ORDI: Fade the Bounce — Short 8.75 Into Supply, Target 8.35 Over the Next 24 Hours

Executive summary and 24h outlook

• Bias: Mildly bearish continuation with sell-the-rip setup. Expect early retest of 8.52–8.60, potential extension to 8.35–8.30 if momentum accelerates; relief bounces likely capped below 8.90–9.05.
• Expected 24h range: 8.30–8.95 (base case 8.45–8.85). Probability skew: Bearish 60%, Neutral range 25%, Bullish squeeze 15%.
• Trade idea: Short a bounce into 8.75 (±0.05) aiming for 8.35. Manage risk above 9.06.

1. Price action and market structure

• Daily structure: Since the Aug 13 swing high (10.62), ORDI has printed a sequence of lower highs and lower lows: 10.62 → 10.02/10.22 (LH) → 11.65 spike on Jul 27 then lower high cluster in early Aug → break on Aug 14 (large red day to 8.99) → lower low on Aug 18 (8.90 close) → fresh intraday low today at 8.52. Classic bearish trend.
• Intraday (hourly) structure 8/19: A descending channel with persistent lower highs (9.00 → 8.95 → 8.93 → 8.90) and lower lows (to 8.52). The last bounce failed at 8.69–8.75 area. Sellers defending every uptick.
• Key levels from recent action: • Resistance: 8.75 (intraday supply/S1), 8.88–9.02 (daily pivot area), 9.27 (next resistance/Fibo 38.2 of short swing), 9.57–9.60 (50%–confluence), ~9.80–10.00 (heavier supply). • Support: 8.60 (S2), 8.52 (today’s low), 8.38–8.35 (structural shelf), 8.29 (Aug 2 swing low), 8.18 (May 30 capitulation low).

2. Moving averages and trend diagnostics

• 20-DMA (approx): ~9.4–9.6. Price (8.64) is below the 20-DMA and has been riding the lower side since Aug 14. Bearish short-term trend.
• 50-DMA (approx): ~9.1–9.3. Price sits below or near this band, indicating a bearish-to-neutral medium-term bias leaning down. The 20-DMA is rolling over and converging downward toward the 50-DMA (a short-term bearish alignment).
• Slope and placement: Price < 20DMA < ~cloud mid; negative slope on the short MAs confirms momentum with the bears.

3. Momentum and oscillators

• Daily RSI(14): Using the last 14 closes into Aug 18, RSI ~50. After today’s drop to 8.64, RSI likely in the low/mid-40s. This is neutral-to-bearish (room to fall without being deeply oversold).
• Hourly RSI/Stoch: Intraday oscillators reached oversold (<30) on the 8.52 print and bounced modestly; they are resetting but remain below midline, consistent with selling pressure on rallies.
• MACD (daily): The 12/26 MACD histogram has rolled negative since mid-August; signal line cross is bearish and below zero line, favoring trend-follow-through on the downside rather than sustained reversals.

4. Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) daily (approx): ~0.8–0.9. Current day’s realized range (≈0.47 so far) is below ATR, leaving room for expansion within 24 hours—typically in the trend direction.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid-band near the 20-DMA (~9.5). Price is below mid and closer to the lower band; it has been hugging/approaching the lower band since Aug 14. This supports a sell-rallies stance until a close back above the mid-band.

5. Volume, participation, and accumulation/distribution

• Aug 14’s high-volume sell-off (largest daily volume in this recent stretch) signals distribution. Subsequent green days printed on lower volume versus red days—classic bearish volume profile. Intraday recovery attempts today also met with increased supply near 8.70–8.75. OBV proxy is drifting down, corroborating net distribution.

6. Fibonacci mapping (confluence check)

• Major swing: Jul 28 high 12.05 to Aug 2 low 8.29 (range 3.76). • 23.6% = 9.18, 38.2% = 9.73, 50% = 10.07, 61.8% = 10.41. Price failed to hold above 9.18 and rolled over—bearish.
• Minor swing: Aug 13 high 10.62 to today’s intraday low 8.52 (range 2.10). • 23.6% ≈ 9.02, 38.2% ≈ 9.27, 50% ≈ 9.57, 61.8% ≈ 9.86. Expect supply to defend 9.02–9.27 if price bounces; optimal short zones cluster under 9.00.

7. Pivots and intraday roadmap (classic daily pivots from Aug 18 H/L/C)

• Pivot P ≈ 9.01; R1 ≈ 9.16; R2 ≈ 9.43; S1 ≈ 8.75; S2 ≈ 8.60.
• Today: price traded below P early, rejected S1 retests, tagged S2 and pierced to 8.52. A bounce to S1 (8.75) is a logical first-seller zone; above that, P (≈9.01) is the next inflection. This perfectly aligns with the Fibonacci 23.6% (~9.02) and the hourly LH cluster.

8. Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price below Tenkan and Kijun; projected cloud overhead near 9.7–10.2. With lagging span likely beneath price and cloud, the configuration is bearish. Any bounces into the Kijun region should face supply.

9. VWAP and mean-reversion context (intraday)

• While precise intraday VWAP is not computed here due to patchy hourly volume, the behavior—failing on attempts to reclaim the prior session’s pivot area and sustaining trade below the day’s average price—indicates sellers control the tape. Into the U.S. session, fades of pushes back to the session VWAP tend to work when structure is lower-high/lower-low.

10. Pattern read and tactical view

• Descending channel: Clear on the hourly; offers short entries on the upper boundary (8.75–8.90) with stops above 9.05–9.10.
• Bear flag/continuation: The tight consolidations after drops (Aug 15–17 near 9.25; today around 8.65–8.75) keep breaking lower—classic continuation behavior.
• No confirmed reversal pattern (no double bottom with neckline break, no bullish divergence of size on daily). Small intraday bullish divergences get faded.

11. Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Bearish continuation (≈60%): Early/Mid-session retest of 8.60 → 8.52; if liquidity thins or BTC risk-off, extension to 8.38–8.30; settlement ~8.40–8.55.
• Rangebound mean reversion (≈25%): Chop between 8.55–8.90; failed breakouts revert toward mid of range (~8.70–8.75).
• Bullish squeeze (≈15%): News/market beta squeeze lifts to 8.95–9.05; fade likely at 9.02–9.27 unless strong volume expansion flips profile.

12. Risk management and execution plan

• Primary plan (Short): Enter on a controlled bounce into 8.75 (limit zone 8.70–8.80). Stop: 9.06 (above pivot P/round number and minor LHs). Target: 8.35 (first take profit ahead of 8.29). R:R ≈ 1.2–1.4 depending on exact fill; improves significantly if entry occurs closer to 8.85–8.90.
• Alternative plan (if price flushes first): If 8.52 breaks impulsively, avoid chasing; wait for a throwback to 8.60–8.70 to re-enter short. If a sharp reclaim of 9.02 occurs with volume, step aside—structure is then transitioning to range or squeeze.

13. Why “Sell” here? (signal confluence)

• Structure: Lower highs/lows on daily and hourly; persistent supply zones respected.
• Momentum: MACD negative, RSI sub-50 and falling; intraday oscillators reset while trend remains down—ideal for selling rips.
• Location: Price under 20-DMA and pivot P; bounces are into stacked resistance (S1 → P → Fib 23.6%).
• Volume: Down days on heavier volume; rallies on lighter volume—distribution signature.
• Volatility: ATR suggests room for a push to 8.35 without being extreme.

Bottom line prediction (24h): Drift lower with attempts to fade bounces; 8.52 likely retested; 8.35–8.30 achievable if risk assets remain soft. Relief pops likely stall 8.75–9.02.