ORDI: Fading the Bounce – Short the 8.90 Supply, Target 8.56 as Downtrend Persists

Overview

• Instrument: ORDI/USD
• Current price: 8.7494
• Timeframe reviewed: Daily (May 24–Aug 21) and Hourly (Aug 20–21)
• Goal: Predict next 24h and set an optimal tactical trade plan

1. Market Structure and Trend

• Daily structure: Clear downtrend from Jul 28 peak (~12.05 intraday on Jul 28) to Aug 19 low (8.48). Recent bounce to ~9.12 on Aug 20 failed below the 38.2% retracement of the 12.05 → 8.48 leg (38.2% ≈ 9.85), indicating weak corrective strength.
• Lower highs and lower lows persist since late July: 12.05 → 11.97 → 11.65 → 11.07 → 10.67 → 9.85/9.80 region, now 9.1 failed. The path of least resistance remains down.
• Hourly structure (last 24h): Descending channel with a series of LH/LL from ~9.07 to ~8.63 and a modest bounce to ~8.79–8.80 into the close. Price is trading below intraday swing resistances 8.85–8.90 and 8.95–9.00.

2. Key Levels (confluence of S/R, liquidity, and fibs)

• Supports:
  • 8.63–8.70: Intraday shelf and today’s low zone; first liquidity pool below.
  • 8.48: Aug 19 swing low; major liquidity magnet; likely to attract a sweep if 8.63 breaks.
  • 8.29–8.31: August 2 swing low and 1.272 fib extension of 8.48→9.12 pullback.
• Resistances:
  • 8.85–8.95: Intraday supply from repeated rejections; midpoint of today’s range; ~50% retrace of today’s downswing (9.07→8.63 ≈ 8.85) and near 61.8% at ~8.93.
  • 9.00–9.12: Round number + hourly swing highs; break/hold above would threaten shorts.
  • 9.26–9.31: Minor daily pivot; then 9.60–9.85 (prevalent HVN/38.2% of the 12.05→8.48 fall ~9.85).

3. Moving Averages and Trend Filters

• 20-day SMA (approx): ~9.37 (derived from last 20 closes). Price at 8.75 is below the 20SMA, signaling bearish bias.
• 50-day SMA (qualitative): Likely above current price given the July rally then August decline; trend filter remains negative.
• Short-term EMAs (hourly): Price trades below typical fast EMAs (e.g., 9/21), consistent with a short-term downtrend.

4. Momentum and Oscillators

• Daily RSI (qualitative): Drifting in a bearish regime (mid-30s to low-40s). Not deeply oversold; room to push lower toward support before any strong mean-reversion.
• Hourly RSI: Stabilizing after today’s 8.63 print, but remains sub-50 on bounces—momentum rallies are getting sold.
• MACD (daily): Negative line and histogram during the August downswing; histogram appears to be flattening after Aug 19, consistent with short-covering bounces but not with a full reversal.
• Stochastics (hourly): Likely cycling up from oversold to neutral; often aids a fade setup into 8.88–8.93.

5. Volatility and Bands

• Daily ATR (qualitative): Elevated versus June; individual day ranges of ~0.6–1.0 are common. A 24h move from 8.90 to the mid-8.5s is realistic.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2 on daily): Mid-band near ~9.37, lower band roughly near ~8.0. Price trades below the mid-band, in the lower half of the envelope—bearish but not band-riding oversold. Expect rallies toward 8.9–9.1 to be sold while under the mid-band.

6. Volume/Flow

• Daily volume: Spikes on down days (e.g., Aug 14) suggest distribution on strength and heavier participation on declines. Recent bounce attempts occur on comparatively lighter volume.
• Hourly relative volume: Modest on bounces; no signs of aggressive demand absorption overhead.
• OBV (qualitative): Trend lower since late July, aligning with price—a sign that rallies lack accumulation follow-through.

7. Ichimoku (directional read)

• Daily: Price likely below Tenkan and Kijun and under the cloud after the August slide—typical bearish state. A decisive recovery would require reclaiming Tenkan/Kijun and closing into/above the cloud; not evident yet.
• Hourly: Trading under a thin cloud, with Tenkan/Kijun capping rallies near 8.88–8.95. This supports the thesis to fade pops into that zone.

8. Fibonacci Mapping

• Major swing: 12.05 → 8.48 decline.
  • 38.2% retrace ≈ 9.85; 50% ≈ 10.27; 61.8% ≈ 10.69. The bounce stalled before even tagging 38.2% => weak corrective bid.
• Intraday swing: 9.07 → 8.63.
  • 50% ≈ 8.85, 61.8% ≈ 8.93. This aligns with the hourly supply zone for a low-risk fade.
• Extensions (if 8.48 breaks): 1.272 ≈ 8.31; 1.618 ≈ 8.02—potential medium-term magnets, though the 24h horizon likely focuses on 8.55–8.48.

9. Pattern Recognition

• Bear flag / descending channel on the hourly: Tight corrective bounces within a broader downleg.
• Potential liquidity sweep setup: A push to 8.88–8.93 to harvest short-term buy stops, followed by a roll-over toward 8.63 and possibly a probe of 8.55/8.48.
• No strong bullish reversal candlestick on daily at current zone; Aug 20 rebound had no follow-through.

10. VWAP/Profiles (qualitative)

• Anchored VWAP from early August likely sits above current price given the series of lower highs; price remains below value—rallies back to prior HVNs (9.0–9.3) tend to encounter supply.
• Local point of control appears higher than spot, consistent with overhead resistance.

11. Risk Scenarios (next 24h)

• Base case (55%): Mean-reversion bounce into 8.88–8.93 fails; price rotates down to 8.60–8.56; potential wick into 8.50–8.48 depending on broader crypto tone.
• Bullish alt (25%): Impulsive reclaim above 9.00–9.12 with strong volume turns the day into a squeeze toward 9.30–9.36; would negate the short setup near 8.90.
• Bearish extension (20%): Weak bounce tops <8.85 and sellers press directly through 8.63; daily retest/sweep of 8.48. Odds of a clean breakdown increase if BTC weakens in tandem.

12. Execution Plan (tactical)

• Rationale to Sell: Trend down, price below 20SMA and below intraday EMAs; hourly supply sits at 8.88–8.93 with fib confluence and repeated rejections; momentum rallies lack volume; attractive risk-reward to fade into resistance.
• Optimal entry (limit short): 8.90 (in the 8.88–8.93 supply/fib zone).
• Profit target (T1): 8.56 (pre-breakdown shelf above 8.48; achievable within ATR for 24h). Stretch target (T2, discretionary): 8.48.
• Invalidation/stop (discipline, not part of output fields): 9.15 (above round number and recent intraday pivots), or tighter 9.12 if execution quality is high. That yields an initial R:R ≈ 1:1.3 to T1 and ≈ 1:2 to T2.
• Contingency: If price fails to reach 8.90 and breaks 8.69 first, consider a momentum short on a retest of 8.69–8.72 with the same T1 8.56 and tighter invalidation above 8.90.

13. Timeframe Alignment

• Daily: Bearish bias intact.
• Hourly: Bearish channel, with a tactically shortable rally pocket.
• Conclusion: Short rallies into 8.88–8.93; expect rotation to 8.56; watch 8.48 for potential sweep.

Predicted 24h Path

• Early bounce to 8.88–8.93 → rejection → drift to 8.60–8.56. Optional spike lower to test 8.50–8.48 if broader market is risk-off. Any sustained hold above 9.12 would challenge the short thesis and open 9.30–9.36.