ORDI poised for a VWAP-supported push toward 11: buy the dip, not the rip

Executive Summary and Bias

• Instrument: ORDI/USD
• Now: 10.525
• Bias next 24h: Moderately bullish, buy-the-dip preferred, targeting a push into 10.95–11.10 with risk of a shallow pullback to the 10.35–10.45 demand area first.
• Rationale: Reclaimed short-term trend, momentum turning up (RSI/MACD), price above 20D and 50D averages, VWAP reclaimed intraday, and a 50–61.8% retracement recovery from the Aug 1 low with room to test 0.618 (≈10.73) and the prior supply shelf near 10.95–11.10.

1. Market Structure, Trend, and Context

• Higher timeframe context (Daily): • From the May 30 capitulation close at 8.176, price trended down into the ultimate swing low on Jun 22 (6.578), then based and advanced through July. • A strong July leg topped into Jul 21 (close 11.594; intraday high 11.968) and again Jul 27 close 11.650, establishing a broad resistance zone 11.60–12.00. • Pullback into Jul 31 (9.144) and Aug 1 (8.759 low) formed a higher low vs. June; subsequent grind higher reclaimed 10s with a swing high close on Aug 9 (10.501), brief pullback Aug 11 (close 9.600), and a fresh recovery today to 10.525. • Overall, since Aug 1, structure is a series of higher lows (8.76 → 9.21 → 9.60) and higher highs (9.39 → 10.50 → 10.67 intraday), indicating an emerging uptrend within a larger range (support 9.1–9.8, resistance 11.0–11.7).

• Intermediate range: 9.6–11.6 defined by the Aug 11 low re-test and the July tops. Current price sits mid-range with upward momentum, favoring a move toward the upper half of the range if dips are supported.

• 4H/Hourly microstructure (Aug 13): • Progressive higher lows across hours: 10.12 → 10.27 → 10.34 → 10.41 → 10.50, persistent bids on dips. • Intraday resistance band 10.54–10.60 capped several hours; repeated tests suggest weakening supply. • A demand pocket and volume shelf built around 10.30–10.45 (multiple hourly closes and consolidations), making it the preferred dip-buy zone.

2. Moving Averages and Trend Filters

• 20-day SMA: ≈9.75–9.77 (estimated from the last 20 closes). Price at 10.53 trades above the 20SMA: short-term bullish bias.
• 50-day SMA: estimated ≈9.3–9.6 given June weakness and July strength. Price > 50SMA: medium-term trend bias up.
• MA posture: Likely 20D > 50D > 200D (200D not computed here), with price above both short- and mid-term MAs, indicating trend support on pullbacks.
• Hourly EMAs (qualitative): Price trading above 20/50-hour EMAs most of the session; shallow pullbacks are bought.

3. Momentum: RSI, Stochastics, MACD

• Daily RSI(14): Est. 54–58 (neutral-bullish). Off the Aug 11 pullback, RSI is rising, consistent with an advancing swing.
• Hourly RSI: Oscillating 55–65 for much of today; cooled modestly on minor pullbacks without breaking bull structure.
• Daily MACD: After turning up from Aug 1, histogram briefly softened on Aug 11 then flipped back toward positive with today’s advance—suggestive of a zero-line cross and renewed upside impulse.
• Stochastics (hourly): Recently cycled from overbought and resetting near mid-zone; favors continuation higher if price holds above VWAP/dip zones.

4. Volatility and Bands

• Daily ATR(14): Estimated ≈0.90–1.05. A 24h move of 0.6–1.0 is typical and supports a 10.95–11.10 target if the bid persists.
• Daily Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid-band ≈9.75; likely upper band ≈11.4–11.6. Price sits in the upper half of the envelope with room to run toward the upper band before encountering larger supply.
• Hourly Bands: Tightening through mid-day then expanding upward; current posture implies further upside after minor mean-reversion dips.

5. Volume, VWAP, and Profile

• Volume context: Rising participation on up-hours today (notably 08:00–10:00 UTC), consistent with accumulation.
• Intraday VWAP: Estimated around 10.42–10.48 given today’s tape; last price 10.53 > VWAP implies buyers in control. Pullbacks to VWAP have been defended.
• Volume profile (recent sessions): Visible shelf at 10.30–10.45 and another minor shelf near 9.95–10.05. If 10.30–10.45 holds as a ledge, it can act as a springboard to test 10.75, then 11.0–11.1.

6. Support/Resistance Mapping

• Immediate supports: 10.45 (VWAP/ledges), 10.35–10.40 (hourly base), 10.05–10.15 (daily cluster), 9.80–9.60 (Aug 7–11 pivot and key fail-safe).
• Resistances ahead: 10.55–10.60 intraday lid; 10.73 (0.618 retrace); 10.95–11.10 prior supply; 11.27–11.33 (May 28/29 zone and 78.6% retrace area); 11.60–11.97 range highs.

7. Fibonacci Framework

• Swing reference: High 11.65 (Jul 27 close) / alt 11.97 (Jul 21 high) to low 8.76 (Aug 1).
• 38.2% ≈ 9.99; 50% ≈ 10.36; 61.8% ≈ 10.73; 78.6% ≈ 11.27.
• Alignment: Price reclaimed the 50% (10.36) and is probing toward 61.8% (10.73). A sustained hold above 10.36–10.45 increases probability of tagging 10.73, then probing 10.95–11.10.

8. Ichimoku (qualitative approximation)

• Price above Tenkan (≈10.47) and Kijun (≈10.35–10.40), with a rising Tenkan > Kijun configuration—bullish short-term.
• Price likely trading near/above the cloud on lower timeframes; Chikou close to price but clearing overhead if 10.60 breaks, adding confirmation on continuation.

9. Elliott Wave Read

• From Aug 1 low (8.76): Potential impulsive structure: Wave 1 to Aug 4 (9.39), Wave 2 pullback to Aug 5 (8.85), Wave 3 to Aug 9 (10.50), Wave 4 to Aug 11 (9.60), setting up a Wave 5 that commonly targets above Wave 3: 10.9–11.1, aligning with resistance and ATR.

10. Pivots (Aug 11 H/L/C = 10.876/9.502/9.600)

• Classic Pivot P ≈ 9.993
• R1 ≈ 10.484 (now reclaimed)
• R2 ≈ 11.367
• S1 ≈ 9.109
• Trading above R1 favors attempts toward the R1–R2 band; R2 aligns with the broader resistance cluster near 11.3–11.4.

11. Candlestick and Pattern Diagnostics

• Daily prints since Aug 9: Strong close (Aug 9), controlled dip (Aug 10), sharper pullback (Aug 11), and now a bullish follow-through day reclaiming key moving averages—indicative of buy-the-dip behavior.
• Hourly: Multiple upper-wick probes into 10.55–10.60 with progressively higher bases: this often precedes a breakout after supply thins.

12. Probability Pathing Next 24 Hours

• Base case (55%): Minor dip to 10.35–10.45 (VWAP/EMA catch), then push to 10.73 (0.618), continuation into 10.95–11.10. Consolidation below 11.10 into end of window.
• Bull extension (25%): Direct break 10.60 without meaningful dip, fast tag 10.73, momentum carry to 11.20–11.35 if volume expands and broader crypto risk-on persists.
• Bear risk (20%): Failure to hold 10.35; slide to 10.05–10.15. A daily close under 10.00 would negate the immediate bull case and re-open 9.60 and 9.20, but odds currently lower given reclaimed momentum.

13. Risk Management Notes

• Key invalidation for the long thesis on 24h horizon: sustained trade below 10.05 and especially a daily close <9.95.
• If entering on dip 10.40–10.47, a tactical stop would sit 10.15–10.20 to keep R:R near 1:2 targeting 11.05.

14. Synthesis and Trade Plan

• Confluence bullish: above 20D/50D, MACD turning up, RSI mid-50s with room, VWAP reclaimed, 50% Fib reclaimed with clear magnet to 0.618 at 10.73 and supply at 10.95–11.10. Hourly structure supports buying dips rather than chasing.
• Execution: Place a buy limit in the 10.44–10.47 zone. If the dip does not materialize and 10.60 breaks with volume, a secondary breakout entry can be considered, targeting the same 10.95–11.10 zone.

Decision and Targets

• Decision: Buy (Long)
• Optimal Open: 10.46 (limit buy on a controlled pullback toward VWAP/EMA cluster)
• Primary Target (Close/TP): 11.05 (first test of upper supply band, aligns with Wave 5 projection and ATR capacity)
• Timeframe: Within the next 24 hours, contingent on holding above 10.35 on pullbacks.

Contingencies

• If price slices through 10.35 with momentum and holds below, stand down on the long idea; reassess near 10.05–9.95 for a fresh reaction. If instead price impulsively breaks and holds above 10.73, consider trailing toward 11.20–11.30 using a stop under 10.60 to capture extension.