close back below 9.83 would dent the bullish structure; next magnet 9.67 (S1). This is the invalidation area for the tactical long.

Catalysts and cross-asset context (qualitative)

• ORDI typically correlates with BTC/majors. If BTC is stable-to-up, upside scenarios strengthen. No idiosyncratic data provided; trade relies on technicals/flow.

Trade plan (tactical, 24h horizon)

• Bias: Buy dips within 10.05–10.25 confluence (Pivot P 10.04, 50% Fib 10.07, breakout-retest band 10.15–10.20, VWAP region ~10.0–10.05).
• Entry (limit): 10.26 (just above the heart of the retest band to improve fill probability while respecting structure). Alternative momentum add (not primary): stop-entry 10.46 on a clean 61.8% Fib breakout with rising volume.
• Take-profit (target): 10.98 (below the 0.786 Fib 10.97/round 11.00 and under R2 11.11 to improve fill odds). Stretch target if momentum accelerates: 11.07–11.20 (manage actively if in trade).
• Invalidation/stop (risk reference): 9.67 (S1/pocket below neckline). This maintains structure integrity while avoiding noise under P.
• Risk/Reward: From 10.26 entry → TP 10.98 = +0.72 (+7.0%); risk to 9.67 = −0.59 (−5.7%); R:R ≈ 1.2:1, acceptable for a high-probability trend continuation setup.

Why Buy here

• Confluence: uptrend, breakout/retest behavior, rising OBV, price > 20/50 SMAs, RSI not overbought, and nearby multi-tool support (P, VWAP, 50% Fib) create an asymmetric long.
• Path of least resistance: Above 10.45, liquidity pockets likely fuel a move into 10.7x then 11.0x; today’s volume confirms participation.

Risk notes

• A swift failure back below 10.05 and especially below 9.83 would neutralize the near-term bull case and likely target 9.67/9.20. Use discipline around the invalidation band.

24h price outlook

• Expect a probe of 10.67–10.74. If reclaimed and held on 1–4h closes, 10.95–11.05 prints are likely, with tails possible to 11.1x–11.2x. Pullbacks into 10.05–10.25 should be bought while the neckline (9.83–9.85) holds.