ORDI poised for a pivot snapback: Buying the 8.90 support for a 24h mean-reversion to ~9.35

Step-by-step multi-framework analysis of ORDI (last price ≈ 8.9609)

Context and structure

• Timeframes used: Daily (swing context), 4H/1H (tactical next-24h execution), intraday VWAP context for day-session mean reversion.
• Objective: Forecast next 24 hours, identify optimal entry and exit, and select Buy or Sell based on probability-weighted setups using multiple, corroborating tools.

1. Price action and market structure

• Daily swing: From a late-July peak (~11.65 on 7/27), ORDI pulled back through early August (~8.50 on 8/2), rebounded to ~10.50 (8/9–8/10), then slid again into mid-August. Recent daily closes: 8/14: 8.99 (big down), 8/15: 8.99, 8/16: 9.31, 8/17: 9.26, and now 8/18 intraday: ~8.96. This reads as a choppy corrective leg after the 8/13 local high (10.6163).
• Key levels (spotlight): • Support: 8.85–8.90 (tested today intraday), 8.65 (8/15 low), 8.50 (8/1–8/2 zone).
  • Resistance: 9.20–9.30 (intraday supply and 1H swing highs), 9.35–9.38 (38.2% retrace from 8/13→8/15 swing; also daily pivot area), 9.60–9.65 (50% retrace/short-term MA confluence), 9.83–9.85 (prior distribution shelf), 10.17, then 10.62 (8/13 high).
• 1H structure (8/18): Lower highs across the session after a failed push above ~9.10–9.11 around 12:00 UTC. However, price is repeatedly defended near 8.88–8.92. This is classic compression against a nearby support shelf, often followed by either a stop-run flush to 8.65 or a mean-reversion pop back to the day pivot (~9.35).
• Bottom line: The immediate structure is neutral-to-slightly bearish intraday, but proximity to a well-defined support zone improves the skew for a tactical long if 8.85–8.90 continues to hold.

2. Moving averages and trend assessment (Daily)

• 20-day SMA: Approx ~9.50 (using last 20 closes). Price is below the 20SMA, signaling near-term bearish bias but within striking distance for a mean reversion pop.
• 10-day EMA (approx): ~9.6–9.7 (given the clustered closes 8/7–8/17). Price is below the 10EMA, confirming momentum slowdown from the early-August rebound.
• 50-day SMA (approx): ~9.3–9.7 (averaging June’s 7–8 range vs July’s 10–11). Price near/below this band suggests a contested medium-term trend; not outright downtrend, but not trending up either.
• Read: Trend softness, but not a clean breakdown—more of a choppy correction. That tends to favor fades back toward mean when entries are taken near support.

3. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI: Likely mid-40s (neutral to mildly bearish). Not oversold, but close enough to the lower half to allow a bounce without requiring dramatic momentum shifts.
• 1H RSI: Hovering around low-to-mid 40s across today’s sessions, failing to embed sub-30. This supports the idea of consolidation rather than trend acceleration down—room for a 1H bounce into resistance.
• MACD (Daily): Negative cross after 8/13 high, histogram softening but still below zero. On 1H, MACD is near flat/negative with potential for a small positive turn if price reclaims >9.10.
• Read: Momentum is not outright bullish, but the lack of capitulation and repeated higher-timeframe supports suggest a tactical bounce more likely than a collapse—unless 8.85 decisively fails.

4. Volatility and Bollinger Bands (Daily)

• 20SMA ≈ 9.50 with an estimated 2σ band width ~1.4–1.6 (given recent 8.5–10.6 dispersion), placing the lower band roughly around ~8.0–8.1. Current price is in the lower half of the band but above the lower band, a classic mean-reversion posture.
• 1H bands: Tightening with price hugging the lower half; a volatility compression often precedes a pop towards the mid-band/upper band if support holds.
• Read: Volatility contraction near support often yields a reflex move upward, aiming at mid-band/pivot zones.

5. VWAP and volume profile

• August composite VWAP (approx): Likely around 9.8–10.0 given multiple high-volume sessions in the 9.8–10.5 area. Price currently trades well below that—macro value remains higher, which sets up occasional reversion attempts.
• Intraday (8/18) VWAP: ~8.97–9.02. Current price ~8.96 sits around the day’s value, suggesting no persistent intraday imbalance; it’s a two-sided auction around support.
• Volume profile nodes: 9.0 ± 0.1 is a visible HVN from recent weeks. Breaking cleanly below could rapidly usher in 8.65–8.50, while holding it typically invites a return to 9.30–9.35.
• Read: Two-sided, balanced day at support—a good environment for fading extremes with tight risk.

6. Pivot points (derived from 8/17 H/L/C)

• P ≈ 9.3511; R1 ≈ 9.5477; S1 ≈ 9.0608.
• Today’s action: Traded below P and spent time around/under S1, with dips to ~8.86–8.90. A classic setup is a revert-to-pivot move once S1 stabilizes.
• Read: The most probable bounce target within 24h is back to P (≈9.35). If momentum improves, a probe to R1 (~9.55) is possible but less probable within 24h given overhead supply.

7. Fibonacci levels (two relevant swings)

• Fibo A: 8/13 high (10.6163) → 8/15 low (8.6497)
  • 38.2%: ~9.38; 50%: ~9.63; 61.8%: ~9.89
  • Price is oscillating under 9.38 and well below 9.63/9.89—clear resistance gauntlet above.
• Fibo B: 7/27 high (11.65) → 8/2 low (8.496)
  • 61.8%: ~10.5, which was tagged and rejected 8/9–8/10. This validates the larger corrective bias.
• Read: The 9.35–9.38 band is a magnet for mean reversion, but 9.60–9.90 is heavy resistance; targeting the first band is logical for a 24h tactical play.

8. Ichimoku (approx, Daily)

• Price below Tenkan (~9.6) and Kijun (~9.9), likely in or near the cloud’s lower region after the mid-August break.
• Interpretation: Below conversion/base lines = corrective mode; however, if price holds near cloud bottom/support, snaps to Tenkan can occur quickly.
• Read: Room for a Tenkan test is present, but 24h likely caps below Kijun; hence a constrained long target is prudent (~9.35–9.40, stretch 9.55).

9. Wyckoff lens

• Post-markdown from 10.6 to 8.65, we’ve seen an automatic rally to ~9.31 and a secondary test around ~8.86–8.90 today. If that ST holds as a higher low above 8.65, the structure leans towards accumulation. Failure would imply a markdown to revisit 8.65/8.50.
• Read: The burden of proof is on sellers to push through 8.85. Until then, responsive buyers are likely to fade dips.

10. Elliott wave (tactical hypothesis)

• A down leg (10.616 → 8.650), then B bounce (~9.31), now possible C test. A measured C to A fractal would threaten 8.65; however, current price action shows stabilization before equality is reached.
• Read: The structure doesn’t preclude a dip to 8.65, but the immediate order flow favors a modest bounce first.

11. Pattern diagnostics

• Intraday: Descending channel on 1H with multiple touches, but with flattening lows around 8.88–8.92 while tops keep stepping down; that’s pressure building. A minor channel break over ~9.10–9.15 could release into 9.30–9.38 quickly.
• Candles: No major reversal candle printed yet on the daily, but repeated lower wicks intraday in the 8.88–8.92 zone reflect demand.

12. Probabilistic pathing for next 24 hours

• Base case (55–60%): Hold 8.85–8.90 and revert to 9.30–9.38 (daily pivot/Fibo 38.2%), with intraday stalls at 9.10–9.20.
• Bear case (25–30%): Clean break and acceptance below 8.85 → momentum to 8.65, with risk of a stop-run to 8.50 before responsive buying emerges.
• Bull stretch (10–15%): Strong impulsive reclaim >9.38 leads to 9.55 (R1) tag; low probability within 24h given overhead supply and momentum state.

Synthesis and decision

• Despite a soft trend and negative momentum bias, ORDI is trading at a defended support within a balanced intraday auction, below the 20SMA yet in the lower half of Bollinger Bands, and just under the daily S1. The setup favors a tactical long for a mean-reversion move back toward the daily pivot/Fibo confluence around 9.35–9.38.
• Risk management note (contextual): Invalidation sits below 8.85; a protective stop would typically live ~8.64–8.69 to account for wicks, but this is not part of the requested fields—offered for completeness only.

Execution plan (tactical)

• Entry: Stagger/limit near 8.88–8.92 to buy support.
• Target (24h): 9.35–9.38 (take profit into pivot/Fibo).
• If momentum outperforms: trail partials toward 9.55 (R1), but base case TP remains 9.35 for higher hit rate.

Conclusion

• The confluence of support at 8.85–8.90, daily pivot pullback mechanics, and intraday balance suggests a higher-probability mean-reversion bounce to ~9.35 within 24 hours. Direction: Buy (Long).